Primo’s Battleground Predictions
And so we come down to the last day of the 2016 election, an election which defied all experts’ predictions by lasting 1000 years, it feels like. I’ve never felt so disgusted and disappointed by 40% of America’s population than I have by the ones who have chosen Donald Trump as their champion.
As we discussed back in May, I never felt that the race would get out of control to the point where Trump could actually win. The dark midnight of my soul, which comes at least once a cycle, came when the polls dipped when Hillary took ill. Nothing else that has occurred met the definition of a potential game-changer. For me, because of Trump’s misogyny, it was always a question, not of IF she would win, but by HOW MUCH she would win. Let’s take a look at where things stand.
States some still consider “in play”
Without throwing any swing states into play, Clinton holds a 195 to 82 Electoral Vote (EV) lead over Trump right now.
“Swing” states not really in play:
For Hillary, the following states are in the bag, no matter what the polls and other folks are saying: WI, MI, PA, VA, CO, NM. This puts EV at 268 Hillary, 82 Trump
Swing states lost by Trump in the first 5 minutes of his campaign:
Due to early voting by Latinos and African Americans, Hillary has already booked enough votes to win FL, NC and NV if her GOTV continues to excel: Hillary EV 318, Trump 82. If Trump won everything after this, it would be 318-220. Losing by 98 EV is Trump’s best-case scenario, but it would make for a long night waiting for California.
Trump, prepare to meet thy Doom.
Most likely swing states to also go Hillary:
If she’s having a good night, and I think she will, AZ and GA will go for Hillary, also due to the early voting, minorities and the ground game. There’s also a Nebraska elector (they and ME do not have winner take all) that I think she will get if she’s performing at this level.
Swing states that are hard to predict:
Ohio, despite my living here, remains to some degree a mystery because of the high likelihood of a Portman victory requiring some degree of ticket-splitting to bring Hillary home. It’s possible; it’s also possible that under-performing Trump turnout could make this a big blue bump on the tote board. With the tightness of the polls, I give this to Hillary based on ground game. In New Hampshire, the polls have gone haywire. But I feel a Hillary/Hassan daily double coming out of there. There’s also a Maine elector that has been solidly Trump up to this point.
Swing states that Trump has a decent chance to hold on to:
Iowa, Indiana, Missouri and South Carolina have all shown signs of softening at various times. Again, with the paucity and unreliability of polls in this area, it’s hard to quantify by how much. If anything, the Comey distraction prevented expansion into this section of the board. But if Hillary starts racking up a 7-point and higher national win, these are the states that will start to fall for her. Texas, too. Maybe even Alaska could flip, while Utah could very easily go to Trump, McMullin or Clinton.
My predictions:
First, I believe the poll averages have consistently been low by 1-3% and the organizational disparity is good for another 1-3% for Hillary. Also, once in the voting booth, a lot of Americans are going to have a small little come-to-Jesus moment and decide that a vote for anyone BUT Hillary is a dangerous flirt with the devil and disaster.
Based on this, I think that her margin of victory will be 7%-10% (or more). The most likely range of Electoral votes will be 340-360, but if we get up to that 10%, we will be looking at the 400 EV blowout that has been in play all summer. If the Clinton people hammer the turnout, and the Trump people stay home in enervated dejection, it could go as high as 450.
I think that the Senate will turn blue, and there is even a chance that the House is still in play. Everyone else thinks not, but if this becomes a 10-point landslide, or more, then everything is fair game.
I will get SO drunk!
I just returned from the grocery with a fresh lemon and lime. Tomorrow they will enjoy full employment with benefits of gin and vodka.
1From your typing fingers to the eyeballs of whatever gods might be paying attention.
2If, in fact Hillary does run the board, my actions on Wed. will be to contact the Sanders camp to enlist in whatever way they need me. I would seriously love to put as many nails in “W”‘s proverbial coffin as possible.
It may be a fantasy, but here’s to dreams!
3I fear this is overly optimistic…..but I sure hope you’re right.
4My Daddy would say, You can pray to Jesus all you want. But you better give Satan his due. Drumpf did some thing no one thought could happen,– He got Brown people to vote. Lets just hope it becomes a habit.
5If Alaska goes for Hillary, I will be SO happy! We’ve got so many evangelicals and oil types (the pipeline workers, etc.) who have come up here that I would be both amazed and thrilled to the point of tears. But I have a bottle of wine chilling for the Hillary celebration even if my backward, redneck state disappoints (again).
6That big blue Texas is oh so pretty! I’m watching the returns from a party sponsored event – should be the perfect place to be when they call Texas for Hillary! Holding my breath…..
7Primo, I’ll settle for your second map; my one-time wild hopes for the third have burned up. The news seems to be okay but the emails I’m still getting by the bushel predict Hell unleashed on Earth unless I send them all umpteen more wheelbarrows of money ASAP. Sure hoping they’re wrong about that. And hoping that GOP attempts to suppress and intimidate voters just make people MORE determined to vote!
8Well, the Cubs did win the World Series…
9Your optimism is refreshing. I”m hoping for Hillary winning by a small margin. Her nonstop work in government, with The Clinton Foundation, and yes, giving speeches to Wall Street have kept her in the public eye and in Republican cross hairs. The bashing, the lies, the innuendo, the conspiracy theories have continued unabated for two decades fanned on by the press. It has had an effect. Let’s just hope reason prevails.
With respect, Primo, if you watched 60 Minutes last night and saw the raw, almost primal anger of even HRC supporters, you have to recognize that at least some of those 40% of Americans who support Trump have a real reason to be pissed at the system. Trump has simply channeled that anger and if he just happens to win, and ultimately disappoints them again, we’re in real trouble. They have a right to be heard, and for the government to acknowledge their plight and just work better at representing all Americans. Unfortunately, this campaign didn’t focus much on resolving that anger, and we can only hope that President Clinton acknowledges a need to address some real problems like health care reform and job training. Democratic majorities in Congress would be a big help.
Another reason for everyone to vote.
10OT: Primo… I mean no disrespect… I love your stuff. But today, at RudePundit, I read a from-the-gut essay on why he’s voting for Hillary.
ALERT: He’s raw and vulgar. NSFW or Momma or those with sensitivities to swearing. But I think it’s the most straight-forward, unvarnished justification of a vote for Hillary. Evah.
rudepundit.blogspot.com
11The LA Times is predicting 352 electoral votes for Hillary.
I’m not a math whiz, but I think that’s more than 170.
12JAKV: rude and vulgar and readable and poetic.
Vote on!
13Dow Jumped 150 points on good news about HRC from FBI.
14JAKV- your link doesn’t work.
15Listening to NPR this morning, there was a segment which posed the question about the impact of Latino voters. I believe it was Tucker Carlson who said, if Texas ever goes Blue due to Latino voters, we can stop holding Presidential elections. There will be no way for Republicans to ever win the electoral college.
16Primo, I hope you are correct! JAKViginia, Great column!
17epo: I link like crap. Just type it in or Google. Not hard to find. Sorry.
18Danggit, I meant “more than 270.” Told you I wasn’t any good at math.
AKLynne, time to open that wine. I’ll be over in a few.
19epo, copy the link and paste it into your browser.
Thanks, JAKvirginia– I’ve bookmarked her blog; she says good things. She’s NSFW, which is OK because this whole campaign and any rational response to it are NSFW. (Not Suitable For Work or for Mama) I’ve just about sworn the paint off the wall.
20JAK, I read both parts 1 and 2. Thanks so much for the link. She swears about as much as I do and she’s smart.
I’ve been feeling better all day. Comey and other saboteurs are out of time to destroy what’s good and decent. Hillary will win, we’ll get the Senate, then we need to get all those judgeships filled ASAP. Next for 2018? A Democratic House! Same for 2020 so we can undo all that corrupt snacilbupeR gerrymandering and make the House represent the the people again.
21Rhea: I think she’s a he. If not, she is one wild woman!
22Oops! Didn’t see Part 2. That person is definitely a she. Rude is a he. And they are both right on target.
23Neither of Minnesota’s Senators, both Democrats, are up for election.
We have 8 Congress members, 5 of whom are Democrats. One snacilbupeR seat will become Democratic while another is too close to call. The 3rd will stay snacilbupeR. A snacilbupeR is running hard to unseat a Democrat and it’s very close, but I think the Democrat will hold it.
24I am beginning to feel like Lili Von Stuppe (Madeline Kahn)
in her rendition of “I’m Tired”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uai7M4RpoLU
I am tired of the anxiety, dread, the verbal bullying,
25and general lack of civility.
JAKvirginia: Thanks for that. Debbo and Rhea: If you haven’t already, check out the next post with sh*t in the title. “That’s what nukes are for”. I like the way this lady thinks.
26Primo: I love you to death; but, you have proposed the most optimistic result imaginable.
Doesn’t matter. As long as HRC hits 270, it’s all good.
27When Texas turns blue, WHEN dammit. Tucker Carlson is a jackass!
28I really hope that folks keep voting to put the boot on his neck and drive EV to over 350 for Hillary. My fear is it will be called early and folks in the western states will stay home. We got down ballot and lots of propositions here in CA.
29m: Oregon and Washington both vote by mail (or drop off at designated places in OR). Oregon ballots must be received by 8 pm (postmarked doesn’t count so last day to mail ballots was days ago). I’m not sure about Washington but last I knew they just need to be postmarked by election day.
Anyway, I think most people in OR and WA will have already gotten their ballots in. And I can’t imagine there will be a problem with CA going for HRC.
30Primo, your statement: “I’ve never felt so disgusted and disappointed by 40% of America’s population than I have by the ones who have chosen Donald Trump as their champion.”
says it all for me. And makes me so sad for our country. And know that we have so much work to do to come together, to educate folks. ::sigh::
31Hannah and Primo, disgusted, but not surprised here. 8 years of Dubya beat the “surprise factor” out of my system. The snacilbupeR did a great job of doing the “Dubya Who? Shuffle.” On day one of his presidency President Obama inherited all of Dubya’s debt and compound interest on all of his mistakes.
Voting Hilz vs the Dumpster fire was a no brainer for me. But after what Mitch and the boys did to Obama, those down ballot races will be keeping me up tonight.
Thank you, Obama. No, seriously, thank you, Obama. And, Mrs Obama as well as everyone who campaigned with gusto to lift Hilz to victory.
32This latest from the High Priestess of the Ghouls, Ann Coulter: if only people who have four grandparents born in the US could vote, Trump would win all states.
Pretty stupid there, Ann, if that were true, then Donald J. Drumpf would not be running.
33I bow to your expertise, Primo, and hope with all my heart that you are correct on all counts.
34I just found out that there hasn’t been a Dem majority on the Supreme Court in 45 years. Time for a huge change.