The Pits and the Pendulum
You’ve heard me discuss “the pendulum” – that sweeping arc of history which describes the Conservative-Liberal dichotomy. Like a pendulum, it moves in one direction, gathering speed until sociological gravity says “whoa” and its momentum in that direction slows and pauses at its extreme. Then it starts to go back in the other direction. We have just recently passed a rightward peak, and are gathering speed going back in the other direction.
I have taken a look at the last 9 elections, going back to 1980, in order to gauge how the electorate is swinging. I broke them up into three elections from 1980-1988, four from 1992-2004, and the two since 2008. Here are some statistics:
1980-1988 – “The Pits” aka The Reagan Years, by which I mean that George HW Bush ran as a third Regan term. In the 3 Reagan elections, the furthest swing of the electoral pendulum:
- Democrats lost by an average margin of 10 MILLION votes,
- Turnout was below 100 million and averaged 52% of the voting age population (VAP),
- From a low of 48% of the electorate in 1980, women rose to 52 then 53% of the electorate
- African Americans and Hispanics comprised 12-13% of the electorate.
1992-2004 – The Clinton/Bush Years indicated a sea-change, the flipping of the pendulum. During these 4 elections:
- Democrats won the popular vote by an average of 3 million
- Turnout was around 100m and averaged 53% of the VAP
- Women’s participation remained steady at 52-54%
- AfAm/Hispanic participation rose steadily to 19% by 2004
2008-2012 The Obama Years indicate the first full run of a blue-shifted electorate as the pendulum gathers momentum going the other way. In these two elections:
- Obama won by an average of 7 million votes
- Turnout was around 110m and has risen to 56.5% of the VAP
- Women stayed steady at 53%
- AfAm/Hispanic participation continues to rise to 23%
So during this shift, turnout is rising, women stayed steady in the majority and minority participation has almost doubled.
But while the electoral pendulum is shifted in one direction, the forces in power try to push its extremity further, or slow momentum in the other direction. This is what we see Republicans doing today. But as the electorate shifts away beneath them, those in power tend to trim their sails to suit the prevailing winds, so the Courts will become more liberal, and the Congress will become more liberal, as the White House becomes more liberal. There’s just a bit of a lag. It worked the other way, too.
Republicans were storming into power in Congress just as Clinton got the White House. Within that context, within those times, he could not have won the White House by being anything OTHER than a centrist, and he could not have gotten any legislation through other than by working with a Congress dominated by Republicans and centrist Democrats. Was Clinton as far left as we wanted him to be? He wasn’t even as far left as he wanted to be. He was only as far left as he could be. Just as Nixon was only as far right as he could be.
This election will be a blue blowout; I only hope that we can overcome the political pitfalls the retreating republicans have left in our path and regain the House. Maybe not yet, but in time, as the next Supreme Court will start to undo some of the damage. Speaking of, chew on this and think about the fall:
SCOTUS Appointments Swing back Dem
- Nixon/Ford – 5 justices appointed
- Carter – 0
- Reagan/Bush – 5
- Clinton – 2
- Bush – 2
- Obama – 2 (+1?)
See the pendulum? Then avoid the pitfalls!
Thank you for a terrific assessment of Pits and Pendulums. You have a way of explaining things that is easy to understand, and makes sense as well!
1Sounds like minorities are a-pushing that darn pendulum our way. Hope they turn out in droves and push it all the way to the left to help jump start the process of liberating America from the insanity of the Right.
2Primo, just for you, I will think about SCROTUS in the fall. Meanwhile there are two ways to fight corruption at SCROTUS. After the successful smothering of Fat Tony by his own pillow, maybe a casual drone strike of Ginni Koch Thomas, er Clarence, the next time he flies out to Indian Wells to pick up his script from Chuck and Liz. Or, DOJ could recognize that corruption is a problem and actually do something about that Koch fed rubber stamp.
The snacilbupeR want a litmus test for abortion, while we sane folks would prefer federal judges not be diploma milled out of Liberty U or on sabbatical from the Heritage foundation.
3And about time for that swing too.
FYI, I saw an explanation years ago of the American vs Soviet systems. The American ball could roll back and forth within certain limits, represented by walls– Constitution, prior electoral history, etc. The Soviet ball had no such walls, so it was sitting in a shallow nick surrounded by flatness. If it got out, who knows where it would go, so big spikes through the ball were holding it in place. And now, thanks to Putin, the spikes are pretty much back.
4Remember to vote at the local levels to help that pendulum along. Democrats need to retake the state houses by 2020 so that we can undo some of the gerrymandering when it’s time to redistrict again.
5Well said Primo.
Boys and girls, pay particular attention to the SCOTUS scoreboard through the Obama administration…
egg sucking snacilbupeR 12
Dems, 4, with one potential run halfway to first base.
No wonder the judiciary has acted cattywonkus since Tricky Dick stained the office of POTUS.
6Pendulum sounds eerily similar to scrotum and speculum and other ums wingnuts find disturbing about naked,sweaty bodies.
7lyntilla-didn’t Delay re-gerrymander Texas after the 2000 election by a couple years?
8What worries me is the voter ID nonsense. 600,000 disenfranchised in Texas? That puts a huge dent in the voting turnout. Are there any comforting comments you can give me?
9Another question. How did President Obama stand in the polls against McCain in the run up to the 2008 election?
10JanK: I have no comforting comments to give re: disfranchisement in 2016 except for this: 1) hope you have a friendly circuit court, or 2) Hope that Obama recess appoints Merrick Garland so we have a functioning SCOTUS that can overrule Unfriendly circuits again.
Get 1) or 2) then sue the pants off every Red State Vote Purging Anti-Democracy Secretary of State you can find.
Maryelle: at this point in 2008, Hillary was in almost the exact position Bernie is now, slightly better, actually, still fighting, and with a massive PUMA movement behind her.
Thus, until he had the full might of the Dems behind him, Barack was slightly ahead or slightly behind McCain through May, then got a real uptick when he closed the deal in early June and Hillary came around.
He was within the MoE (margin of error) of his final MoV (margin of victory) through the late-August Convention, but then McCain unveiled Palin and the GOP convention gave him a bump, which lasted a week or so, i.e. until she opened her mouth. After that, Barack was winning, trending upward, and always within a few points either way of his final margin of victory, which was around 7%
The Palin Factor: second week of September they were tied, then came the Charlie Gibson interview (“In what respect, Charlie?”) a MAJOR SNL bash (“I can see Russia from my house!”) and they were never tied again. By the end of the Couric interviews, Obama has a 6-9 point lead.
But I gotta tell ya, this cycle, I do not trust polls to be any more than trend indicators. I could be wrong, but any pollster who claims to have an accurate model for “likely” voters in the fall is IMHO lying through his capped and bonded teeth.
Call that the Trump effect.
11Gratias, Primo. What a fascinating recall of that unbelievable campaign. I’m still awed by it, and the sight of Rove going apoplectic over the election returns. They were so sure the black candidate was doomed and that their fix was in.
12Let’s do the math. All of T rumps triumphs have been inside the nacilbupeR party. He has proved that the T-people comprise slightly more than 50% of the party’s eligible voters.
13How does that 50+% stack up against all of the Dems.
Let’s turn out the vote in 2016.
Also, guys, in 2018. Poor turnout in 2010 is part of our current problems. At least 2020, census year, will be a Presidential election, which helps turnout.
14I heard a pundit on NPR say that the Green Party could hurt the Dem’s chances this go-round.
15OTH, there are several alternatives for Repugs, Independent, Libertarian and the #NeverTrump Party.
EPO – yeah, Thanks to the supreme court and Tom Delay the Republicans took two turns at redistricting after the 2000 census.
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