Every year, the Eurasia Group, a political risk management and consulting group, issues its report on the top ten global risks of international crisis.  This year’s report is profoundly disturbing, especially the largest risk it identifies.  Who is it? Is it Iran? Saudi Arabia? Russia?  Nope.  It’s the US and its broken political system.  Before we talk about this, let’s look at all ten:

1. Delegitimizing of our elections in US.
2. The decoupling of US and China technology cooperation.
3. US/China relations.
4. Multi-National Corporations in conflict with emerging nation/states.
5. Upheaval in India as social policies are causing economic downturns
6. Geopolitical influence of Europe as pushes back against the US and China.
7. Politics vs economics in climate change.
8. US policies toward Shia led nations.
9. Discontent in Latin America.
10. Turkey – pretty much everything.

These risks are all disturbing and obvious to geopolitical observers, but the first risk is scary in that it recognizes the shambles our own political system is in.  It talks about how Trump is greatly worsening the situation through his immoral and illegal behavior, but expresses great concern that he has already delegitimized the 2020 election by claiming that if he loses it’s because the election was “rigged”.  If he wins, the majority of Americans will believe it was rigged the other way (with the help of the Republicans and the Russians) and many won’t accept the result.  It is a lose-lose situation, and with Republicans enabling and protecting Trump, the crisis is unavoidable, especially since they’ll acquit him in the Senate trial emboldening him more if that’s even possible.  I mean, after all, he’s now announced that the only way he’s going to communicate with Congress is through Twitter.  Jesus.

None of this will end well, even in the remote chance that by some miracle he’s removed from office.

So, let’s recap the week:

1. Trump, against all advice, unilaterally had the second most powerful person in the Iranian government killed by drone in Baghdad.  Seven others were killed along with him.
2. Trump informed Lindsey Graham before the attack, but apparently no one else.  After the attack he spoke only to Republicans and only now is congressional leadership being briefed.
3. Evidence to justify the killings has been described by congressional sources has been described as “razor thin”.
4. Trump has continued to threaten Iran with acts of massive destruction if they retaliate (via Twitter).
5. The Iraqi Parliament has voted to expel all US troops from the country.  The vote was taken at the request of Iraqi prime minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi.  He’s sure to sign it.
6. Today, Iran announced that it is now withdrawing from the nuclear treaty of 2015 and will begin enriching uranium immediately.
7. Pompeo was on all the news programs this morning freely lying and defending the indefensible.
8. Pence lied on Twitter yesterday that Soleimani was involved in 9/11, trying to give cover to Trump.
9. Trump played golf today.

Our government is run by an incompetent, totally corrupt moron who’s being enabled by lying radicals.  It will take decades to recover from this cancer on our republic.

Iraqi parliament has voted to order US troops out of Iraq.  Trump has single handedly, and stupidly escalated violence in the Middle East.  More later.

Fox News talking heads are now trumpeting the accuracy of US intelligence that Trump claims to have used to justify the killing of the second most powerful member of the Iranian government, and all reference to the “Deep State” has ceased.  The reversal can cause serious whiplash if you’re not careful.  Even Sean Hannity got into the act, saying, “But I will say the big headline is, this is a huge victory for American intelligence, a huge victory for our military, a huge victory for the State Department, and a huge victory and total leadership by the president.”  Hannity has been railing about US intelligence for 3 years calling it the anti-Trump “Deep State”.

NY Times reporter Rukmini Callimachi tweeted earlier today that her sources call the evidence of imminent attacks was “razor thin” and leaves many questions.  Now that Congress is being finally briefed, the truth will come out, and I’ll lay odds that Trump and his enablers are lying about this, too.

Wag the Dog.

Last Spring, Senator Tom Udall introduced an amendment to the defense appropriation bill that would have prevented Trump from taking any military action against Iran or its leaders without congressional approval.  McConnell poo-pood it and all but 4 Repubs voted against it.  McConnell even said that Trump had assured him he had no intention of taking action against Iran.

How wrong he was, and now Trump is taking us UNILATERALLY into a war with no congressional oversight.  Huge mistake.

In a pre-dawn raid, the US just conducted a missile strike at the airport in Baghdad that killed General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds force and the head of the Iraqi militia, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.  Internatonal crude prices are up sharply in the last hour on rumors of war with Iran.

Strap in.  Trump’s trying to start a war with Iran to distract from his problems at home.