Debate Prep
The Democratic Party race to the 2020 nomination to face Orange Julius Cheeser will kick off with their first debate at the Adrienne Arsht Center in Miami, on the evenings of June 26-27. Yes, it’s a two-day extravaganza of wannabes, has-beens, never-wases, also-rans and contenders hosted by NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo, all children of NBCUniversal, of the House of Comcast.
The First of His Name
Speaking of ’20, that’s the number of candidates who will be invited to the debate, 10 for each of the nights. Assuming that no one else decides to declare for the nomination in the next three weeks, that means that there will be 4 candidates of the current two dozen who will spend the two nights tweeting butt-hurt from the sidelines. That is not as bad as it seems, because the top guns in the middle of the actual furball are only going to get about 10 minutes each on average to stand out from the madding crowd.
Some broke, some addled, four out
Who gets an invitation depends on polling and an odd measurement of “grass roots” support. For polling, a candidate must poll more than 1% three times in “qualified” polls, which encompass an array of media and polling giants, including FOX News but NOT RRRRRasmussen! The polls can either be national surveys or from any of the early states: IA, NH, SC, NV.
So far, 20 candidates have reached this threshold. This is the first decider.
If more than 20 candidate qualify via polling, grass roots fundraising is the next determinant. This is measured by unique donors to a campaign: a minimum of 65,000 comprising at least 200 donors from 20 different states. For this reason, you may see an onslaught of requests for micro-donations to micro-candidacies over the next week, as only 13 campaigns have reached the 65k mark.
Lookin’ at you, Mike Gravel!
Further tie-breakers are almost as complicated to calculate as the NFL Wild Card spot, but still rely on these two basic measures in varying combinations. The final date to have reached qualifying status in either measure is next Thursday, June 13. Candidates will be assigned to a night randomly, thus avoiding any “kiddie table” talk; but, sadly, the “clown car” comparison will remain apt.
Selfie: all the Dems who think they can win
What all this all but guarantees is that anyone in the game right now, with even the faintest of chances, will have an opportunity to run to every medium they can reach crying “I was robbed!” and that practically nothing will be resolved prior to Detroit, on July 30-31, when they get to do it all over again.
I knew Han Solo.
Han Solo was a friend of mine.
You sir, are no Han Solo.
1Thanks, El Jefe. And a grateful thank you to MS JJ for sponsoring this opportunity to comment. Now I’ll leave words of advice to ALL contenders and the DNC from two of the leading contenders:
Senator Bernie Sanders: “In my view, we will not defeat Donald Trump unless we bring excitement and energy into the campaign, and unless we give millions of working people and young people a reason to vote and a reason to believe that politics is relevant to their lives.” And: “We have got to make it clear that when the future of the planet is at stake there is no middle ground.”
Senator Elizabeth Warren: “Big problems call for big solutions,” she said. “And some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks and nudges. If they dream, they dream small. Some say if we all just calm down, the Republicans will come to their senses.” Warren added: “Here’s the thing. When a candidate tells you about all the things that aren’t possible, about how political calculations come first . . . they’re telling you something very important — they are telling you that they will not fight for you.”
And, please, contenders, don’t be butthurt. We could use your talents in the Senate. Hints to Beto and Pete.
Worth repeating from Senators Warren as advice to voters: “Here’s the thing. When a candidate tells you about all the things that aren’t possible, about how political calculations come first . . . they’re telling you something very important — they are telling you that they will not fight for you.”
Senator Kamala Harris with advice on running against IQ4.5 with ad spots: “It came out of his mouth.”
2Polite Kool, check the byline, old friend!
3Primo Encarnacion my sincere apologies, old friend! Great to see you’re back contributing to the WMDBS. Your wisdom and political commentary will be much appreciated as the 2020 election approaches.
Was it something they said? Or, why I think John Hickenlooper, Seth Moulton and Tim Ryan should go the way of Howie Schultz, out now. Your thoughts?
4🙂 Great question! I’ll be reviewing the “wannabes, has-beens, never-wases, also-rans and contenders” over a couple of future columns. Gathering research, content and humorous captions now.
5Next time, let’s use the college basketball playoff model. Pick the top 32, have 1 on 1 debates, winner to go on to the next round
6So, Primo, Three cherries on the slots (POLLS) to win extra face time with the voters. Seems kind of early with some of these polls showing outlandish results which possibly are tinted by vested interests: (cough-kochs) (corporate-cough-choke-gag) (foreign puke-puke-heave) elements? And 10 min for 10 candidates? This sounds like America’s funniest gaffes, bloopers and faux pas.
7It’s not a great solution to a huge field of candidates–I don’t really think there is one—but it’s better than last election’s Republican “kid’s table” debates. It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out.
8I suggested a round robin series of debates of 3 or 4 people ( even 4 is getting a bit large) continuely streamed online ( not on facebook).
9Just keep going around until it is down to just Warren (Pres) and Harris (VP) then nominate them as the ticket.
Not that I have any favorites.
Can’t wait for my next “patience, grasshopper” from Primo. How is this for a dream: unlike the Republicons in their lead up to Dotard fiasco, Democratic candidates voluntarily self eliminate in a 3 balloon contest. Each candidate is given 3 balloons. After filling all 3 with a really stupid/disqualifying/Republicon-lite comment they withdraw.
Or, we could do what K@9 suggests. How great would that be? Warren to represent the east, Harris for the west, with Senate spots and cabinet posts for all the rest who haven’t already JWH’d out of running.
10One reason I like Warren is that with her history as a teacher she explains ideas and systems in such a way as to educate the body politic and after the demented one a reeducation will be needed after all the ignorance spewed forth.
Example was her off the cuff popping of the bogus “you didn’t build that” kerfuffle that the thugs pushed way back when
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AMoBU7lFUA
Sorry ignore/ don’t waste time reading ignorant comments from wing nuts listen to what she has to say.
11I can’t help thinking of the Kentucky Derby. Everybody wants to run a horse in the Derby, qualified or not, so they have to win a certain amount to qualify, but there’s still an extra starting gate added on to accommodate twenty horses, making it a blasted cavalry charge instead of a horse race, with the rabbits out front setting a pace they can’t keep up and the good horses having to weave through the pack, and an increased chance of somebody tripping and breaking a leg and maybe causing a catastrophic pileup…. By the time they get to the Preakness and the Belmont, the field has been whittled down to a sensible number.
12Primo, hope to see you more often. J.J. and El Jefe are gonna need all the help they can get on the postin’ side running up to probably the most important election in our lifetimes. We’ll try to hold up our end of the commentin’ side.
13Rhea:
I like the Derby analogy. But I also think the field of runners can help shape the message like never before in a liberal primary run.
I see your point about probable loosers tripping up possible winners.
My hope is that the winner takes advantage of all the different ideas, and more importantly whatever voters the future cabinet members bring to the horserace. Because if we have “Bros” that sit out the vote or write in names of people not on the ballot this time, we are totally screwed.
Primo Encarnacion:
14I also have missed your input in recent months. Look forward to reading more of your observations.
Every D should make a point at every speech how they appreciate and reimburse the associated costs to municapalities and contrast that to demented donnie’s failure to pay ElPso the $470K his campaign owes.
15Go back to 2016 and see if he paid off every community that he bused and how long it took.
Be funny if communities demanded cash up front, because of his record as a deadbeat, before they would issue permits for rally’s etc.