More Demn Math
The Washington State Dems have yet to get their entire act together – they have county conventions coming up on May 1 – and so Bernie Sanders has not seen all the delegate fruits of victory there since his March 26 precinct caucus victory, and won’t see final totals until May 21. Only 34 of their 101 pledged delegates have been allocated. I estimate that when the rest are, Bernie will pick up enough to narrow Hillary Clinton’s lead by 35 more delegates.
It won’t be near enough. Even with that assumption baked in, after her resounding New York win, Clinton maintains a 240-delegate lead, with a little over 1400 delegates left in play. After his Michigan surprise seven weeks ago, Sanders needed 55% of the remaining delegates to overtake her pledged delegate lead. Two weeks ago, that was up to 57%. Now it’s up to 59% of every delegate pool up for grabs from now on, including in the 5 Northeastern states voting tomorrow.
On yet another, super, Tuesday, there are nearly 400 Democratic delegates up for grabs, half in Pennsylvania. Unless something weird has happened that I can’t fathom yet, Hillary should come out of those contests with a net gain of around 60 more delegates. Between that and New York, she will have wiped out all of Bernie’s gains during his Revolution’s Long March through Western Caucasia.
This means that, by about 11 PM tomorrow, Sanders will need two thirds of the remaining delegates, just to catch up in the pledged delegate column. That’s not going to happen, and he will not catch up in the popular vote, either, where Clinton’s lead will be north of 3 million votes.
These numbers could change if Bernie overperforms tomorrow, a la Michigan, especially if he can steal a march in Pennsylvannia. But even that would not be enough to change the narrative, this time. And the Sanders team recognizes this, which is why they’ve been making noise about asking the superdelegates to overturn themselves, and forsake Hillary, for Party and Country.
Let’s see what they say after tomorrow night.
Bernie is now vowing to “fight to California!” Note, that’s not “all the way to the convention!”, that he was saying earlier. Wapo pointed that out. Good catch.
1BTW Primo, I love this:
“Western Caucasia”
Hahahahahahahaha!!!
2Ah, thanks Deb! I started to write “western caucuses” and then thought “hey!”
And then the was my other inspiration, “Jokes I Learned In The Fourth Grade.
“Why was Chairman Mao so tired on April 1st?”
3Primo, while your numbers are likely reasonably correct based upon your expertise in this type of game, I still am left shaking my head based upon my readings that a real chance to change this system by a qualified person who has a long track record of being honest and for the middle and poor classes is being passed by. And maybe a long time coming before we have this chance again.
4For what? First female prez? Experienced? In what ways? A continuance of the same insider wall street friendly modus operandi? In principle, what’s so different between the dem elites and the repub elites?
At this moment, emotionally, to he__ with these dishonorable mechanizations. Yea, I may feel differently by convention time.
Boy, what a revoltin’ development this is!
The super delegates might pledge to Bernie if he had the clear majority of regular delegates, but barring that it doesn’t make sense. And the fact that they were decrying the use of the SD’s too long ago seems hypocritical.
5Path #1
Path #2
Path #3
Path #4
There are four remaining paths available for a Sanders candidacy in November. Actually, there are five, if Donnie Drumpf goes Libertarian and the Green Party adopts Bernie. Not sharing the first four which might give the snacilbupeR ideas. Aiding and abetting the enemy will never be part of my plan(s).
6daChipster: Because of the Long March…? Not sure that’s a fourth grade joke, unless your education was very different from mine.
I like some of Bernie’s ideas, and the way he’s fired people up, but he would have no hope of getting any of it through Congress. I just hope his supporters have the sense to realize that there’s still a hell of a difference between Clinton and the GOP.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/topoftheticket/la-na-tt-vicious-war-of-words-20160415-story.html
7Rhea, thanks for that link. The crazy things Keyboard Kommandos say! While Bernie is my first choice, any of the snacilbupeR candidates, (those named and yet to be named), are not a choice whatsoever. If HRC is the candidate and there are no viable paths to a saner alternative, expect the write-in, “other” and various protest votes to be at a minimum; probably considerably less than the Bush-Gore-Nader ‘uprising.’ In fact, would predict a somewhat less ‘third party’ style protest vote this year.
Saving my “excitement” for the down ballot elections. Flipping the Senate Democratic is essential. Taking the House would be even sweeter.
Old Mitch is almost becoming my new best buddy for all the damage he can do to the snacilbupeR. Thanks, Mitch. Keep up the good work. Honorable mentions to Chuckie Koch and Reince for all they do to highlight what a bunch of cretins roam among the snacilbupeR.
8“and forsake Hillary, for Party and Country.”
I believe both party & country have spoken, and in a resounding yell, they’ve both picked Ms. Clinton. so, what the sanders’ people are asking the super delegates to do, is ignore the will of both, violate the basic tenets of the democratic form, and select Sen. Sanders as the party nominee, instead of the person that actually won.
I sincerely hope this is coming from some of his over fevered supporters, and not the Sen. himself, because that would destroy his reputation in a heartbeat.
9Rhea: I guess I’ve always read above my grade level. Becoming class clown was due to the maturity level lagging in compensation.
10Van, I OFTEN found myself smh over EXACTLY the same thing, especially the two times *I* was the guy with the wan smile and queasy stomach and unlit unwrapped victory cigar going stale in my breast pocket: the candidate making the congratulatory phone call. The L word.
11Van59, your narrow focus on “wall street” issues ignores very large differences between Dem and GOP that affect many, many other people. All GOP candidates want to infringe on the personal freedom of all women and that is in the GOP state platforms. Clinton doesn’t, and a desire to infringe on women’s reproductive choice is not in Dem state platforms. All GOP candidates have pushed an agenda of fear and hatred towards non-whites, non-white immigrants (including legal) and non-evangelical Christians. Clinton doesn’t; fear and hatred towards persons of color, non-white immigrants, and non-evangelical Christians is not in the Dem state platforms. These are real differences, and they are differences that matter to me. They are not the only differences, merely important examples.
Between Sanders and Clinton, the difference that matters to me is this–and it’s a difference that disappoints me– Sanders has yet to articulate the kind of practical, achievable plans that–at this point in the campaign–he should have in place and be willing to talk about. I ignored that in the fall, and through the winter, but was increasingly frustrated and disappointed that he was still spouting sound-bites and not substance. He’s right about some things, yes: but he has (or expresses) no coherent, practical approach to fixing it. Clinton’s goals may be less ambitious but she can–and has–made clear how she will go about achieving them.
Many a good man would not make a good President, because though he has high ideals and is honest…that’s not enough. The job calls for more than that. No candidate is every perfectly qualified, but some are more qualified than others. Clinton is more qualified than Sanders not because she is a woman but because her experience across her political career is broader and deeper than his.
12I worked for Bernie prior to the Florida primary. As a result I’ve been invited to vote in the delegate election for one of the leaders of our team. I’m debating whether to vote or not.
The LAST thing I want is a massive floor fight at our convention. Let’s leave that sort of thing to the snacilbupeR shindig, shall we?
Add to that, I was disappointed in him during the last week or two when he began sowing dissension. I love what Bernie stands for – – right up to the point where he starts undermining a Democratic White House win and, possibly, even a take-back of the Senate. Then – not so much.
All that said, I don’t necessarily believe that Clinton would have an easier time than Sanders would in the general. Sure, they can hiss, “Commie Pinko Socialist!!!” at him [and they would — constantly.] But they have been attacking her for a quarter century now. Bank on it, they will dredge up every single accusation they’ve thrown at her for a generation, now. Everything from murder to Travelgate to Whitewater to BENGHAZZZZIIII!!! to Emailgate.
The only saving grace she has going for her is the shambles of the coming snacilbupeR convention. I never thought I would be saying this but thank heaven for Drumpf and Crooz.
13@ Rhea: Unless we give the next president a Democratic Congress, there’s scant chance EITHER of them could get anything through. The snacilbupeR are already talking about putting off confirming the next SCOTUS nominee for the next 4 years — and they would add ANOTHER 4 to that if the Dem wins reelection. Of course, if they pull such a stunt, that might be their final undoing. We can hope, anyway.
14Unfortunately, there are some snacilbupeR creeps who will campaign as Dems, then once they’re elected will switch to their true colors of Snakes.
Don’t believe me? Ask Ben Nighthorse of Colorado.
15Ms Moon, thanks for your input. Clarification: I chose wall street as a prime example to illustrate a principle that applies to all other issues you raise, IMO. Like the candidates, how much detail can one go into on a given format and time frame? Principles, judgement, accountability, consistency over what period of time?
16I may have missed the inference to details in the debates of Clinton that were more expressed than Sanders but maybe I’m under a wrong impression of who has shifted their initial positions the most from the start of this campaign. If the way moneys are raised by all these candidates are equivalent, eg, then why is this an issue ala citizens united as well as Bernie vs Clinton?
What experience are you referring to; ie, good, bad, in between?
So, again, who really runs this country and, by extension, the world? I submit the corporate nation, which is, IMO, its own country. And who has benefitted the most from this entity?
For my basic understanding of who’s on first, I refer to Gen’l Smedley Butler, 2 times recipient of Medal of Honor, the Marine Brevet Medal given to only 27, who wrote a treatise “War is a Racket” on how he felt he was a gangster enforcer for the corporate world in over a dozen actions from the Spanish-Am war to the China incursions of the ‘20s. See, Wiki and other links therein.
What he talks about actually started with the next year at Jamestown up to today. I as far as I can tell, all of our armed conflicts have been at the behest/benefit of the corporate entities.
By the way, he also stopped an actual movement by the 1% of the ‘30s to overthrown FDR and establish a fascist gov’t because it was fashionable in that day as it got the “trains running on time.”
Primo, am I interpreting your remark about losing a race, contest, etc, that I’m somehow unhappy that my guy ain’t apparently doing so well? I can see how that can be inferred since we really don’t know each other that well.
17Permit me to be more clear. My point is the systemic process exemplified presently by Sanders and Clinton on the Dem side and all those whatsisnames on the other. My thinking and intent is beyond specific, limiting personalities. How to diagnose and arrive at the core problem driving the whole package which includes the entire world? Can this be done in bits and pieces? Or is it going to take something more drastic; ie, some sort of revolution peaceful or otherwise? Or some combination of whatever?
Then the hard part; solution.
I thank all the commentators on this site for good input and exchange of ideas.
Van No interpretation needed. It was commiseration, nothing more.
18I like Sanders’ principles, but I’m beginning to dislike his actions. He is giving the Repubs sound bites that attack Clinton’s character and her qualifications. He is forcing the Clinton campaign to expend huge amounts of time and money fighting him when it seems the nomination has essentially been wrapped up by Clinton and the time has come to fight the Repubs.
Sanders has said he does not want to be a spoiler. That’s a principle I would like to see in action real soon.
In politics principles count, but so does winning since the victor sets the principles.
19The purpose of the Super-Delegates is to avoid a repetition of 1972, when McGovern was selected “by popular demand” of the youngsters in the party who sought instant gratification through revolution. This was NOT a democratic principle, nor is it Democratic behavior.
Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton are giving the repubs a lesson in diplomacy. statecraft, social discourse, statesmanship and researched political positions.
Sanders would do well to consider being the new Majority Leader in the Senate. We will need someone with cojones to stake-out the left-flank of President Clinton. Senator Shumer or Stabenow will handle the right with energetic aplomb rater than the bemused ennui we’ve seen lately from the Senate under missymcconnell.
20Personally, I have lost interest in this pre-season warm up…I cast my primary vote for Bernie, but in November, I will just vote Blue all the way down the ticket. Period.
21I like a lot of what Sanders has to say about issues, but he has gone off the rails in the heat of battle. The one thing I would love to see come out of the primary is pushing the Democratic party a little more to the left. HRC is a centrist, I would like to see her go a little to the left.
Bernie has run a great campaign until the last couple of weeks. He now looks like a grumpy old man who didn’t get the last piece of pie.
But whoever wins the Democratic primary will get my vote. I want government out of my uterus and the bathroom.
22@PKM
It isn’t aidin’ an’ abettin’ if disinformation was yore plan all along.
23