Greg Abbott released another ad where he regaled us with Joe Biden’s supposedly open border policy and how Abbott was protecting Texans from the big, bad Mexican cartels bringing over drugs from south of the border. These ads are littered all over sports talk radio these days.

When the show returned to its regularly scheduled content, the deejays were talking about the theory of sunken cost. In this case, it referred to whether a team should let go of a player they had invested heavily in. The organizations that do the best are the ones that realize their mistakes early on and pivot effectively.

The fallacy of sunken costs is basically our tendency to double down on a belief, strategy, or endeavor because pivoting would be an admission that we were wrong and that we’d wasted time, money, and/or energy on a bad idea. The concept is really a two-pronged concept. First, there is the reluctance to give up because of the previous time, money, and energy wasted. Second, there is a reluctance to give up because we would have to admit that we made an error in judgment.

So, let’s take a look at the ads being played on the radio as an example. The ad focuses on three belief structures that are more or less untrue. The first is that illegal immigration is on the rise. We can see when we look at the numbers that it has been in steady decline in recent years.

The second portion of that fallacy is that undocumented immigrants are somehow inherently dangerous. The ads focus on law enforcement and how Abbott is protecting us from the big, bad immigrants. Yet, when we look at numbers from the same source as above, we notice that undocumented immigrants commit crimes at a much lower rate than legal immigrants and natural born citizens.

So, that obviously plays into the third fallacy of the commercial. Violent crime rates are on the rise nationwide. There is an assumption that this means that the borders have become more dangerous. Yet, they seem to be in decline on the southern border. Multiple reports and studies demonstrate that a border wall would not effectively reduce crime at the border or in the country at large.

The question is how we free a subset of the population that seems to be wrapped in fear and free them from the clutches of red herrings and misinformation? Pundits have long known that when you can sell the country on daddy issues (defense, crime, safety) then conservatives usually win. When mommy issues are the most dominant (education, health care, human rights) then the progressives usually win.

However, this goes beyond that. It goes to a group of people that have obviously backed the wrong horse. They’ve watched that horse come in last in nearly every race at the track. He talks about protecting them and he clearly doesn’t do that. He talks about how corrupt his opponents were and he is clearly the most corrupt politician in the history of the country.

It’s clearly not about stopping the steal or draining the swamp anymore. Those excuses died a long time ago. It is very simple. The longer people hold on to their love and adulation of a thoroughly evil man the harder it becomes to give up on that love and adulation. They would then have to admit that the love and adulation was misplaced. That’s admitting that they’ve wasted time, money, and brain power. That’s admitting they were duped. The greatest con anyone can pull is the con of getting you to accept being conned because it’s just too painful to admit you were conned.

It’s almost as if I predicted it. I wish I I could say I was clairvoyant. I wish I could say I have massive powers of deduction. I suppose I could say that, but no one would take me seriously. It would be like predicting the Texans finish in last place in the division next year. It’s hardly a brilliant prediction and this situation could be seen coming a mile away.

 

Greg Abbott has suggested building a wall on the southern border. I wonder where he got that idea from. Moreover, one of his would be opponents Allen West suggested it as well. Furthermore, Abbott wants to round up migrants and send them back where they came from. He is even planning a joint task force with Arizona to do the trick across state lines.

 

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why he is doing this. It’s a combination of things. First, when someone has done something wrong the best thing to do is make sure no one pays attention. Magicians do it all the time. They focus your attention at one spot so you’re not paying attention to the other hand. Look at the shiny object in this hand and ignore what the other hand is doing.

 

The second point is that someone still casts a long shadow over the party and those that remain have to make a choice. Either they stand their ground and become a part of the opposition or they keep diving to the right in hopes that he gives them his approval. The more who enter the fray the worse it’s going to get.

 

Like I said, I predicted this along with thousands of others. Abbott has a long history of doing this. He isn’t a bad guy necessarily. He’s certainly not a crazy one. He’s just a weak one. Every time he has had to make a choice between the base and reality he chooses the base. Of course, whether that makes him bad is in the eye of the beholder.

 

First there was Jade Helm. If you don’t remember you can be forgiven. The military were doing training exercises in the hill country and suddenly kooks and jackasses came out in force saying that it was going to be a federal takeover. He could have ignored it. He could have made a statement that there was no reason for alarm because they do this stuff all the time. He could have called them out as idiots and kooks. He did none of those things. Instead he said he was sending a letter to make sure they didn’t do anything untoward.

 

It was classic Abbott. He didn’t really do anything but it was a gentle nod in their direction. It was a gentle nod to the conservative crazies that he was one of them. Those same folks that could have predicted this latest capitulation also predict not a single brick will be added to a wall. That was never the point of the wall anyway. It’s the gift that keeps on giving. You make a lot more by saying you will build it then by actually doing it.

 

So, no pats on the back here. We all know the score and we all know what’s going on. The next year will be a fun year for those of us that aren’t crazy. We have multiple crazies competing for the chance to be governor and the guy sitting in the chair that must act like he is in order to get their support. Buckle up. It’s going to be a lovely ride.

In true form, Trump made an ass of himself (again) today by pushing his border wall bullshit;  he pushed said bullshit in front of children who just wanted to find Easter eggs and frolic on the South Lawn of the White House.  The Easter Grinch showed up, and his name is Donald.

Sheesh.