The Great Migration

January 10, 2024 By: Nick Carraway Category: Uncategorized

As most people know, our democracy really isn’t a pure democracy or even a pure representative democracy. There were weights and counterweights installed in order to protect the rights and interests of smaller states in comparison to larger states. When you look at the representation in Congress you will notice that it doesn’t completely represent the will of the people 100 percent accurately.

This is particularly true in the Senate where each state has equal representation. The states represented by Democrats in the Senate represent nearly 70 million more Americans than those represented by Republicans, This is in spite of the fact that the breakdown is officially only 51-49.

Notice the talking points on the right as it pertains to the last presidential election. People talk about the number of counties that voted for Trump. They look at the large swaths of land that voted for Trump. They even look at the fact that more people showed up to his rallies and bought his stuff. They look at everything except for total votes cast. They can’t really defend losing by seven million votes overall, so they gloss over it.

The concept of one person, one vote is foreign in this country as it pertains to the presidential election, gerrymandered districts, and even local elections. The idea that a majority should dictate what is going on is something the right generally wants to avoid. So, we have been subject to minority rule for the majority of my collective lifetime.

I voted for the first time in 1992. During that time period, Republicans have won the majority in a presidential election exactly once. George W. Bush handily beat John Kerry in 2004. That’s it. So, to say that the country is a center-right country is a myth. When you consider that Republicans have served three terms as president in that time and appointed more than half of the court demonstrates what has happened to our country.

My interest from a political science perspective is what happens when these overbearing laws on reproductive rights begin to crop out in red states. We saw a migration to the south at the beginning of the 20th century when jobs and air conditioning changed the population patterns in the country. Texas became a destination and is now the second biggest state in the country in terms of population.

That could reverse itself as at the very least you can expect a brain drain in the state. Medical professionals will not want to practice medicine in Texas, so they will move to bluer states. Women and young families will follow them. Younger people and educated professionals tend to be blue politically. They will move to areas in the country that will also be blue.

So, how does that impact our politics? I would argue that puts a ton of pressure on a system that does not reflect the will of the people overall. If bluer states are already amongst the most populous and that will be exacerbated if this migration occurs then you have a definite problem in the Senate. If the Senate continues to operate where you need a 60-40 majority to get things done, it will be nearly impossible for things to get through in a body that will likely fluctuate around 50-50 no matter how many more votes Democrats get nationwide.

When you consider the fact that blue states contribute more to the coffers than blue states and essentially subsidize red states you will see that get wider if this kind of migration comes to pass. How does this impact the body politic? How does this massive migration impact politics and elections in the next generation? It obviously changed politics in last century, so how will it impact politics in the next century? Time will tell.