Four Corners is a minority area in Fort Bend County.  Voting has been very heavy there.  Today, the local Republican Party sent their Welcoming Committee to greet voters.

Can you even imagine how small his winkie is?

Look, I’m not saying that the Republicans were unhappy with the way ballots by mail were going this year, but they set the damn building on fire.

Everyone is okay.

I don’t know if you’d heard, but women were not originally allowed to vote for President under the Original Intent of the Framers, who were a bunch of rich white guys.  It took another 144 years before the 19th Amendment changed all that in 1920.

Susan B Anthony, the quintessential suffragette, did not live to see that day, dying in 1906.  But thankful women (and men!) have been visiting her grave ever since.  In recent years,  they have taken to leaving their “I voted” stickers there.

How cool is this!

But today. Oh, Today!  With the election of the first Woman President in the History of the United States at last a real probability, this quaint custom has been turbo-charged.

Today. there’s a damn LINE – dozens of people! – standing in a line to tell Susan we made it.

Standing in line, not to vote for Hillary…

…but to tell a dead woman you voted for Hillary.

How cool is that!

Before we get on to what to watch for tonight, there’s an interesting little experiment going on over at Slate with a group called VoteCastr, who are updating estimated status of the races INTRADAY!

Starting with the lists of people who cast votes early, VoteCastr is applying the microtargeting techniques used in modern political campaigns (well, not so much with der Drumpf, danke Gott) to estimate what the current state of the race is. Estimating the race in a state by party affiliation alone is kind of like estimating ethnicity based on hair and skin color – it works a lot in the middle of the bell curve, but not so much close to the edges.

We are very close to the edge of the bell curve, here, because of Trump’s historically bad campaign. As we saw, this makes betting on party affiliation as dispositive a fool’s errand. Furthermore, we cannot make any estimates based on non-affiliated voters. VoteCastr tries to predict the choice of any individual person who has voted.

Take VoteCastr with a very bigly grain of salt.  I don’t know how well it’s going to work, but I’m going to be refreshing it all day. If accurate, it could change election day reporting. Maybe not for the better.

As for tonight, pay attention as polls close to what the characterizations are. Early calls in early voting states are significant of trends. “Too early to call” but characterized Clinton are good. “Too early to call” where we expect success are worrying, especially if they flip to “too close to call.” A lot of “too close to call” means a long night.

There are 3 states that will tell you early on how the night is going to go:

Florida: They had 50% early turnout in Florida, with only another 20-30% expected today. At 7 PM most of Florida’s polls will close and those early numbers will be posted. If Hillary is ahead bigly – as we suspect she may be – then it’s all over but the shouting. If Rubio is down bigly, it’s going to be a Huuuge Night for Dems. But Florida won’t be called until the panhandle closes.

North Carolina: NC could be called early, and if it is it will be for Clinton. A long-lasting “too close to call” here means that Comey’s letter had as deep an effect as could be feared, short of flipping the election. NC had a drop off in black early voting, which could be deemed a lack of enthusiasm but is probably more related to the voter suppression on early voting. How the AfAm vote turns out today everywhere is KEY up and down the ticket and NC would be a pre-cursor to Rust Belt races. An early Clinton call would be Huuuuge.

New Hampshire: After the craziness of the polls this past week, THIS is the place where we see what it all means. A quick Hillary-Maggie win there and it’s Katy-bar-the-Huuuge-door. A Trump win and it’s a looong night and maybe a loooonger 4 years with a GOP Congress. To me, all-white NH is the key indicator as to the turn-out power of the campaigns, the actual enthusiasm of the Trump voter, the power of the women’s vote and the coat tails of both campaigns among whites across the US.

Other states to watch to gauge trends:

Eastern Time Zone: MI, PA, GA for strength of minority GOTV. OH for ticket splitting.

Central Time Zone: When the polls close and early characterizations are made from MN to TX, we will know how Huuge a win Hillary will have. Watch Indiana and Iowa, states where Trump AND the GOP are anticipated to do well but may instead show the strength of the Democratic ticket. Senate wins in these states are not expected, but still possible. How the Heartland votes tonight will determine the course of the US, maybe for decades.

Mountain Time Zone: Should be over by the time we reach 10 PM, Real Standard Time, but if not, Arizona is the place to watch. Utah will really be fun, too, because thanks to the third party, the fourth party and the McMullin Party of One, this may be more of a Donner Party than a Donnie Party for Republicans.

Points West: No trends to watch here, just the final call if it’s been a slow night for Hillary to this point. Blue Pacific, Blue Hawaii and I may go to bed before we find out what Alaska does, but it will be interestingly anti-climactic, I’m sure.

Bottom line for tonight:

Don’t panic!  It’s not a question of if she wins, it’s a question of if she wins HUUUUGE!  Try to stay relaxed, rested and reasonably sober, and don’t forget to stretch before going into your victory dance.

It’s time to make our predictions for the outcomes for tonight.

The Senate races have flown below the radar, but there are some very interesting ones that can flip that body back blue, a key step on re-establishing the Democratic hegemony in government. The Senate will allow the President to place her nominees into the government, especially in the Judiciary, especially in the Supreme Court.

That’s the ballgame, folks. Unless the judiciary is complete and competent, we have no chance of meaningful electoral reform.

Our key Senate races mirror, for the most part, our key battleground states. The competitive races right now are: AZ, FL, IN, MO, NC, NH, NV, PA and WI – all currently held by the GOP except for Nevada. States that were swinging but no longer appear competitive are a Republican hold in Ohio and a Democratic pick-up in Illinois. This makes the Senate 46 Blue to 45 Red with 9 left to allocate.

Thanks to FBI Director Comey’s 11^th hour nothingburger, Clinton’s momentum of two weeks ago, which could have made a House-flipping landslide more likely, has been blunted. I think there will be gains for Democrats, but the dream of a completely Blue Congress is slipping away.

So your challenge for our game today is this:

• Pick the final Electoral Vote totals for Clinton and Trump. Should total 538.
• Pick the final tally in the Senate (include the 2 independents with the Dems) Should total 100.
• Pick the final tally in the House. Should total 435

Like so:

• President: Clinton 368 Trump 170
• Senate: Dems 52 GOP 48
• House: Dems 208 GOP 227

Unexpectedly, the ballot board has run far behind our usual speed because the guy trying to disqualify every voter over the age of 65 because their signatures don’t match exactly has slowed down even more.  You could use this guy to time epochs.

So, what was supposed to be 99% completed by Friday has become a mad dash for the finish line at 7:00 tonight.  We worked late last night and I have to be back today and we will probably work all day.  I miss you guys but am thrilled that DaChipster has kept you entertained.

I’m going to leave this thread open for chit-chat today.  See ya tonight!