The Conundrum
As the January 6th Committee focuses all its attention on TFG, the evidence presented makes it indisputable that not only is he a Giant ShitBag, he’s a criminal guilty of seditious conspiracy and other crimes. Life for TFG is going to radically change in coming months with dozens of lawsuits and even criminal charges in his future. Recent polls are showing his death grip on the GOP is weakening, and many Republican voters are beginning to look elsewhere for 2024.
While I welcome Trump finally facing the music, taking him out politically presents a conundrum – besides Biden, the Dems have no candidate groomed or positioned to run for president in 2024. With Trump out of the way, the next choice for the GOP is Ron DeSantis who I would describe as TFG, only smart. DeSantis understands what issues drive his base to the polls and he is relentless. He’s been trying to get to the right of every other possible candidate in the last 2 years especially Abbott in their race to the Crazy Train 2024. After TFG, DeSantis is polling stronger by multiples than everyone else on the train. For the Dems, that’s not good.
I love me some Joe Biden, but he’s going to be 82 in 2024. That’s simply too old, especially up against a much younger loudmouthed opponent like DeSantis. That match up simply won’t turn out well. The big problem for the Dems is that there is no other obvious choice; Kamala polls around 37% approval, and currently polls about even with DeSantis and her name recognition is much higher than his, at least for now. That’s not great. Behind her are, Schiff? Newsom? Warren? Sanders? (God, please no). Booker? Roy Cooper? (gov of NC). Klobuchar? AOC? Buttigieg? Sherrod Brown? Of all these possibilities, Brown seems the strongest choice as he’s done well for years in Ohio which is more conservative than it is liberal. Buttigieg is a possible, especially now that he’s a cabinet secretary, but I’m not convinced he’ll have a enough broad appeal, especially with low information voters. The rest are either not ready (AOC) or unelectable, like Warren and Sanders.
In the end, the Dems face a tough choice. I would vote for any Dem over DeSantis, but I’m not your typical voter, and this is the problem for 2024. Typical voters don’t pay close attention until it’s almost too late, and tend to follow the herd. That’s how TFG eked out a win in 2016; DeSantis has the advantage for 2024 of a strong base and coming from probably THE key battleground state giving him a huge leg up on everyone else.
Such is the problem with the Dems; unlike the GOP, the Dems do almost no grass roots growing, and that makes the party weaker. One illustration of the difference between the two parties is that of the pyramid. Repubs build a broad base, running for school boards, precinct chairs, and town councils. On this base is built a large population of up and coming politicians, and those who rise to the top become the leading candidates with president on the top of the pyramid. The Dems do the opposite; there’s very little broad grass roots work so presidential candidates are on their own to get enough attention to get nominated (Obama was the textbook example of that). Once the candidate is selected, the entire party then piles onto that candidate forming an upside down pyramid that is 100% dependent on the candidate; if he/she fails, the entire party collapses and then has to rebuild. Relentless grass roots development is how the GOP has come to dominate in most states, and the Dems haven’t figured it out yet.
That brings us to 2024. The January 6th Committee stands a really good chance of taking out TFG either by actual criminal charges from the DOJ or at least damaging him enough to kill his 2024 chances. That brings DeSantis, who’s a much stronger candidate. The Dems don’t have an answer for that. It ain’t pretty, and I’m not hopeful.
Truth well told.
1For years the GOP has cultivated and groomed their base, gotten them to the polls and elected their nominees; they’ve played the long game. Their push has been threefold – lower taxes for rich folk, union busting and deregulation of industry, and their sheeple have gone along. Cat herding Democratic leaders just don’t seem to have an overarching plan.
2Amen to that, Grandma Ada, except that the poor folk see “lower taxes” and think it’s going to make them rich and solve all of their problems. But lower taxes will fund even less of the social remedies that they really need.
3Grandma Ada, let’s not forget the pillar of filling the courts with extreme rightwing judges, including 6 of 9 Supreme Court appointees made by presidents who did not win the popular vote. And it’s not just the Supreme Court, it is throughout our judicial system. These judges have and will continue to dictate tax policy by allowing the purchase of representatives, allowing for more deregulation of industry and making it more difficult for unions to organize. The Republican Party has played the long game with the judiciary, they have won, and now they have the means to obtain a chokehold on power even if they represent a minority of Americans.
4I am sorry to say that, to get the independents and anti-DeSantis voters to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate, the Democratic candidate probably cannot be a woman or a person of color…and probably not a well-known Democrat of any flavor (Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, Schiff).
Two years out, I’m thinking a Newsom/Buttigieg ticket. If Newsom does create a California insulin and the California economy remains strong, more Californians should vote which would cancel out the Florida vote for DeSantis. Am I making any sense?
Pete is a deep thinker and a wonderful speaker.
At 54 and 40, both are young enough to carry the party forward.
5Well put Nick. I’ve felt this way for a year. I would hope the Democratic leadership will come to their senses soon and start showcasing a stronger 2024 candidate. Wish Biden would get on board with the reality of his future as well.
6Also, a 2024 candidate better speak directly and clearly with the Latino voters because we’re quickly losing them. They could help in a number of big states and battleground states, including the home of Desantis, not to mention the future.
Every senator thinks they should be president, but governors have a better track record of actually winning the office. Living in a red state, I worry about how bad Newsom will be smeared just for being from California. I don’t know much about Roy Cooper, but as governor of a southern state, it will be harder for Rethugs to stereotype him right out of the gate.
DeSantis is dangerous, but he never had his own TV show. He’ll be a formidable candidate, but he may not be able to reproduce the zeitgeist of a Trump rally and all of the free publicity Trump got from it.
7The election is more than 2 years out. My constant refrain this summer is “Things Change.”
I dunno what the future will bring — obviously, as I thought 1980 Reagan was going to lose, I thought 2000 Bush 43 was going to lose, I thought 2016 Trump SURELY would lose. With that sort of record, I really don’t know.
HOWEVER:
1. there’s an ongoing investigation of Republicans in Florida, with an insider who has flipped and is cooperating extensively, enough to avoid sentencing (again). At the very least, it is quite possible DeSantis is going to be associated with some in the Florida Republican firmament who wind up with indictments and, before 2024, will be on trial.
2. there’s a chance that ongoing factions in the Florida Republicans wind up in an uncivil war. There are at least 3 on the 2024 “mentioned” list — DeSantis, Rubio, & Scott — they may not play nice among themselves and blow up the chances for each of them.
3. Republicans have occasionally elevated the previous also-ran for the next cycle. Sen. Cruz may have something to say.
4. IT IS MORE THAN TWO YEARS OUT. In 2014, the NYT was willing to write “Former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Mitt Romney, and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey were thought to be the top three potential Republican candidates for president.”
5. In Summer of 2018, “Las Vegas bookmakers think [Harris] has a good shot at being the United States’ first female president. Betting site Oddshark has her tied with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders as having the best odds to be the Democratic nominee.” CNN’s Analysis by Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten had a top 10 list, including 5. Bernie Sanders; 4. Kirsten Gillibrand; 3. Kamala Harris; 2. Elizabeth Warren; 1. Joe Biden
and finally, 6. Assuming Biden chooses or cannot run, there are going to be choices. Ballotpedia has a LONG list of “those mentioned” for the 2024 Democratic nomination. Many are far-fetched (or more than a bit ‘tetched”) in my opinion. Some who seem more plausible include Beshear, Booker, Buttigieg, Cooper, Harris, Inslee, Klobuchar, Murphy-CT, Murphy-NJ, Pritzker, Warren, Whitmer. Here in Denver, there’s been a word or two about Polis as a could-be contender.
8I know Cooper – he’s a good, middle-of-the-road Democrat, smart, and a nice guy. I can’t see him stirring up the base and he’s not been a Party-builder in NC. The strong NC economy would be his best card, along with the fact that he’s been our firewall against Republican overreach in the legislature – he does know how to use his Veto!
Of the list, I’d say Sherrod Brown has the fewest negatives.
9Try not to worry so much. Remember that both Clinton & Obama were dark horses who no one had even heard of 2 years before their election, and both served 2 terms. Democrats specialize in really good dark horses, and I have faith that we’ll get one again.
10I’ve been around almost since the Flying Spaghetti Monster (bless his noodly appendages) invented dirt, and I remember how the Texas NSGOP worked to build their party from that dirt up through the 1950s and 1960s. The Dems absolutely need to be doing the same thing now, and they’re not. It’s like they think that if they put a good candidate for President in front of us that we’ll all get starry eyes and fall in line. Sorry, but it doesn’t work that way. They need to do some serious party building, or we’ll be stuck with the likes of Abbott and Paxton for the foreseeable future.
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