Last night, CNN stupidly handed TFG 70 minutes on the national stage to spew his bullshit and play his greatest hits of lies, big lies, gigantic lies, and intergalactic lies.  His “town hall” quickly became a TFG rally complete with mocking of the moderator and continued defamation of every perceived enemy from Biden to E. Jean Carroll.  What idiot at CNN thought it would be a good idea to fill a room with TFG supporters and unleash them on national television?  TFG began his stream of lies within one minute of taking the stage, and it continued for over an hour, completely running over moderator Kaitlan Collins, who’s effort to fact check TFG was an exercise in futility.

If there was any good that came from last night’s shameful display, it’s that TFG did a superb  job of burying himself in confessions of crimes and continued defamation of his enemies, especially E. Jean Carroll, to whom he already owes $5 million.  He openly celebrated the January 6th insurrection, calling it a “beautiful day”, and repeated his promise to pardon insurrectionists.  He admitted to taking classified documents and hiding them at Mar a Lago.  You can bet that Jack Smith and other federal and state prosecutors were listening very carefully and taking copious notes.  I have to admit one thing about TFG – he clearly understands his plight and has pushed all of his chips to the center of the table.  He knows that if he’s not successful at winning the presidency and taking down the US government, he’s facing the rest of his life either in jail or fighting desperately to stay out.  Without a win, his fate is sealed.

We may as well brace for almost two years of this rolling shitshow as it’s clear that TFG controls the former Republican party and no one will come close to taking him down in the primaries.  EVERY voter needs to understand the stakes here; you can bet that TFG does.

As the January 6th Committee focuses all its attention on TFG, the evidence presented makes it indisputable that not only is he a Giant ShitBag, he’s a criminal guilty of seditious conspiracy and other crimes.  Life for TFG is going to radically change in coming months with dozens of lawsuits and even criminal charges in his future.  Recent polls are showing his death grip on the GOP is weakening, and many Republican voters are beginning to look elsewhere for 2024.

While I welcome Trump finally facing the music, taking him out politically presents a conundrum – besides Biden, the Dems have no candidate groomed or positioned to run for president in 2024.  With Trump out of the way, the next choice for the GOP is Ron DeSantis who I would describe as TFG, only smart.  DeSantis understands what issues drive his base to the polls and he is relentless.  He’s been trying to get to the right of every other possible candidate in the last 2 years especially Abbott in their race to the Crazy Train 2024.  After TFG, DeSantis is polling stronger by multiples than everyone else on the train.  For the Dems, that’s not good.

I love me some Joe Biden, but he’s going to be 82 in 2024.  That’s simply too old, especially up against a much younger loudmouthed opponent like DeSantis.  That match up simply won’t turn out well.  The big problem for the Dems is that there is no other obvious choice; Kamala polls around 37% approval, and currently polls about even with DeSantis and her name recognition is much higher than his, at least for now.  That’s not great.  Behind her are, Schiff? Newsom? Warren? Sanders? (God, please no). Booker? Roy Cooper? (gov of NC). Klobuchar? AOC? Buttigieg? Sherrod Brown?  Of all these possibilities, Brown seems the strongest choice as he’s done well for years in Ohio which is more conservative than it is liberal.  Buttigieg is a possible, especially now that he’s a cabinet secretary, but I’m not convinced he’ll have a enough broad appeal, especially with low information voters.  The rest are either not ready (AOC) or unelectable, like Warren and Sanders.

In the end, the Dems face a tough choice.  I would vote for any Dem over DeSantis, but I’m not your typical voter, and this is the problem for 2024.  Typical voters don’t pay close attention until it’s almost too late, and tend to follow the herd.  That’s how TFG eked out a win in 2016; DeSantis has the advantage for 2024 of a strong base and coming from probably THE key battleground state giving him a huge leg up on everyone else.

Such is the problem with the Dems; unlike the GOP, the Dems do almost no grass roots growing, and that makes the party weaker.  One illustration of the difference between the two parties is that of the pyramid.  Repubs build a broad base, running for school boards, precinct chairs, and town councils. On this base is built a large population of up and coming politicians, and those who rise to the top become the leading candidates with president on the top of the pyramid.  The Dems do the opposite; there’s very little broad grass roots work so presidential candidates are on their own to get enough attention to get nominated (Obama was the textbook example of that).  Once the candidate is selected, the entire party then piles onto that candidate forming an upside down pyramid that is 100% dependent on the candidate; if he/she fails, the entire party collapses and then has to rebuild.  Relentless grass roots development is how the GOP has come to dominate in most states, and the Dems haven’t figured it out yet.

That brings us to 2024.  The January 6th Committee stands a really good chance of taking out TFG either by actual criminal charges from the DOJ or at least damaging him enough to kill his 2024 chances.  That brings DeSantis, who’s a much stronger candidate.  The Dems don’t have an answer for that.  It ain’t pretty, and I’m not hopeful.

For time and immemorial, the standard playbook for dealing with a disgraced former leader has been the same. You let them ride off into the sunset and everyone forgets about him or her. This even includes the criminals. I have always been taught and always believed that criminalizing political behavior would lead to bad ends. The last guy has taught those of us in that camp that we shouldn’t politicize criminal behavior.

Polling data indicate that he’s gaining for 2024. No, he would not win an election if it were held today, but it’s certainly close enough to make people nervous. What seems more outrageous historically is that he is in front of the entire GOP pool. What’s more, when someone loses by eight million votes the normal course is for all of the next candidates to fall over themselves convincing us that they aren’t that guy. Except, every blasted one of them is doing the exact opposite.

I’d say things will change once the indictments start rolling in, but I think it will take him actually wearing an orange jumpsuit for there to be a dent. Even then, it would just be a dent. I don’t know how many times I can say the word “normally” before we all realize that normal will just be one of those quaint words we don’t use anymore. They will convince themselves that it’s all a sham like my mother in law who convinced herself that Joe Biden was resigning. This one is going to take a few election cycles to clear.