As an addendum to all of the brouhaha surrounding the Trump “Campaign,” commentators and pundits have been noting that yesterday was 13 weeks to Election Day or, put another way, 90 days from today.
Any dates thrown about have been in the context of either 1) the shrinking window of time that Trump has to right the ship or 2) the oodles and oodles of time left before Trump has to right the ship. Except for the most rabid Trumpistas, including the Orange-a-Tan himself, almost everyone else agrees that the ship does indeed need righting.
Captain Trump: I Got This!
Through every late-night Tweet, in every amped up rally, with every news cycle spent explaining the dumb stuff he said in the last news cycle, Donald J Trump not only fritters away time, he saps political will from the very people he needs to bring him across the finish line, where they exist, if they exist. It has been well-documented that he has eschewed the standard model for bringing in votes, which always includes a robust voter-outreach program buttressed by a strong campaign presence on the ground in key battleground states.
Rather than building such an organization of strong, tough, savvy field organizers loyal to the Trump campaign, he is relying instead on the RNC structure already in place, which has not been able to do this kind of heavy lifting for at least 15 years now. The massive amounts of money Trump has on hand despite the johnny-come-lately nature of his fund-raising indicate there are two things he’s not spending money on: ads and staff.
He can get away with the ads thing, kind of, if he is saving his money for an ad blitz later in the Fall. But he can’t build a get-out-the-vote operation that turns the key on Labor Day and expect to make up the ground lost to Team Clinton, who has been building staff, making phone calls, knocking on doors, and funneling all these voter outreach efforts back into a robust data-crunching operation which will enable them to micro-target key demographics in key counties in key states and start getting them to the polls next month.
Yes, I said “next month,” because while the 2016 Presidential Election ENDS on November 8, actual voting begins in half that time. Early voting is right around the corner, and some of these states are KEY to the Trump rust-belt strategy and/or swing states. Counting Tuesdays until Election Day, and using them as the start of a campaign week, the distribution is as follows (Most Excellent Source):
- Week of 9/20 – Minnesota, Michigan, Vermont
- Week of 9/27 – Illinois, Nebraska
- Week of 10/4 – Montana
- Week of 10/11 – Indiana, New Mexico, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia
- Week of 10/18 – Tennessee, Nevada, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Massachusetts, Texas
- Week of 10/25 – Hawaii, Louisiana, Utah, West Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, Florida, DC
- Week of 11/1 – Kansas
The following have early voting dates that vary by county: California, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, South Carolina, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming. And, of course, ALL of Washington State is mail-in ballots.
A REAL campaign knows this, and has people on the ground in all of these states whose job it is to make sure that people get absentee ballots who need them, (like our Juanita Jean is doing with Glen) and that absentee or in-person early votes start to get banked for their candidate on the first day possible.
The Clinton campaign has been identifying these voters for months now in key states, while the Trump campaign still thinks that the real deal of this election doesn’t start until after Labor Day. Well, Labor Day is September 5, and voting in Michigan begins 19 days later.
The first debate will be held two days later at Hofstra University. If Donald Trump bothers to show up, by the time he steps behind the podium, he will already be losing in Michigan, and in Minnesota, and in Vermont.
I think there’s a better than even chance that he doesn’t even know that.