Democrats tonight are voting in Michigan (130 pledged delegates) and Mississippi (36). Right now, the only path Bernie has to the nomination is to win the pledged delegate count and then convince enough unpledged (super) delegates to change their vote so as not to thwart the will of the people. But first, he MUST demonstrate that nominating Bernie Sanders is indeed the will of the people.
It’s a tall ask. He managed to win a few small caucuses over the weekend, but like Hillary in ’08, where every winning day saw her fall further and further behind in delegates, he lost Louisiana by enough that he lost the weekend. Today should be even worse. Hillary has large leads in the polls, and even if we assign all the undecideds to Bernie, Hillary’s lead will increase by 35 or so delegates.
With the concomitant 166 decrease in pledged delegates available, Bernie is running out of runway. He needs to get this campaign off the ground, but he’s had weeks to do that and he hasn’t accomplished it yet. After we have tonight’s results, we can talk about his path forward. But if he doesn’t shake things up tonight, there won’t be a lot of tomorrows left for him
On the GOP side, OMG. Trump still maintains his lead, despite the Cruz surge over the weekend. Rubio is on his way out, apparently: he will meet his destiny next week in Florida, where he never dreamed that all the bridges he’s ever burnt there would also torch his campaign.
Tonight, they have a caucus in Hawaii and a primary in Idaho, both closed, which favors non-Trumps, for 51 total delegates. In Michigan and Mississippi, there are 99 delegates at stake. That’s a pretty big haul, 12% of the winning total. They are all being assigned proportionally, and Trump leads in recent polls, mostly.
But it’s hard to quantify yet how much being vetted – FINALLY – by the GOP, the other candidates and the media is blunting his momentum. Trump finds himself very much in the same position as Hillary: a large lead with diminishing runway for his opponents. But he’s still a “front-runner” who has yet to score over 50% in even one contest.
That having been said, Cruz has not gotten the memo about a brokered convention, and is campaigning as if he’s going to win every state, which is putting Kasich in Michigan at risk to blunt Trump, and is really hurting Rubio in Florida next week, the first winner-take-all primary, and I do mean, all.
The only big play to watch for tonight is a Michigan win for Kasich. Trump could lose Idaho, also. But unless Trump goes 0-for-4, then the only game changer left is Florida, next week.
~Primo