North to the Future
As we wail and moan over election results in the Lower 48, I want to direct your attention to Alaska’s single congressional race.
Mary Peltola, the at-large congressman from Alaska has been re-elected to a full 2-year term despite the fact that her two Republican opponents together got more votes than her mere (+ or -) 47% of the popular vote.
I think this is a possible glimpse at our future. Let me explain.
Alaska has adopted a ranked-choice primary system that makes California’s “jungle primary” look like a stroll through the zoo.
In Alaska, candidates are ranked as to preference, and receive votes not only by a earning a voter’s first choice, but also by their 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th choices.
They say that this is experimental, and is a way to negate a tendency toward extremes in typical primary voter choices. The narrative goes that typical primary voters are from the extremes of each party, so successful candidates tend to be from the extremes of the Left and Right. Moderates are often trapped behind the door among the also-rans.
It is this system that gave Alaskans the choice between two Republicans and one Democrat, splitting the Republican vote between TFG-endorsed Sarah Palin and Nick Begich, a candidate whose family legacies include a former congressman, a state Senator and a US Senator.
In short, Alaskans were offered a choice between a Democrat, A MAGA Republican and an establishment Republican.
In the other 49 states, only one of the Republicans on a primary ballot go on to compete in the General.
If it is true that America has evolved from a two-party state to a three-party one, Alaska has given us a view of a possible future where elections show the true cross-section of American politics through “Plurality Rule”.
Either that (and remember, this is Half Empty writing here), or the ranked-choice system will be rapidly dismantled by a still-shocked Alaskan electorate by a 50.9% majority vote.
It’s a bit more complex than that. Looks like Mary Peltola will win, but she does not win with 47%. It takes 50% plus one vote to win. We won’t know until November 23 when the ranked-choice votes are worked out. If enough voters who picked Begich as their first choice ranked Peltola as their second choice, that will do it. I think those voters would rather be boiled in oil than rank Sarah Palin, so I think Peltola will take it.
https://apnews.com/article/alaska-ranked-choice-voting-5ae6c163af2f8a70a8f90928267c4086
But you are correct: the ranked choice voting system broke the stranglehold of closed primaries, which worked to the advantage of the extreme right wingers.
And the primary was fun. Anybody can enter. We had 49 candidates for one office.
1It will only take another 3+% of those voters who ranked Mary second for her to win.
Slipstream didn’t mention that Santa Claus was one of the candidates.
2I’m still heartbroken about Santa Claus not winning.
I just can’t talk about it.
3I know, right? I wanted to vote for him too.
And for anyone who wonders, I love our voting system.
4Ranked-choice voting was used recently in Maine. Ex-governor and right wing radical Paul LePage moaned and groaned about it when a favored GOP candidate was defeated because of it, to no avail.
5Some people say Lisa Murkowski will hold her seat. Not at 50% plus one yet
So if the fourth place candidate’s second round choices go against her and the much larger number of third place candidate’s votes go for her……
The animated clips of animals or food choices in the RCV training videos were more fun than thus waiting will be
Guess we Alaskans have a new fall sport: guessing on election results. And watching candidates wait
6I have long complained about the limits of a two party system. Stable democracies the world over have three or more which often requires compromise and coalitions in order to rule. This gives everyone a voice and sometimes requires strange combinations where a very small extreme party has some degree of control. We would do well to seek ways to increase choices.
7And last, but not least, Mary Peltola is a congresswoman,not a congressman. Sexist language is hard to get rid of, but it’s necessary to do so.
8Here in WA, we have a top 2 primary. So it is possible to have a choice between 2 candidates of the same party in the general.
9I like that the ranked-choice gives the voters in the middle more of a voice, theoretically. I think over time, if Alaska keeps using this “experimental” election method, it might influence candidates to be less extreme, right or left. Wouldn’t that be interesting. The other wildcard is having someone like Sarah Palin in the mix.
10I was also thinking about the election for Governor in OR where an ex-democrat ran as an independent making it 3 person field. She was massively funded but failed miserably. The democratic candidate won with a narrow margin. It would have been a landslide without the independent on the ballot.
Open primaries like California’s or Washington’s make it easier for moderates to get past the die-hards. Ranked Choice voting, as used in Maine let’s 3rd parties compete in the public square without being spoilers. Combining the two, as Alaska is doing, can be the path to depolarizing Congress and electing candidates that can and will work across the aisle for the good of the country.
11I can understand rank choice selection (most mothers would) but just take a really good look at the American public, most of whom would be totally confused by that system. It may very well blow away voters who are totally locked into Yes and No decisions. I can voting precincts in the future with rank choice and all the election workers taking naps.
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