Treating Election Anxiety Disease
This was written by a friend of mine, George Dillingham, the county chair of Washington County, Texas. It helped me a lot yesterday so I decided to share it with you.
I have received calls from many Democrats who are suffering from what I call election anxiety disease. This disease has no biological basis but has infected many good Democrats as a result of the memory of the disappointment and shock felt on election night in 2016. If Democrats gather together with or without masks and begin to obsess about the 2020 election, election anxiety becomes highly infectious.
I suggest that one remedy for calming frayed nerves and anxiety is to refrain from comparing the election in 2016 to 2020. Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, is much different from Hillary Clinton. He is a respected white male who represents an acceptable alternative to swing voters and disaffected Republicans who don’t want to vote for Donald Trump. While the polls were favorable to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden has much larger leads than Clinton and in many states is above the margin of error. Finally, it appears that there will be a record turnout in battleground states which has historically benefited Democrats.
My view and that of many knowledgeable political pundits is that the “Blue Wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be resurrected for Biden/Harris. But I caution that there may be some anxious moments for Democrats on election night as all three states take some time to count absentee ballots.
The odds of Trump’s re-election are very long when you look at the election map. He can’t afford to lose any two of the states he narrowly won in 2016 and he must win Florida and Texas with both of these rated very close contests. The election math is very much against him.
In addition to general election anxiety, I have been questioned by Democrats about the reality of actually turning Texas Blue. My opinion is that the huge increase in voter turnout in Texas moves a win by Biden in Texas from unlikely to possible. We have known that for a long time that low turnout in Texas has greatly favored Republicans. With the dramatic increase in voter participation, we could also see Democrats take control of the Texas House of Representatives and elect several new Democrats to congress like our own, Mike Siegel. Finally, the trend is favorable to turning Texas Blue. In 2012 Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points. In 2016 Trump won Texas by 9 points. In 2018 Ted Cruz won Texas by 3 points. The trend here is definitely our friend.
I hope that some of this information is helpful in dealing with you election anxiety. As for myself, I already have a bottle of Champaign on ice, but I realize that I might not pop the cork until November 4th or 5th.