If you’re a betting person, Nate Silver has some numbers for you before you roll the dice and lose your $2.

In taking back the Senate, Silver says …

Republicans are vulnerable because a number of their blue- and purple-state senators who won election in the Republican wave year of 2010 are now on the ballot again. Furthermore, Trump could have a negative effect on down-ballot races; so could Ted Cruz, or someone nominated after a contested convention.

In what Silver calls back-of-an-envelope math, he comes up with this.

A 40 percent chance of President Clinton with a Democratic Senate.
A 30 percent chance of Clinton with a Republican Senate.
A 20 percent chance of President Trump (probably with a Republican Senate).
A 10 percent chance of Cruz, John Kasich or some other Republican.

Of course, these numbers mean something gooey and sticky to Republican senators.  If they don’t allow a hearing on President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, will Hillary Clinton and a Democratic Senate nominate Bernie Sanders for the Supreme Court?  Okay, so not Bernie but likely someone far more liberal than Merrick Garland.

Polling suggests that a majority of the public wants the Senate to hold hearings on the next justice. Thus, blocking the appointment of Garland could hurt Republicans at the margin and further reduce their chances of keeping the Senate.

Silver also argues that the Republican base isn’t near as big as we thought it was.

Yeah, but it’s just as dumb and mean as we always suspected.