You’ve heard me discuss “the pendulum” – that sweeping arc of history which describes the Conservative-Liberal dichotomy. Like a pendulum, it moves in one direction, gathering speed until sociological gravity says “whoa” and its momentum in that direction slows and pauses at its extreme.  Then it starts to go back in the other direction.  We have just recently passed a rightward peak, and are gathering speed going back in the other direction.

I have taken a look at the last 9 elections, going back to 1980, in order to gauge how the electorate is swinging. I broke them up into three elections from 1980-1988, four from 1992-2004, and the two since 2008.  Here are some statistics:

1980-1988 – “The Pits” aka The Reagan Years, by which I mean that George HW Bush ran as a third Regan term. In the 3 Reagan elections, the furthest swing of the electoral pendulum:

• Democrats lost by an average margin of 10 MILLION votes,
• Turnout was below 100 million and averaged 52% of the voting age population (VAP),
• From a low of 48% of the electorate in 1980, women rose to 52 then 53% of the electorate
• African Americans and Hispanics comprised 12-13% of the electorate.

1992-2004 – The Clinton/Bush Years indicated a sea-change, the flipping of the pendulum.   During these 4 elections:

• Democrats won the popular vote by an average of 3 million
• Turnout was around 100m and averaged 53% of the VAP
• Women’s participation remained steady at 52-54%
• AfAm/Hispanic participation rose steadily to 19% by 2004

2008-2012 The Obama Years indicate the first full run of a blue-shifted electorate as the pendulum gathers momentum going the other way.  In these two elections:

• Obama won by an average of 7 million votes
• Turnout was around 110m and has risen to 56.5% of the VAP
• Women stayed steady at 53%
• AfAm/Hispanic participation continues to rise to 23%

So during this shift, turnout is rising, women stayed steady in the majority and minority participation has almost doubled.

But while the electoral pendulum is shifted in one direction, the forces in power try to push its extremity further, or slow momentum in the other direction. This is what we see Republicans doing today.  But as the electorate shifts away beneath them, those in power tend to trim their sails to suit the prevailing winds, so the Courts will become more liberal, and the Congress will become more liberal, as the White House becomes more liberal.  There’s just a bit of a lag.  It worked the other way, too.

Republicans were storming into power in Congress just as Clinton got the White House. Within that context, within those times, he could not have won the White House by being anything OTHER than a centrist, and he could not have gotten any legislation through other than by working with a Congress dominated by Republicans and centrist Democrats.  Was Clinton as far left as we wanted him to be?  He wasn’t even as far left as he wanted to be.  He was only as far left as he could be.  Just as Nixon was only as far right as he could be.

This election will be a blue blowout; I only hope that we can overcome the political pitfalls the retreating republicans have left in our path and regain the House. Maybe not yet, but in time, as the next Supreme Court will start to undo some of the damage.  Speaking of, chew on this and think about the fall:

SCOTUS Appointments Swing back Dem 

• Nixon/Ford – 5 justices appointed
• Carter – 0
• Reagan/Bush – 5
• Clinton – 2
• Bush – 2
• Obama – 2 (+1?)

See the pendulum? Then avoid the pitfalls!