As the January 6th Committee focuses all its attention on TFG, the evidence presented makes it indisputable that not only is he a Giant ShitBag, he’s a criminal guilty of seditious conspiracy and other crimes. Life for TFG is going to radically change in coming months with dozens of lawsuits and even criminal charges in his future. Recent polls are showing his death grip on the GOP is weakening, and many Republican voters are beginning to look elsewhere for 2024.
While I welcome Trump finally facing the music, taking him out politically presents a conundrum – besides Biden, the Dems have no candidate groomed or positioned to run for president in 2024. With Trump out of the way, the next choice for the GOP is Ron DeSantis who I would describe as TFG, only smart. DeSantis understands what issues drive his base to the polls and he is relentless. He’s been trying to get to the right of every other possible candidate in the last 2 years especially Abbott in their race to the Crazy Train 2024. After TFG, DeSantis is polling stronger by multiples than everyone else on the train. For the Dems, that’s not good.
I love me some Joe Biden, but he’s going to be 82 in 2024. That’s simply too old, especially up against a much younger loudmouthed opponent like DeSantis. That match up simply won’t turn out well. The big problem for the Dems is that there is no other obvious choice; Kamala polls around 37% approval, and currently polls about even with DeSantis and her name recognition is much higher than his, at least for now. That’s not great. Behind her are, Schiff? Newsom? Warren? Sanders? (God, please no). Booker? Roy Cooper? (gov of NC). Klobuchar? AOC? Buttigieg? Sherrod Brown? Of all these possibilities, Brown seems the strongest choice as he’s done well for years in Ohio which is more conservative than it is liberal. Buttigieg is a possible, especially now that he’s a cabinet secretary, but I’m not convinced he’ll have a enough broad appeal, especially with low information voters. The rest are either not ready (AOC) or unelectable, like Warren and Sanders.
In the end, the Dems face a tough choice. I would vote for any Dem over DeSantis, but I’m not your typical voter, and this is the problem for 2024. Typical voters don’t pay close attention until it’s almost too late, and tend to follow the herd. That’s how TFG eked out a win in 2016; DeSantis has the advantage for 2024 of a strong base and coming from probably THE key battleground state giving him a huge leg up on everyone else.
Such is the problem with the Dems; unlike the GOP, the Dems do almost no grass roots growing, and that makes the party weaker. One illustration of the difference between the two parties is that of the pyramid. Repubs build a broad base, running for school boards, precinct chairs, and town councils. On this base is built a large population of up and coming politicians, and those who rise to the top become the leading candidates with president on the top of the pyramid. The Dems do the opposite; there’s very little broad grass roots work so presidential candidates are on their own to get enough attention to get nominated (Obama was the textbook example of that). Once the candidate is selected, the entire party then piles onto that candidate forming an upside down pyramid that is 100% dependent on the candidate; if he/she fails, the entire party collapses and then has to rebuild. Relentless grass roots development is how the GOP has come to dominate in most states, and the Dems haven’t figured it out yet.
That brings us to 2024. The January 6th Committee stands a really good chance of taking out TFG either by actual criminal charges from the DOJ or at least damaging him enough to kill his 2024 chances. That brings DeSantis, who’s a much stronger candidate. The Dems don’t have an answer for that. It ain’t pretty, and I’m not hopeful.
