People that know me well know I love baseball statistics. I’ve even written about them once or twice before. Even though analytics have made their way into football and basketball, there is a special love between the analytically minded and baseball. It’s a more one on one sport, so it lends itself to that sort of thing. Like anything else, there has been a backlash to analytics from people we might classify as “get off my lawn” guy.

I’m not going to bore you with statistics like weighted on base average or hard contact rates or anything like that. Yet, there is a divide like that in society. At this point, many of the anti-vaxxers are jumping on the statistic that those that get COVID have at least a 97 percent survival rate. So, why sweat it?

Not coincidentally, these are the same folks that feel they need to carry a gun everywhere to keep themselves safe. This comes despite all of the available evidence to the contrary. The evidence is overwhelming. Guns are more often used or misused in the home for assaults, murders, and suicides than they are to thwart would be assailants. Yet, when you live outside the numbers you are free to believe anything I suppose.

The best analogy I have heard as it pertains to COVID is to imagine a bowl of M&Ms. We can even split the difference to make things easier. There are 100 of them in a bowl. Two of them will kill you. Sure, the odds are forever in your favor if you decide to eat one. Those of you adept at the math could calculate the odds if you choose to eat a handful. Everyone can calculate the odds if you choose to eat zero.

That’s really the whole point here. Dying at the hands of a rogue M&M is an unforced outcome. If you get vaccinated, wear a mask, and practice social distancing your death rate drops to nearly zero. It is almost like declining to eat any of the M&Ms. You know the outcome.

Yet, millions have chosen to eat the M&Ms anyway. Unwittingly, they’ve chosen to eat multiple M&Ms without even knowing it. They obviously don’t know how numbers work. If the death rate is one to three percent for everyone then that number includes vaccinated and unvaccinated Americans. The death rate for vaccinated Americans is practically zero even if they contract COVID. Therefore, logic would clearly dictate that the odds jump for unvaccinated Americans.

I’m not an expert on health related statistics and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I can harbor a guess that if roughly half of the population is vaccinated then unvaccinated people might see their odds roughly double. So, one to three percent becomes two to six percent (or some similar number).

Overlooking some of these obvious facts is par for the course. They do the same thing with their guns and likely do the same thing with their health in other areas. We even see combinations that would be comical if they weren’t so tragic. Let’s combine alcohol and guns just to see the multiplication effect. The actuary tables on these Americans has to be entertaining for people who are into that sort of thing.

As much as I enjoy baseball statistics, I don’t make it a habit to delve into these. No one is hurt when a hitter strikes out or a pitcher is pulled from the game. All these numbers do is describe pain and suffering. Every note on a page describes someone’s tragedy and it is impossible to derive any enjoyment from that. However, a basic understanding is helpful. As the computer in War Games said, “the only winning move is not to play.”

Okay, I stumbled on this one on the news today. For those that don’t want to go beyond the paywall can see the same story here and in other locations I’m sure. It was featured on the news here locally and thankfully for you and I, some intrepid journalists snuck into the legal proceedings and made a recording. Following is the transcript from the original court battle.

Plaintiff: Your honor, that them doctor over there is refusing to give my gramps the dewormer medication for his Covid.

Judge: Is this true (gestures to defendant)?

Defendant: Yes, your honor. That treatment has not been vetted by experts and we decided after consulting with our experts that another treatment…(interrupted by plaintiff).

Plaintiff: Your honor, my cousin Rufus works at the “Stop N Shop” over there in Cleveland. He sent me a video on the YouTubes how that “I” stuff cures the Covids. The video proves it and everything.

Judge: Do you have this video handy?

Plaintiff: Let me look on my Facebook……yup, I got it.

Defendant: You cannot be serious.

Judge: (after watching video) As serious as a heart attack. I’m convinced. Give him the dewormer.

Defendant: And you got your medical degree from (trails off)? 

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We protect the identity of our sources, so they will remain anonymous for now. Of course, some might question the exact verbiage above and that’s fine, but the judge did order the hospital to give him the medication he requested. Of course, given that the state doesn’t want to allow women and doctors to make decisions for their own health, I guess the jurisprudence works out. Still, I think someone should check the judge for brain activity. Whoever that is, it better not be a doctor. Apparently they aren’t qualified to make medical decisions now.

Lunch breaks are short these days, but considering all of the COVIDs going around it seems like a good time for an update. As most of the regular readers know, I teach in one of the school districts that decided not to mandate masks. This is in spite of the fact that all of our schools are in Harris County.

I get it. You have the governor saying one thing and the county judge saying something different. As many of the social media memes say, you have all of the medical doctors and PhDs saying this and yet my buddy Earle (who made a D in Biology) is telling me something else. Who do I believe?

El Jefe and Juanita were all over the governor yesterday, so I’ll just say that this is what the English teachers call irony. I think it’s situational irony, but I’ve slept since we reviewed irony with my sophomores. I just know that it isn’t Alanis Morrissette irony.

At least our district has had the presence of mind to post signs in English and Spanish recommending the masks. Of course, some of our campus leaders are wearing masks and some aren’t. A majority of the students are wearing masks. So, maybe not all is lost.

Our campus is a unique place. We teach kids trades where they can become certified before they graduate. That includes vet tech and child guidance. We have three and four year old children roaming the halls and the occasional dog as well. While that makes for an interesting environment on most days, it is especially worrisome these days with COVID. Even if every student of the school were vaccinated, those preschoolers certainly aren’t.

I manage a group of about 20 students every year. A couple of them are home because someone in their family tested positive. Then I have a few more that might be home schooling because our district doesn’t offer a virtual option. Statisticians will tell you about the dangers of extrapolating from such a small sample, but our minds can’t help going there.

So, while the rest of the world struggles how to handle the news of our beloved governor getting the COVID, those of us here are bracing for the worst. The kids are packed in like sardines and we all know how that will turn out. If you pray to a supreme being we’d love a shout out. If you don’t then whatever positive thoughts you can muster are well appreciated.

H. Scott Apley was a Dickinson city council representative and a member of the Texas GOP executive committee.  He was also an anti-vaxxer and anti-masker.  He’s railed against public health policy and flaunted guidelines to keep people safe.  Last Friday he posted a claim the COVID vaccine doesn’t work on Facebook.  Over the weekend, he, his wife, and his son all tested positive for COVID.  He was admitted to a hospital in Galveston on Monday, and he died yesterday.

Oh, and here’s his Facebook profile pic:

He gave his life “owning a lib”.  He sure showed us.

A funny thing happened last night. We were watching the Olympics and minding our own business when we perused CNN online and saw the headline and picture. It was someone my wife had gone to school with. She was right there plastered on the headline. Seems she had not taken the vaccine and was now in the hospital.

She was quoted as saying that she wasn’t anti-vax, but just hadn’t gotten around to taking it. Sure. Makes perfect sense. There are tons of things I don’t seem to get around to doing. I haven’t finished cleaning the garage. I haven’t gone to the dentist in years. There are still a stack of papers on the kitchen table that need to be sorted. I’m sure many of you have a similar list of chores that keep piling up.

A part of this is simple priorities. We do the things that are important to us and put off the things that aren’t. So, for this person it seems getting the jab just wasn’t a priority. She admitting being mad at herself and my wife confirmed she has been like this for the past 30 years.

Some people are selfish. Some people are lazy. Okay, let’s get real here. Most people are selfish and most people are lazy. Most people don’t do what’s best for them even when they know what that is. For approximately half of the population, it is also about knowing more than the experts and not wanting to be told what to do.

In less than two weeks we will be returning to school. The governor (in his infinite wisdom) has lifted the mask mandate. To put it more accurately, he has said that you cannot mandate masks. So, some people will wear them, but most people likely will not. It is the same with the vaccine. Some people got the shot and some people didn’t

As negative as it might sound, this just isn’t good enough. Time and memorial have proven that we can’t successfully do this. You can’t simply allow people to make up their own mind on things like this. They have to be drug, kicking and screaming, into the future. It happened with the polio vaccine. It happened with the small pox vaccine. It’s happened with the measles and the mumps. We had to force people to get the shot.

Small pox is gone. Polio is virtually gone and certainly gone in the United States. We’ve put a serious dent in measles, chicken pox, and the mumps as well. Your feelings and my feelings didn’t matter. We got the shot or we didn’t go to school. We could find an obscure YouTube video or a Google site that spouted some bullshit all we wanted. We still got the shot.

COVID isn’t a dirty garage. COVID isn’t a stack of papers on the kitchen table. COVID isn’t a cavity or potential root canal that is being pushed back. It’s not an uncut lawn or faded siding on the house. Now, that we are going back to school it is high time we start requiring the shot at least of all the adults working in the school. Children over 12 should be getting it too. COVID doesn’t care about your feelings about vaccines and we shouldn’t either. Sit down. Shut up. Get the shot.

I’ve  been told I complain a lot. It comes naturally I guess. Teachers as a group complain a lot. It’s our favorite pastime in the teacher’s lounge. It extends to time at home and then our time here. There’s nothing wrong with letting off a little steam and cussing under your breath a little. Yet, at some point we need a dose of positivity.

Everyone has their only personal stuff and I’m no different. My summer has been spent in one doctor’s office after another as I try to manage the effects of diabetes on the body. I look for silver linings anywhere I can get them. Combine that with COVID and it’s enough to make anyone go running to the funny farm.

Ironically enough, that’s where I found a silver lining. Mental health is usually something no one focuses on until there is a mass shooting. Then, it becomes a convenient crutch to lean on until the news cycle moves to the next crisis. While Washington and Austin dither, some localities have been making changes to address it.

My local district now employs two student support counselors in every high school. They made the move following the Santa Fe shooting. Someone apparently decided that simply giving lip service to mental health was not enough. Funny, but it is the go to response for conservatives. Quarantine was bad because it damaged our mental health. Remote learning was bad because it damaged our mental health. While these facts are not deniable, it invites us to step up and actually make lasting change like our local school district.

Similarly, seeing the Simone Biles and Naomi Osaka stories from this summer further highlight mental health and our need to do something different. Their bravery hopefully will lead not only to lasting change within the athletic world, but also lasting change outside of it too. It will also hopefully lead to more of us admitting when we need a little help.

The worst events in our lives can have positive byproducts. It will never erase the negativity, but it can become a positive focus to get us through. That can happen both individually and collectively. I’d never want to live through the last five years again, but maybe something good can come from it. At least I can have the temerity to hope that’s true.