Early yesterday morning, two Aramco crude facilities were attacked. Shortly after, satellite photos showed plumes of smoke coming from multiple locations at a scale that could be observed from space. The Saudis announced that HALF of their production had been taken off line. When international trading started a few hours ago, crude prices jumped $6.00 per barrel, increasing to over $60.
Just a little while ago, Trump tweeted: “Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!”
Yemeni Houthis claimed responsibility for the attacks. Mike Pompeo accused Iran for the attacks. I call bullshit. This has all the markings of Wag the Dog as a pretense to start a war with Iran. Here’s why I say this:
- The Houthis have been using quadcopters and other small commercial drones bought off of Amazon for their attacks on Saudi Arabia. These drones have little capacity to carry munitions that would cause significant damage.
- Iran has apparently been supplying parts and training to build cheap drones, yet they are small with little capacity to carry significant explosives.
- The attack early on Saturday morning caused enough damage to shut in FIVE MILLION BARRELS PER DAY of Saudi production. This kind of damage was not caused by homemade drones or quadcopters from Amazon.
The Saudi facilities that were allegedly attacked are massive, with modern controls and redundant systems. To claim that an attack with homemade drones was significant enough to shut down 5 million barrels per day of production is laughable. This incident is one of three things:
- An actual attack from Iran, which would be suicide by said country, and an accusation I reject.
- An attack by some other power trying to instigate a war (the US) which is certainly a possibility.
- The entire story is bullshit. Trump and Mohammad bin Salman are in cahoots to start a war with Iran and jack up crude prices.
I’ll take Door Number 3, Monty. This “attack” stinks like yesterday’s crawfish boil, and Trump tweeting that he’s awaiting instructions from Saudi Arabia is the tell. Let’s be clear here: The storyline is that a fleet of small homemade drones from Yemen, built by Iran, was so effective that it knocked out 50% of Saudi Arabia’s production. Bullshit. Alternatively, Iran was so stupid as to attack Saudi directly with powerful drones (or warplanes) guaranteeing a lethal response from the US and its Middle East allies. Bullshit.
I believe that this is nothing more than pretense to justify attacking Iran. Worse, Trump is subjugating the US to Saudi dominance, publicly announcing that he is awaiting instructions from that murdering SOB MBS for how our country should respond.
Christ on a Crutch. 2020 or impeachment can’t come too soon.