Artificial Unintelligence
Once upon a time, I used to teach a course on data structures and algorithmic analysis at Elmhurst College, where I had earlier completed my bachelors. My teaching technique relied heavily on game theory, as it was more fun to teach and learn and the concept of games is very accessible to students. At the root of most game theory is the concept of an intelligent, rational decision maker, who was proceeding to a goal state (winning) according to a common set of parameters (rules). Decisions are rendered based on the game state at the time and are are chosen based on heuristics (strategies) that try to measure the game state, anticipate the moves of competitors, encompass possible positive and negative outcomes, and choose between them.
The “anticipating the moves of competitors” part is a tricky bit, but the general rule of thumb is to anticipate that the opponent is also an intelligent, rational decision maker. If they are not – if they make stupid moves – then your continual heuristic re-assessment of the game state provides you with swifter, surer paths to the goal state: swifter in that it would take fewer turns to win; surer in that random elements of game play would be less likely to hurt you.
All that seemed too easy, so I went into politics.
At first blush, it would seem that the “intelligent, rational decision maker” aspect was the first thing I jettisoned. “Individuals are smart, but people are dumb,” is one of the mainstays of the political – or any – con game. The decision makers in elections seem to be the least rational, most difficult actors to anticipate in any game you’ve ever seen.
But they are not the players. They are the dice. Their votes are the events that happen within a range of predictable frequencies, whose aggregate effects are to reward the strategies of one player or the other by moving them closer to the goal state.
The players are the campaigns. These players operate within a set of rules and a common understanding of the transactional nature of the various stratagems they may employ. Good strategies like Obama’s in ’08 are rewarded for things like choosing Joe Biden as a running mate. Poor strategies like McCain’s are punished for dumb moves like Palin. But even that poor strategy came out of an intelligent rational decision maker who simply misread the state of play and ignored the risk of an unvetted choice in order to gain a reward (more women voters, a surer Right flank) that simply wasn’t fully realized.
But now comes Trump.
Trump isn’t simply an irrational, unintelligent decision maker. He also has no concept of the rules, no understanding of the board, no inkling of the decision-making capability of the opponent and no knowledge of how the dice actually operate. It’s as if he’s playing chess according to misunderstanding the rules of Hollywood Squares – as long as Donald is the center of the board, he wins.
Not on MY watch, Bubi.
This blew everybody’s mind in the primary – mine included – because the dice were continually in his favor. In fact, what’s gone wrong is that years of crooked rule-bending, board-tilting and dice-shaving by Republicans backfired on them in a game with 17 players, none of whom could correctly assess the state of play and all of whom assumed that the Republican voters were the rational ones.
So what to do with an irrational unintelligent decision maker playing the wrong rules on the wrong board?
Well, games theory tells us to continue making rational, intelligent decisions based on accurate assessments of the game state and rules and to make Donald pay for his mistakes.
Because allowing him to win this game and move on to the next one is the ultimate loss for everyone.
The only winning move is not to play
I loved that movie, War Games.
Humans being humans, why play say Gin Rummy, when you can go right to the big boy game, Global Thermonuclear Warfare? Go big or go home eh?
1This is a game change for the snacilbupeR. Historically they elect idiots, then expect a Democratic president to clean up after them, so they can rinse and repeat their mistakes. With Donnie Drumpf, they went way out over their skis. Now, 16 failed candidates later, Donnie scares the snacilbupeR. Their ultimate hubris is acting like the rest of us should fix this for them, before Donnie blows them up.
Lyin’ Ryan, Mitch and a few others along with the donor class need to pay a price for this.
2With this paragraph:
“The “anticipating the moves of competitors” part is a tricky bit, but the general rule of thumb is to anticipate that the opponent is also an intelligent, rational decision maker. If they are not – if they make stupid moves – then your continual heuristic re-assessment of the game state provides you with swifter, surer paths to the goal state: swifter in that it would take fewer turns to win; surer in that random elements of game play would be less likely to hurt you.”
I thought for sure you were describing playing the game of Mah Jongg … a game I play every Tuesday afternoon — without fail — and I love it! Some losers whine and snivel, others shrug their shoulders and get on with the next game. The winners sometimes do a high 5 and a whoop-whoop, and then settle down for the next game! It is a game that relies on strategy and offensive and defensive play and if you don’t “get” the rules and regs of how the game is played, you simple do NOT “get” it and you do not become a player!!
Those of us “old ladies” who do play the game and “get” it are, for the most part, reasonably intelligent … I don’t think Donald the Drumpf would “get” it! LOL He’d be a YUUUGGEE loser!! Tee Hee Hee!! And some of these old gals are as cut-throat as The Donald is!!!
3In a similar vein, this piece from our friends down under.
4Quoting Professor Frankfurt
“The liar is inescapably concerned with truth-values. In order to invent a lie at all, he must think he knows what is true. And in order to invent an effective lie, he must design his falsehood under the guidance of that truth. On the other hand, a person who undertakes to bullshit his way through has much more freedom. His focus is panoramic rather than particular. He does not limit himself to inserting a certain falsehood at a specific point, and thus he is not constrained by the truths surrounding that point or intersecting it. He is prepared to fake the context as well, so far as need requires. This freedom from the constraints to which the liar must submit does not necessarily mean, of course, that his task is easier than the task of the liar. But the mode of creativity upon which it relies is less analytical and less deliberative than that which is mobilized in lying. It is more expansive and independent, with mare spacious opportunities for improvisation, color, and imaginative play. This is less a matter of craft than of art. Hence the familiar notion of the ‘bullshit artist.'”
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/06/03/Calling-BS-on-Donald-Trump.aspx
Trump isn’t only running for president, he’s mainly playing the “No Such Thing As Bad Publicity” Game.
5He wins, he wins.
He loses, he still wins, because he gets 45% of America to support him, and by transference his hotels, TV shows, etc.
I’ve seen in several articles that DontheCon’s hotel business is down 60%. It will be interesting to see him go bankrupt when this is over in November.
Hopefully, NY AG Schneiderman will have him indicted for fraud by then as well.
I will not shed a tear for this orange freak – he is a simple-minded bully suffering from ‘affluenza’ and has nothing but insults to everyone who does not bow to his BS.
6Artificial Intelligence is never as good as the real thing, but it’s usually better than real stupidity. I can write software smarter than the GOP voters. Unfortunately, that’s not saying much.
I think what we have here is a failure to communicate but a great success at miscommunication.
7Great analysis of Drumpf’s mental state: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-north-patterson/too-sick-to-lead-the-leth_b_10086768.html
I usually avoid HuffPo, but this is well worth reading.
8The game is called malignant narcissism. Everybody has some degree of narcissism but in general there are boundaries and filters and civilization manages to limp along. Please pay attention to “malignant”. A malignant narcissist functions at the level of a rabid warthog. What he is incapable of understanding is that malignant turns into malignancy and kills him.
Post script here. Game theory as a legit subject to be covered in a class room went down with a huge thud among the more traditional rationalists I knew. Games were meant for children and children do not end up running the world. Sticking to physics and such is more the stuff for adults. As you can see, there was a definite suspicion that a con was afoot.
9Zyxomma and Maggie have hit upon the crux. Richard North Patterson’s excellent article explores the theory that Drumpf has a narcissistic personality disorder and is a “mentally disordered demagogue bereft of principles and starved for adulation”. Trump plays by his own rules and changes them quite frequently.
10He further postulates that “…By pretending that trump is fit to be President, the Republican Party is beyond redemption.. and the media has 5 months left to redeem itself’ for allowing Trump to get away with this pretense.”
His article is well worth reading.
I’m reminded of Terry Pratchett’s description of human nature: that if, deep in a cave in a howling wilderness, you put a button with a sign that said, “End of the World Button– Do Not Touch,” the paint wouldn’t even have time to dry. Hence people voting for Trump.
Same principle: putting a nice fruit tree in the middle of a garden and saying, “Eat whatever you want, but not off THAT tree.” Talk about not having a clue about human nature….
11Yes, Scumpf is nucking futz. The “malignant descriptor is especially apt.
12I posted this link already, but I think it bears repeating in this context. Clinton anticipated Trump’s denial that he said the things she quoted. She pre-responded entirely rationally: https://www.hillaryclinton.com/briefing/updates/2016/06/02/trump-literally-said-all-those-things/
13We were warned: the minute that Trump declared himself “The Donald” we should have known that his penchant for showmanship (which included the arm-candy) was not trustworthy.
14Excellent piece! I was so thrilled when Hillary tore Trump a new one. About time.
15If only one could teach courses (golf) not to admit Drumpfulthinskin. I believe there are enough bogeys to go around.
16Good read, Zyxomma. 🙂
17@Primo – Where the Republican primary games were convoluted matrices, the general election matrix collapses essentially to the two-person zero sum game originally set forth by John von Neumann. The state of play in the general election vastly favors the rational player over the actions of an irrational opponent. Thanks for your very insightful take. You should be teaming up with Nate Silver and Harry Enten.
18This is a great post. I’m glad Her Highness of the Hair Dryers has you posting here. Keep it coming.
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