UPDATED: The Only Theory that Makes Any Sense…
UPDATE: Politico is reporting that the DHS is taking the August reinstatement conspiracy theory seriously in terms of stepping up efforts to follow discussions of extremists on social media, concerned about potential violence caused by disinformation pouring our of right wing media and lunatics like the Pillow Guy and other nonsense peddlers. This story is coming from those who are familiar with a private briefing by DHS to members of Congress.
ORIGINAL POST: Seth Abramson, a defense attorney and author, has been after Trump for years. His latest work is digging into how Trumpland planned and directed the insurrection on January 6, but he also has posited the only theory I’ve heard that makes any sense about one of Trump’s most outlandish lies, and that is how he’s going to be reinstated to the presidency in August. Now, you know, and I know that there is simply no mechanism to restore someone to the presidency, even if an election was stolen, which this one most certainly was not. Once the Congress certifies the Electoral College vote from the states and the new president is inaugurated, it’s over, game, set, and match period, end of story. No one outside of the line of succession to the presidency can become president unless he/she is elected in the next national election.
So what the hell is Trump and his loudmouths doing? Why is he repeatedly asserting he will be reinstated? Abramson says that is all a dodge to avoid indictment in NY. Abramson says that Trump believes that with his rallies starting back up and his incessant repeating of The Big Lie, he can keep his insurrectionist based whipped up and the threat of violence would be so great that prosecutors wouldn’t dare indict him for fear of major social unrest. This is the only thing that makes any sense to me, that Trump believes he can keep the grift going long enough to run and win the presidency again in 2024, which will hold back the prosecutorial wolves from the door another 4 years.
https://twitter.com/sethabramson/status/1400470960587816961?lang=en
Sounds crazy, right? Of course it’s crazy and I don’t think the NY AG or NY DA give a good goddam about Trump’s fantasies. If they can nail him, they will, and they most certainly owe it to all of us Americans who suffered through over 4 years of the Trump Shitshow to protect our democracy by prosecuting that son of a bitch. I do think Abramson is onto Trump, and having written about him for years, most certainly knows him well enough to have an informed opinion. Besides that, NOTHING else makes the slightest bit of sense.
yeah, that sounds like very Trumpian move. it won’t work of course. the next step in the “plan” (as it were), is to constantly, loudly, publicly shriek that it’s all a political plot to keep him from being elected in 2024, by indicting him now. again, a pile of hogwash, but the members of his cult will chomp right down on it, and FOX, et al will be blaring it 24/7/365.
1Deja Vu answered next week ~
“This is the end of my Reinstatement, I’m f**ked!
Goldman Thinks Trump Organization Will Likely Go Bankrupt If Indicted. No one will do business with any bank calling in all their loans and you can take that to the…. never mind.
Dan Goldman, former House Impeachment Manager and Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, breaks down the complicated indictments the Manhattan DA is likely to charge the Trump Organization with and explains the implications the charges will have on the future of the organization and on the former president. Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akS3Fhhglro
2I’ve given up expecting coherence from Trump.
Anyone who can stand up in front of a crowd generously described by media as 25-30,000 people and say, with a straight face,
“Media will not show the magnitude of this crowd. Even I, when I turned on today, I looked, and I saw thousands of people here. But you don’t see hundreds of thousands of people behind you because they don’t want to show that. We have hundreds of thousands of people here and I just want them to be recognized by the fake news media. Turn your cameras please and show what’s really happening out here because these people are not going to take it any longer. They’re not going to take it any longer. Go ahead. Turn your cameras, please. Would you show? They came from all over the world, actually, but they came from all over our country.”
Two months later, Trump is still going on about the size of the crowd: “The press doesn’t like to talk about it, but the real number was much, much bigger… It was tremendous numbers of people, not the Capitol, I’m talking about the rally itself, and it was a lovefest, it was a beautiful thing.”
In mid-April, Trump spoke at Mar a Lago, and “Describing the crowd at his January 6 rally — several thousand people drawn to Washington by Trump’s frequent pleas on Twitter — he claimed that “some people say it was over a million people,” a considerable exaggeration.”
So, expecting reinstatement to be President may be a plan to avoid prosecution — it may be a dream from an addled brain — it may be simply a matter of saying something and then repeating it because it got a good response from some he was talking to. Whatever it is, like you, I don’t believe it will impact the professional judgment of prosecutors.
3I hope the news of the indictment(s) against the trumpf organizations come to fruition, including the namesake. It’s been a long time coming and in my opinion, it’s been wishful thinking. I just hope this time it’s worse than his crime family thinks and he’s too busy trying to weasel out of the crimes he’s committed to even have rallies. I’m withholding optimism until I see what happens next week. Expect the noise networks to call it all political, and the cult to be outraged.
4I’m going with the simpler version – there’s no plan, just flinging as much bovine-derived organic fertilizer around and see what works out.
On a side note – funny how the “broken windows” theory of law enforcement doesn’t apply to corporations:
“Several lawyers who specialize in tax rules have told The New York Times that it would be highly unusual to indict a company just for failing to pay taxes on fringe benefits. None of them could cite any recent example, noting that many companies provide their employees with benefits like company cars.”
New York Times, Trump Organization Could Face Criminal Charges in D.A. Inquiry.
Perhaps there’d be less white collar crime if white collar criminals were indicted for low-level offenses…
5“Sounds crazy, right?”
Maybe, but –diabolic– is a far better description, fitting in with everything DJT and his luciferian minions ever do. Planned hellish evil at every turn, with a grifting hope of some illicit profits.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/diabolic#English
Diabolic:
Adjective
diabolic (comparative more diabolic, superlative most diabolic)
Showing wickedness typical of a devil.
6diabolic magic square
a cunning and diabolic plot
Extremely evil or cruel.
fires lit up a diabolic scene
Synonyms
devilish, mephistophelian, mephistophelean
demonic, fiendish, hellish, infernal, satanic, unholy
Derived terms
diabolical
I think Abramson’s theory makes total sense. I think f**king trump is as much of a malignant narcissist as anybody in history. If he found some kinda miracle defense that’d clear him of all wrongdoing and let everyone, including him, live in peace happily ever after, he’d ignore it.
He believes the Big Lie. It can’t be any other way. Having his followers start a civil war would be just fine with him. All the lives lost on both sides would give him the malignant narcissist’s equivalent of a warm fuzzy feeling.
If America doesn’t have him as it’s dear leader, it’s no longer America and isn’t worthy of existing, much less keeping the name America.
And John, IMHO, keeping a straight face in that situation wasn’t even a concern. I really don’t think the look of righteous indignation and repugnant entitlement he showed had to be faked after the first few rallies in the first campaign.
The people not there were just somewhere else, kept away by the people who would deny him his destiny.
He knew they were aching to be there though.
Pfff. Obviously.
So the more people he could convince at home that multitudes were flocking to his massive events, the more of them he could get to show up and adore him.
And give him their Social Security checks.
So more people would see the huge crowds and start flying his flags and buying more hats and shirts.
So more people would…..
You know, just your standard lovefest scenario.
I really believe that’s the kinda crap in his head, running simultaneously with how they’re (his angry sheep) all suckers.
But they’re HIS suckers.
7I’m not sure if I have the entire Trump’s Gonna Rise Again timeline in proper sequential order, whether or not there’s rhyme or reason behind it, but I believe it’s something like:
Late Summer 2021 – Reinstated as President
November 2022 – Run for Congress as a representative of his district
Early 2023 – Throw his hat in the ring for Speaker of the House
Sometime 2023 – Impeach Biden (even though Trump is now the reinstated President)
November 2024 – Run for President again (although he’s already served a second term as reinstated President, and is concurrently representative in the House, and Speaker of House)
If he can manage all that as a ruse to hold off the lawsuits and keep up his schedule on the golf course, I gotta say, I’ll be pretty impressed.
8On the upside, some who have had serious cases of COVID19 have been reinfected, and even a significant number of fully vaccinated people get ‘breakthough’ infections.
9So with DidJioT, at 74+ years old, there’s still a glimmer of hope that karma or whatever will finally smite this sonuvabitch down…
Donald who?
10Mr Tangerine Face only *suggested* running to get his followers money . It was also Insane Marjerine that said he will be reinstated .
11P.P.: “If America doesn’t have him as it’s dear leader, it’s no longer America and isn’t worthy of existing, much less keeping the name America.”
Just replace “America” with “Germany” and you have the same argument Hitler used on Albert Speer in the Fuhrer Bunker, when the Russians were closing in. I suspect P.P. was well aware of this connection, but wanted to point it out for anyone who has not read “Inside the Third Reich”. (If you have not, don’t bother – it was Speer’s attempt to justify himself after his 20 year sentence for war crimes.)
Which brings up another lunatic fringe theory: Trump will be reinstated on 8 August. Reason? The date is 8/8, well beloved by all the Nazis because of the Heil Hitler connotation.
12If keeping up appearances as the most (expletives deleted) selfish (expletives deleted) covidiot evuh is his goal, call him successful. Donnie** has a super spreader event aimed at Ohio. Time for massive contact tracing with which to nail his mass murdering @#*@#**@ to his criming ‘legacy’!
13I think the events of Jan. 6 turned off a lot of Trumpistas. There are apparently quite a few super-rich who are promulgating the Big Lie and the Rethugs are still trying to find anything to keep us divided. (I.e., Critical Race Theory, which none of them can define.)
I doubt there will be a big up swell even in Florida for him to run for any office. Although I will love seeing them squirm if he does try something like that. It would make Val Demmings look even better.
14There’s a lot of chatter/disagreement online about Trump’s mental issues. Dementia? Maybe. But I know when my mom developed dementia in her late 90s she became convinced my dad (also in his late 90s and requiring a Hoyer lift) was cheating on her.
15Stop overthinking it. Or rather, stop assuming there’s thinking involved in any Trump action.
You know, raccoons are pretty smart, but they got a rep among hunters as being super cunning, deliberately taking dogs down blind alleys, doubling back, etc. Turns out the dogs were just following the scent of a wandering beastie. No super smarts involved.
And Trump is no raccoon-level mind. He’s a squirrel. Dodging this way and that based on fears and whims. It’s not a strategy. Really, it’s been at least five years experience with the guy by now for everybody. This much should be obvious.
16Guilliani’s son is running for NY state governor.
He could pardon any state charges for his father and Trump if he won.
Trump is courting Elise Stefanik, R NY21 had a fund raiser for her after weeks ago.
Wondering if Guilliani stumbles, if Trump would encourage her to run.
Before Trump ran for POTUS there was an article written that the worst thing he could do was run for POTUS.
He opened himself and his business to all sorts of scrutiny that might otherwise have remained under the radar.
Self inflicted wounds are always the worst….
171. New York is not going to elect a Republican governor. I expect a primary challenge to Cuomo.
2. The August reinstatement theory is already inoperative, as Ron Ziegler would say. According to its author Mike Lindell, the Second Coming will occur in “the fall.”
3. Loopiest of all, some say that if/when the Republicans re-take the House they can just proclaim Trump speaker. Apparently there is no law the speaker has to be a Representative. He will then impeach Biden and Harris and have them both executed in Guantanamo, which he believes to be an island that “we own.” I did say it was loopy.
4. Yesterday Trump compared Giuliani to Eliot Ness, so he’s thinking about the man who brought down Al Capone for tax evasion when no one could get him on murder and racketeering. I find this interesting.
18No matter what the Old Pretender might be thinking, I hope this time DC law enforcement is prepared for any nut jobs who show up!
19Amen to this,, El Jefe, “they most certainly owe it to all of us Americans who suffered through over 4 years of the Trump Shitshow to protect our democracy by prosecuting that son of a bitch.” So many are SO SICK of Trump and his lunacy. No one should be too afraid of him or his crazy followers to do the right things, which are to indict him and keep going after those his worshipers who invaded the Capitol. As soon as we’re too afraid to take him on, we are doomed.
20Trying to make sense of Trump is futile. Remember that many people who have recovered from COVID have neurological damage and Trump did not have a mild infection. They threw everything they had to get him to recover. (No, not the malaria medication he said would work.)
21The “They can’t indict me because it will cause so much trouble” theory sounds very much like something Trump would think. It makes no sense in the real world, where–theoretically, at least– laws exist. But Trump doesn’t live in the real world, and neither does his cult.
22DonAinPennsyltucky: they should have had him drink bleach.
23OT Heads up: If any of y’all own beachfront condos and such, particularly somewhere like South Padre Island [SPI] for example. Pay heed to what’s being revealed about that Florida condo building that collapsed a few days ago.
Apparently that ~40 yeah old building, constructed around 1981, had some major design shortcomings, coupled with growing structural problems.
SPI had a major building boom from the late ’70s to mid ’80s during which many condos and hotels went up, some of those hotels were later converted to condos. The prime market for much of SPI’s boom back then were Mexican nationals, many of whom initially had some excess wealth, then later were trying to escape a series of peso devaluations.
There was then also a very deep Texas recession, triggered by the mid-80s collapse of the oil industry and the peso devaluations [South Texas is closely tied to Mexico].
That years long crash saw many of those condos get sold off for small fractions of their initial sales prices. For example, a unit that initially sold in the early 80s at $120K, eventually was being offered at $25 or 30K in the midst of the recession.
The quality of construction on most of those buildings was abysmal [the Valley has always had very corner-cutting developers and largely incompetent craftspeople]. I watched it happen since I lived and worked in PI & SPI and nearby for many years.
Given the probable shoddy initial conditions, and subsequent aging, plus the [still] theoretical influence of climate change caused sea level rises, I’d guess that SPI [and the other Texas coastal areas, plus elsewhere] may begin to see similar disasters happen before too long.
24JDM @16, “You know, raccoons are [merely] pretty smart…”.
25I’ll have a disagree with that, I’ve been getting soundly outwitted by those masked bandits for decades… the furry little fokkers are frikken geniuses, and they have much more time to fool around and whup your sorry ass… I gave up years ago, now I just make sure that there’s extra barncat food left out overnight for them. If not they can open any container, or they will go on a pissed off rampage and knock stuff around.
I’ve surprised them before to chase them off, had ’em turn around and stare me down, while lifting their paws and, I swear, their middle finger…