The Great Migration
As most people know, our democracy really isn’t a pure democracy or even a pure representative democracy. There were weights and counterweights installed in order to protect the rights and interests of smaller states in comparison to larger states. When you look at the representation in Congress you will notice that it doesn’t completely represent the will of the people 100 percent accurately.
This is particularly true in the Senate where each state has equal representation. The states represented by Democrats in the Senate represent nearly 70 million more Americans than those represented by Republicans, This is in spite of the fact that the breakdown is officially only 51-49.
Notice the talking points on the right as it pertains to the last presidential election. People talk about the number of counties that voted for Trump. They look at the large swaths of land that voted for Trump. They even look at the fact that more people showed up to his rallies and bought his stuff. They look at everything except for total votes cast. They can’t really defend losing by seven million votes overall, so they gloss over it.
The concept of one person, one vote is foreign in this country as it pertains to the presidential election, gerrymandered districts, and even local elections. The idea that a majority should dictate what is going on is something the right generally wants to avoid. So, we have been subject to minority rule for the majority of my collective lifetime.
I voted for the first time in 1992. During that time period, Republicans have won the majority in a presidential election exactly once. George W. Bush handily beat John Kerry in 2004. That’s it. So, to say that the country is a center-right country is a myth. When you consider that Republicans have served three terms as president in that time and appointed more than half of the court demonstrates what has happened to our country.
My interest from a political science perspective is what happens when these overbearing laws on reproductive rights begin to crop out in red states. We saw a migration to the south at the beginning of the 20th century when jobs and air conditioning changed the population patterns in the country. Texas became a destination and is now the second biggest state in the country in terms of population.
That could reverse itself as at the very least you can expect a brain drain in the state. Medical professionals will not want to practice medicine in Texas, so they will move to bluer states. Women and young families will follow them. Younger people and educated professionals tend to be blue politically. They will move to areas in the country that will also be blue.
So, how does that impact our politics? I would argue that puts a ton of pressure on a system that does not reflect the will of the people overall. If bluer states are already amongst the most populous and that will be exacerbated if this migration occurs then you have a definite problem in the Senate. If the Senate continues to operate where you need a 60-40 majority to get things done, it will be nearly impossible for things to get through in a body that will likely fluctuate around 50-50 no matter how many more votes Democrats get nationwide.
When you consider the fact that blue states contribute more to the coffers than blue states and essentially subsidize red states you will see that get wider if this kind of migration comes to pass. How does this impact the body politic? How does this massive migration impact politics and elections in the next generation? It obviously changed politics in last century, so how will it impact politics in the next century? Time will tell.
Funny but in Tennessee the story is that people are moving here from California to get away from a blue state.
1Interesting take on it, Nick! Thank you.
I’m chiming in because I moved from Virginia to Delaware this past summer. I’d always intended to move home after I retired – some 2 years hence, at a minimum – but remote work and Glen Youngkin made me re-think the timing.
So, at least one of us has made the determination and relocated to bluer climes. And my new, tiny, state has just as many senators as my old, large state did…
2Cook County (Chicago) has a population more than N. D., S. D., Idaho, and Montana. They have 8 U. S. Senators together, Cook’s Senators are from the rest of Illinois. I imagine that the same is true of Huston, L. A. and most other large metropolitan areas. One man, one vote?? Not so much. Of course, like Nick said, never was and never meant to be.
3When I was young, I had to wait until 21 to vote, then they changed it to 18. This was during a stressful time in our country with Nixon, Watergate, Vietnam, supply/ demand issues, etc. I have voted in every election since. Our young people need to register and actually vote all the way through the entire ballot IN EVERY ELECTION! That’s one way to help us all.
4I’ve said this before that our system of electing a president places more importance on the amount of dirt between people than the actual number of people voting. Same for the senate. Nick, your comments make that point very clearly. That there’s only been one republican clear majority (popular vote) for president since ‘92 is quite remarkable. Had it not been for a James Comey in 2016, HRC would have won the popular vote by a landslide but not sure it would have overcome the flaws in the electoral college. Of course now, republicans need to resort to cheating, lying and insurrection as well as the electoral college advantage..
5Good commentary Nick.
Boebert is a good example of what we get in red districts with lots of rocks and dirt between voters. It took her four tries to pass her GED, but as long as she knows to pepper the words “constitutional” and “freedom” in with her apologies for yet another indiscretion, people will vote for her. The miracle of modern carpet bagging lets her find even safer districts when she’s worn out her welcome after a term or two.
I think there are people who would vote for a parrot if it only knew the two words constitutional and freedom, as long as he or she had an (R) next to Polly’s name on the ballot, and it identified as male or female.
6I’m from up North and there’s a lot of dirt and land and water between people. A few years back taking a drive even farther north than I live there seemed to be bunches of Trump signs on lawn and in front of tracks of land. I thought that we were traditionally a blue state, so it was either that people were being paid to put these repulsive (to me) signs on their properties or a boat load of Republicans had moved to Maine. Looking through public records it turns out that there was a rash of Republicans that moved to Maine in 2015/2016, or peeps that registered as R’s. How do we stop that migration?
7My dear daughter in law declared she was not gonna die in Texas so they are researching places for retirement.
8I’d be outta here in a NY minute were it not for the fact that, IMO, I have a duty to not abandoned the home I love to MAGAs.
The state is so gerrymander and the winner take all for EC throws all of us in the Trump supporters. I will start writing my state reps to consider apportionment rather than winner take all. At least it would better reflect that not all Texans love what Abbott and Patrick are up to.
“constitutional” and “freedom”…
The word “patriot” added* makes the unholy trinity of MAGA mindmeld masturbatory manipulation.
All suckessful Rethug politicians learn the key words and phrases in their required Rethuglikan Party bootcamp propaganda courses.
Simple stuff repeatedly spooned out to their zombie hordes, incredibly effective. Throw in the derogatory terms about libtards, commies, nazis, etc., and the slavering MAGAots slurp it down and beg for more; and whip out their credit cards.
* Adding a word like “patriot” to certain classes of consumer goods and services allows a vendor to jack up the prices by 25-100%+ over the exact same things marketed to average peeps. The word is used for prepper-type stuff, common products like flashlights etc., financial and medical services, etc.
Color it camouflage and jack the price even more. Have a minor RWNJ celebrity endorse it and the sky’s the limit.
Computer stuff marketed to ‘gamers’ works the same, designate something ‘for gamers’ and voila, 50%+ higher price [see Newegg online].
9The traditional pattern has to be ‘marine, sail or power boat’ stuff; ouch, BOAT = ‘Bring Out Another Thousand’…
Migration? Thats a really, really cool educated word. I know folks in AL who are working like mad to retire in NY, preferably in the beautiful forested areas like around Lake Placid. Reason? Well, it kinda goes like this: they have come to see all the southern Red states as rogues. Just ain’t safe enough. And if you are an obvious nerd in any of those areas, life there just ain’t for you.
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