And so we come down to the last day of the 2016 election, an election which defied all experts’ predictions by lasting 1000 years, it feels like. I’ve never felt so disgusted and disappointed by 40% of America’s population than I have by the ones who have chosen Donald Trump as their champion.

As we discussed back in May, I never felt that the race would get out of control to the point where Trump could actually win. The dark midnight of my soul, which comes at least once a cycle, came when the polls dipped when Hillary took ill. Nothing else that has occurred met the definition of a potential game-changer. For me, because of Trump’s misogyny, it was always a question, not of IF she would win, but by HOW MUCH she would win. Let’s take a look at where things stand.

States some still consider “in play”

Without throwing any swing states into play, Clinton holds a 195 to 82 Electoral Vote (EV) lead over Trump right now.

“Swing” states not really in play:

For Hillary, the following states are in the bag, no matter what the polls and other folks are saying: WI, MI, PA, VA, CO, NM. This puts EV at 268 Hillary, 82 Trump

Swing states lost by Trump in the first 5 minutes of his campaign:

Due to early voting by Latinos and African Americans, Hillary has already booked enough votes to win FL, NC and NV if her GOTV continues to excel: Hillary EV 318, Trump 82. If Trump won everything after this, it would be 318-220. Losing by 98 EV is Trump’s best-case scenario, but it would make for a long night waiting for California.

Trump, prepare to meet thy Doom.

Most likely swing states to also go Hillary:

If she’s having a good night, and I think she will, AZ and GA will go for Hillary, also due to the early voting, minorities and the ground game. There’s also a Nebraska elector (they and ME do not have winner take all) that I think she will get if she’s performing at this level.

Swing states that are hard to predict:

Ohio, despite my living here, remains to some degree a mystery  because of the high likelihood of a Portman victory requiring some degree of ticket-splitting to bring Hillary home. It’s possible; it’s also possible that under-performing Trump turnout could make this a big blue bump on the tote board. With the tightness of the polls, I give this to Hillary based on ground game. In New Hampshire, the polls have gone haywire. But I feel a Hillary/Hassan daily double coming out of there. There’s also a Maine elector that has been solidly Trump up to this point.

Swing states that Trump has a decent chance to hold on to:

Iowa, Indiana, Missouri and South Carolina have all shown signs of softening at various times. Again, with the paucity and unreliability of polls in this area, it’s hard to quantify by how much. If anything, the Comey distraction prevented expansion into this section of the board.  But if Hillary starts racking up a 7-point and higher national win, these are the states that will start to fall for her. Texas, too. Maybe even Alaska could flip, while Utah could very easily go to Trump, McMullin or Clinton.

My predictions:

First, I believe the poll averages have consistently been low by 1-3% and the organizational disparity is good for another 1-3% for Hillary. Also, once in the voting booth, a lot of Americans are going to have a small little come-to-Jesus moment and decide that a vote for anyone BUT Hillary is a dangerous flirt with the devil and disaster.

Based on this, I think that her margin of victory will be 7%-10% (or more). The most likely range of Electoral votes will be 340-360, but if we get up to that 10%, we will be looking at the 400 EV blowout that has been in play all summer. If the Clinton people hammer the turnout, and the Trump people stay home in enervated dejection, it could go as high as 450.

I think that the Senate will turn blue, and there is even a chance that the House is still in play. Everyone else thinks not, but if this becomes a 10-point landslide, or more, then everything is fair game.

I will get SO drunk!