Justice Antonin Scalia was not even cold when Mitch McConnell and Chuck Grassley said that there was no way in hell that his replacement would be chosen by a black man. This immediately presents a win-win situation for Democrats in a Presidential election year, because all of a sudden, it’s turned into a national referendum on Scalia’s successor, as well as Obama’s.

Given this starting point there are only a few ways that this can play out, none of them very good for snacilbupeR. We know this part: Obama submits a nominee for Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. Next, in its Constitutional role to advise and consent, the Senate can do three things: refuse to consider the appointment and leave the nominee dangling; conduct hearings but never move to a floor vote; or conduct hearings and hold a floor vote.

Here is how I see each of those scenarios playing out.

GOP refuses to consider the appointment and leaves the nominee dangling: this would be like just about every other open seat on the Federal bench. The Gerrymandered Old Party has gone into a four-corner game with a Blah Muslim Kenyan Communist Usurper President, except they are actually losing as they try to run the clock out.  Unlike the current plethora of open judgeships, the optics on this empty seat are SO BAD that it can actually affect the outcome of the November race for President, Senate and even Congress.

Right now, this is the default announced position of the party leadership. Like Wile E. Coyote at the edge of a cliff, they’ve dropped one (1) ACME Anvil towards Obama while they are still chained to it.  It’s gonna miss him entirely, but they’re gonna leave a GOP-shaped crater on the desert floor.  Winner: Dems.

GOP conducts hearings without a floor vote: Cracks have appeared among the moronic monolith, where idiots like Ron Johnson, soon-to-be-former Senator from Wisconsin, realizes he could increase that inevitability by being a complete douchebag, instead of only a regular douchebag. So he flip flops lugubriously on his prior “do less than nothing” approach.

I believe that the GOP is going to recognize the hardline approach will cost them more in the general, especially if they nominate Trump or Cruz. So we will at least get to hearings.  But refusing to pass a qualified nominee on for a floor vote would be the disaster scenario for them: they will piss off their base by not being hardline enough, while pissing off moderates and independents for still being too partisan by half.  Winner: Dems.

GOP holds a floor vote: this is the least risky set of plays for this Party in this Election, but it is still fraught with danger. To actually give a nominee an up or down vote is the bare minimum of acceptable governance for the majority of the American people.  Even if they vote an Obama nominee down by straight party lines, they will not have moved the needle much, and the pre-dead-justice narrative of the reactionary wing of the reactionary party will remain intact, without having overtly raped the Constitution.

However, I think it will still play badly in Peoria. How do you argue that the Presidential election is all about the Supreme Court, and then turn around and say, no, not really, the President doesn’t have much say at all?  Furthermore, the damage to your electoral chances was already done the minute McConnell opened his mouth.  Barring a complete disaster of epic proportions, the next President will STILL be a Democrat, and a Democrat elected on a liberal platform.  The Senate is now even more likely to flip, thanks to Wait-gate.  Winner: Dems.

If I’m a Republican Senator, and I want to actually have a chance to advise and consent, I want my party right now to dedicate itself to filling that seat with the President, and maintaining throughout the process that “it is our intention to fill that seat ASAP.” Otherwise, even the most considered and considerate hearing and vote will look like partisan obstructionism.  And if I live or die by the proposition that the NEXT President will be empowered by the American electorate to choose whomever he/ she wants to be the next Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, well then, I’ve just given her/him carte-blanche to put Alan Grayson (Harvard Law ’83) on the Supreme Court.

So really, the best play for Republicans is to drop the posturing nonsense, and hold hearings and floor vote(s) in complete good faith, and maybe, just maybe, do the right thing.  For once.

Winner: America!

~Primo