The Election Goes Out Not With A Bang But With A WI/MI/PA. It Shouldn’t.
Words from Deb T.
Yes, I know you were disappointed but work with me for a moment.
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You won the presidency. I know Trump is yelling and rage tweeting but this is “sound and fury signifying nothing.” Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania and the votes coming in are going to go in his favor. They have just called Wisconsin and Michigan for him – you’ve got this and you got it with 3 million more votes than Trump did.
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I get it, it is an ugly win, but a win, is a win and it would not hurt you to take a victory mini lap. I get it that you were constitutionally predisposed to not do this but I want you to give it a try. Take a deep breath plaster a smile on your face and do your damn happy dance!
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Are you disappointed about Texas – of course you are. But you came really close and that is an awfully good thing! Not only that you made some serious gains in Wisconsin, Michigan, and you turned Arizona and Colorado BLUE!
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Are there things to be bummed about? For sure! You didn’t recognize that the Latino community is one giant monolith. You blew it on Senate races and you lost a few in the House. But there are two more Senate races that are still in play and you need to focus on those! Not only that you didn’t lose the House and did I mention that you won the Presidency. So buck up buttercup!
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Not that anybody is asking me, but if they were here is what I tell you:
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* Start acting like winners, nobody likes a loser. Moping around with your tail between your legs, like you’re a whipped puppy, isn’t going to get you any more votes! It sure isn’t going to win you those two Senate seats that are still in play and that you need to be focusing on.
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* Pick up the phone and do a conference call with Stacey Abrams, Ben Wikler & Beto O’Rourke, and listen to them for a change! They moved that needle and you might just learn something from them.
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* Get on the phone with people who honestly understand rural voters! Jane Fleming Kleeb is a member of your party, why isn’t she on speed dial?
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* While I am at it you might want to have a chat with Senator Sherwood Brown and Connie Schultz about Ohio. They understand Ohio, they win in Ohio, if you asked nicely they might explain the ins and outs of how that works.
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* You’ve got serious work to do with the Latino community and you just might want to reach out to people who actually knows something about it. You know people who aren’t in a political box someone like Maria Hinojsa or Laloalcaraz who would probably be willing to explain say the differences between Latino communities and how the Mexican experience differs from the Puerto Rican or Cuban or Bolivian experience – because it’s not the same.
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* Speaking of groups you need to talk to, you darn well better reach out to the Black community because they have done more of the heavy lifting to improve this democracy than any other group.
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I know, that’s a lot, and it isn’t like anybody at the vaunted DCC is actually paying any attention to what I say, still hope springs eternal.
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Finally, you have won the Presidency, Joe Biden has racked up more votes than any candidate in history. We flipped Arizona Michigan Wisconsin and Nebraska to BLUE. I think we’re going to flip Pennsylvania and quite probably Georgia. We beat an incumbent president, that NEVER HAPPENS. We just elected the first black woman vice president. I think maybe we’re allowed to savor it for a few days. So, put on your big boy and big girl panties, do your best happy dance and celebrate for a day or two. No whimpering, it’s time to celebrate, because I’ve got news for you, ain’t nobody voting for Eeyore, it is Tigger for the win!
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I’m very proud to make Arizona Blue.
1Deb T. –
2Yes!
When Nevada is called & Joe hits 270, I’ll be happy.
Biden has at the moment what he described in a previous campaign as Joe-mentum.
Bring it on home Joe, bring it on home.
Apologies gals & guys, but NV will be postponing announcing any further election results, waiting now until the count is complete. Hopefully that will be early in the morning.
3Deb T- you are so right and thank you! We must celebrate a Biden/Harris win in the most contentious political environment in our memory. That includes the late 60’s when I was in college. On top of that, the coronavirus mask wearing and precautions (or not) was so divisive, led by the president we are hopefully beating. There’s just no comparison in our lifetime. So if Biden wins by whatever margin and Trumpf finally calls uncle, we need to celebrate and move forward. Moving forward means getting serious about how the Democratic Party gets even more inclusive. Many mistakes were made, and knowing those requires admitting to them. I’m still hopeful.
4I believe it is only one district in Nebraska that may have turned blue and that was a maybe the last time I checked. Most of Nebraska went red.
5Otherwise, thank you for the cheering words and good advice.
Everything Deb T says here is important and right, and sets out a political agenda for us, I hope starting now, and continuing through the elections in off years, in 2022, and of course 2024.
6I think it’s also important to start making a strong case for good governance and for communicating how it works. Trump and his cronies and his enablers in the GoP not only shredded numerous parts of the federal departments and agencies that we rely on for this country to function as a whole. They also shredded a lot of the trust in those parts of government – even in people like Tony Fauci, at least in some quarters. I’d like to see a plan to restore their function, their public face, and their credibility.
I’m not seeing anyone calling PA blue? What sites y’all lookin at?
7AP “States still in play and what makes them that way” explains the nuts and bolts. Bottom line is:
* GEORGIA: Outstanding ballots left to be counted [are] in counties where Biden has performed well.
* NEVADA: Too early to call [but] Trump narrowly lost Nevada in 2016 as the state has trended toward the Democrats in the past decade.
* NORTH CAROLINA: Race too early to call. Ballots left to count. …up to 116,000 mail ballots left to count, as well as the potential of thousands of provisional ballots.
As long as those ballots are postmarked by Nov. 3, state election officials have until Nov. 12 to count them. And when it comes to mail ballots, Biden was outperforming Trump. That means the ballots yet to be counted could give Biden a lead.
* PENNSYLVANIA: More than 1 million votes left to be counted. A final vote total may not be clear for days because the use of mail in ballots…. under state law, elections officials are not allowed to process mail-in ballots until Election Day, and most of those are expected to go to Biden. Trump voters preferred to vote in person after Trump spent months claiming without proof that voting by mail would lead to widespread voter fraud.
https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-states-still-in-play-56dbf7c0c4c155facf7920f0a3099509
8Deb T
9Sounds good and I hope you’re right. Not sure about Pennsylvania but I hear the Biden folks think we’ll take it.
And in other news, the same federal judge whose order for the USPS to sweep for leftover ballots was ignored has issued a new order for them to sweep.
In Texas.
According to MSNBC as of about 20 minutes ago.
I won’t sing with the Munchkins until I see his legs sticking out from under Dorothy’s house.
10Did you mean the Latino Community isn’t a giant monolith? And I’m not depressed because Joe didn’t win. Joe won. I’m not depressed I’m terrified that it will still be stolen. Did you see about the Giant number of votes stuck in the post office in Florida? I’m trying I really am, but I’m old and tired. Right now the best I can do is try not to bring anybody else down. I hope I’m not doing that to anybody here. And I appreciate your words of good cheer and they are all true.
11People at the places I hang out are still saying if Trump loses. I’m sorry but that terrifies me.
12Yall remember in 2000, 2001 when the Chicom J-8 flew into the Navy EP-3? The Chicom pilot died and the EP-3 had to land on Hainan Island.
I asked one of my young nephews, who at the time flew for the USN also. He told me that, after de-brief, when that crew got their replacement EP-3 it would have a little Chinese flag stuck to the side of the fuselage below the pilot’s windows, because “a kill is a kill”.
An ugly win is a win. January 20th, 2021 cannot come soon enough.
13Alert!
AZ was just called for Biden by the local tv stations here. YIPPEE!!
14Yay, slipstream. I’ll sing along with you when those tiny feet in are sticking out.
15Deb, I am going to not believe a single thing you say because you said that in Texas we came “really close.”
No, we didn’t. Trump won Texas by 6 points. We lost pretty much every state-wide race. We didn’t come “really close.”
You are a fool if you think otherwise.
16Mark, yeah, Trump by 6 is still not pretty, but in 2016 it was Trump by 9, so we cut that by a third. McCain beat Obama by 12 in 2008, and Romney beat him by 6 in 2012. So we’re moving slow, but we’re moving. We can’t just look at the final numbers right now; we need to watch where the needle is. (I think Trump by 6 in his second term is pretty darned weak.)
I agree with JJ and Deb, though: We need to mop up the DCC and talk to people who know how to win. They’re out there.
17Bless your heart Mark, I am a numbers gal. Biden got 46.4% in this election. In 2000, the D’s got 38%, in 2008 the D’s got 43%, in 2012 the D’s got 41.4%, in in 2016 the D’s got 43% . It has admittedly been a few years since I had a math class but if memory serves 46.3 is better yes?
FWIW, Trump’s margin over Biden in Texas was the 2nd closest race for the White House in two decades.
Harris County alone hit 65%+ voter turnout. I find it stunning that Harris County with 1.5 million votes, cast more votes than 11 other states populations!
I think Democrats worked their butts off, I think Beto did everything but personally drive everyone to the polls, I know what Susan, Don, Glenn and Gilbert, and a host of other Texans did in the midst of a pandemic with a crooked Governor and a lunatic GOP throwing everything in their arsenal at them to suppress the vote and disenfranchise every person of color in the state. I think they did a Hell of job.
So no I’m not feeling foolish.
18Vic, yes and thank you for pointing that out! My typing skills are less than stellar so I can’t just blame it on fat fingers and a tiny keyboard! The Latino vote is not monolithic Well Latino voters do, as a whole, tend to be more democratic than Republican, a trend that has accelerated in recent years, they do not vote as a single block. And how Latinos vote in Florida, for instance can be very different from how Latinos in the south west or the north east boat. The Cuban American experience is vastly different from the Mexican American experience or the Puerto Rican experience.
The size and diversity of a Latino group makes it even more difficult for any candidate even a Democrat to take Latino voters for granted. Part of that I think comes down to how long Latino voters have lived in the US and also to their specific place of origin. I need to look at the demographics on the other side of this election but but foreign born Latinos & US born kids of Latinos tend to be more Democratic than say 3rd Generation Latinos. Assimilation is a thing.
Latinos also tend to ID with their specific nationality 1st and Latino 2nd. And the Hispanic experience is really different based on where you come from. Without getting too wonky let me use Cubans as an example. They make up about 4% of all Latinos but they are 29% of the Hispanic population in Florida and they VOTE. Putting aside the fact that some of the older folks still blame Kennedy for the Bay of Pigs the young pups don’t but they all have issues with Castro and Venezuela’s Maduro. And that “socialist” label Trump stuck on Biden may be malarkey but it stuck, probably because 20% of Trump’s Ads in Florida made it a point to pound that home.
Bottom line, if you want people’s vote you have to ask for it, we didn’t do enough listening or asking.
Sorry, this took so long!
19Lynn and Slipstream, Let’s hear it for the Munchkins!
I continue to be incensed by the electoral college, an institution designed by a bunch of wealthy, white, landholders over 200 years ago, with the knowledge that there is no U in it. They were good with that and with ensuring that states with a small population would have an outsized impact on the process. But I digress I’m just happy that it looks like we actually won the popular vote but this time we won it in the right precincts.
20Thanks, Deb, for all of this, which is 100% right. When I realized that we’re likely to put Joe and Kamala in, I cried for joy. What a thing, at last to get a woman, and a woman of color, into one of the 2 top jobs, along with a man who is also a competent, patriotic D.
I saw a tweet from Stuart Stevens, telling us to be happy about what we’re achieving: beating an incumbent who is using all the powers of the state and using them corruptly.
@Mark
21Disagree with Deb all you like. Calling you a fool for your discourtesy would be rude and foolish, so I won’t do it.
Update: The battleground that’s shifted the most against Trump from ’16 to ’20 so far (8.7%)?
Nebraska’s 2nd District, that’s Jane Kleeb’s stomping ground.
22Not thinking happy thoughts. I remember 2016 when the Dems won, until the criminals in the electoral college changed ‘merica into a nation of PUBLIC hate, bigotry, intolerance, violence!!! Will see what happens and try learning Swedish!
23My fingers are crossed so get ready for typos. Re: the Cubans et al from the Caribbean and the top of South America Latinos. Allegedly they see socialism everywhere and are repelled by it. Hence they would vote for Lucifer his own self which they obviously did. Question for these people: once you are an American and working, a part of your pay goes toward Social Security and that sort of thing. If you are so damn afraid of socialism, do your level best to cut yourself out of Social Security et al. You are way too late with your jive. We are all children of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Here was one rich guy who was actually shocked out of his socks when he found out how the other half lived and truly wanted to do something about it. His peers in the 1% hated him for that. Those wusses always believed that once they had theirs, everyone else can go to hell. As for me, I always thought caring for the other guy, especially those who were hungry, thirsty, freezing, chronically ill and even homeless is a major sign of Christianity.
24Deb, a republican trouble maker hacked your post and changed Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown’s name to “Sherwood.”
25While I appreciate the bucking up, Deb, the fat lady hasn’t sung yet.
26Thank you for your effort to inch Texas towards turning blue, you did a good job. & the pep talk helps with the nail biting . Could we turn now to getting Mc turtle impeached? We know he is a cheat, thief & a creep. lets dig up the dirt.
27stop counting if i’m ahead, keep counting if i,m behind ,,,
28Caren @27, as you say there’s dirt on Moscow Mitch. Most of it is already in the public domain. Trick is having that dirt carried to a court where Mitch can and will be prosecuted.
“Blago” (D-IL) governor was prosecuted. There are other examples of Democrats who have been prosecuted. Can anyone think of an example of Republicons prosecuting a fellow ‘Con? The Outlaw Jersey Whale was ripe for prosecution.
29Yes it’s wonderful to have Trump gone but under a GOP Senate we’ll have 4 years of no new judicial vacancies filled and
30a Senate that won’t pass major legislation to help the nation recover – McConnell doesn’t give a shit.
Sam in Superior –
There are Senate races in 2022.
12 Dems up for re-election
24 Republicans up for re-election
I like those odds.
31Same odds as this year. How’d that work out for you?
32Senate battle is tied at 48-48, if we count Senators King and Sanders the two Indies who are simpatico with the Ds.
Where the missing two are is GA and NC. Abandon ye not all hope. We can live with a VP Harris breaking ties way better than the Vice Poodle.
33Sorry, 22 Republican Senate seats up for re-election in 2022:
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2022
Harry Eagar-
34Same odds yes, but different states. The odds are better than if there were more Dem than Republican seats at risk!
Ballots being counted in NV are beginning to show on AP with Biden/Harris increasing their lead. It has been reported that Clark Co (Las Vegas) +D is about to upload a count.
Yes, we may have an elected President by noon. Obviously Biden because Donnie rates only as pResident and has never been elected.
35Amen Maggie!
Wyatt, I get that autocorrect is struggling with Sherrod, but how does it get Sherwood out of that? Perhaps it can’t see the trees from the forest? I’m sure if I gave it some effort I could determine how to turn the darn thing off but so far it’s a no go. Sherrod and his wife Connie are two of the best people on the planet, they give me hope on a regular basis, even if Connie has to regularly remind me to breathe.
Jane & PKM are right GA and NC! For those of you in those 2 states GOD BLESS you, look for your airwaves and mailboxes to be clogged! But yes there is still hope and we are better off with Biden and Harris in the WH.
Jere – no, the fat lady hasn’t sung, but I am doing my vocal warm ups. Here’s the thing an old boss of mine once told me that when it comes to a whole bunch of things, perception is reality. You know what Republicans are good at? Pretending they’ve got all the marbles, Pretending it is Morning in America
when really it is midnight, they pretend so well that even people who should know better put on blinders so they can’t see. Trump is ACTING like this is being stolen from him, he is in the midst of a performance art piece that features him as the winner crusading against the “deep state,” we can not let that narrative carry the day!
We need to let people see that we won. We need to show we not only believe in the process but we believe in the victory. Perception is at the heart of reality TV, what are you seeing on TV? Act like winners, your country needs to see you. Besides as Granny said, don’t borrow trouble unless it’s good trouble. Now go be the change you wish to see in the world. My brownies are coming out of the oven and headed to the election board. I’m certain I’ll run into some TV types on the way & they’ll ask what I’m up to, I’ll tell them it is a thank you to my hard working neighbors who fairly and honestly counted the vote. I’ll remind them that there are Democrats and Republicans in the room when that happens. I’ll probably try to find a way to mention that Trump looks really tired and like he needs his rest. Sad, the job has taken such a tole…
36Yes, Sherrod and his talented,Award winning wife are the only bright spot in Ohio Politics.
We are ashamed of Gym Jordan, but the shocker here is Larry 61 million dollar indicted Householder was just re- elected to the State House.
Texas has nothing on Ohio for crooked Politicians and those who still vote for them! That really moderate Kasich left behind the biggest Charter school scandal in Ohio History. Stripping millions from public education to give to his friends Charter Schools.
37Perdue just slipped below 50%, so looks like there will be TWO runoffs in Georgia.
correct numbers for 2022 Senate: there will be 34 seats up (assuming no others are vacated between now and then due to death, indictment, nomination to Cabinet post, etc.) 20 currently held by R’s, 13 by D’s, and the Warnock-Loeffler winner will be the other one
38The person I turn to you for information about Nevada is a guy by the name of Jon Ralston. Here’s what he has to say.
Washoe Only has a few thousand provisionals left it will be – a wash
There are only a few thousand world votes left, Biden will lose 2000 max there, probably less. That leaves Clark and tens of thousands of mail in and provisional ballots. John says there is little chance of the Democrats losing their so…
Biden is up by 11.4 thousand right now in Nevada.
Democrats are going to win these mail ballots coming in from election day and yesterday that’s a total of 63,000 and they should win them decisively. That leaves 60,000 provisionals, which app through this point have been evenly split. Ralston sees no path left for Trump.
39Well there’s little question in my mind about what Texas Progressives need to do next, and that’s Hispanic outreach. Zapata County in South Texas did a huge swing to Trump this time, as did some other counties with a large Hispanic population. I heard that big right wing media corporations are buying up border area radio stations and programming right wing talk radio in Spanish. Keep in mind that in 20 years, with the differential in birth rates we see now, Texas will be majority Hispanic. Hasta la Vista, baby!
40Deb @36, good source choice. Ralston is reliable, if not a bit Las Vegas centric. lol How dare he diss Washoe Co? We’re the only co keeping NV-2 from being dark ages dumb. NTW – will have some fun with Jon in via e-mail.
Jon also hasn’t done the numbers for the prostitution counties which, of course, are heavily Republicon. The election day vote in those counties was statistically way heavy R, indicating Donnie is done there, but there should be some Biden mail-in votes to be counted.
Counting has started again with a big boost to Biden who jumped 8,000 votes with 1%. Voting stopped last night at 75%, and is just now at 76%.
41Brad in Dallas @40,
Brad, quoting myself below [and as I have been ranting about for many years], the Texas Democrats have a serious Hispanic voter erosion problem that nobody seems to be doing anything about [TexMex]. The Valley used to vote 80-90+% Dem.
Every damned Democrat I read acts as if that voting bloc is a solid Democratic lock [and not just in TX], while year after year it slips away.
I’ve written many times about how the Rethugs are running an ‘under-the-radar’ Hispanic outreach/grab program, and the Dems don’t seem to see it or counter it.
The Rethugs were even running ‘trump truck trains’ in the Valley. JFC on a cracker!
RE: Zapata County going Rethug– [I used to live not far, and worked there semi-often]– Zapata over the years has attracted a lot of retirees [both snowbirds and TX ones, living on Falcon Lake], which with a base ~44% Hispanic Rethug vote would push it to red, imo.
https://juanitajean.com/election-night-2/#comments
“Something that really really sucks is to see how many 70-99% Hispanic pop [my old homeplaces] counties are voting ~40-47% Repuke. So much for all that Hispanic sucking up by Democrats. That number should be below 20%, 15% tops.
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/general-election-results/
[Whoever programmed that link should be electrocuted. The incredibly stupid, utterly useless lower ‘popup’ steals ~1/3 of the usable reading area. Even zooming down it’s a major pain in the ass. These cretinous ‘webpage designer’ scriptkiddies drive me effing nuts.] 17
Sandridge says:
42November 3, 2020 at 8:38 pm
Correction.
“are voting ~40-47% Repuke” should be 40-52%. Like Nueces County. 18″
Win NV would be great, but having a 270-268 EC vote will depend on every EC voter sticking to tradition. That’s a big if. Even when all the court cases are dismissed in Biden’s favor, Trumpf will not concede. I read a while back that Trumpf operatives were already working on plans to influence EC members to go rouge. It’s not a stretch to believe they would be voting for Trumpf. Then what??
43Steve from Beaverton says:
Then what??
Election officials in both Pennsylvania and Georgia announced they’ll report more vote totals today. The outstanding votes in both states heavily favor Biden, and election prognosticators say in the end both states will likely go to Biden.
If that’s the case, Trump would need dozens of rouge electoral collage voters.
44Rick, hope you are right! I’ve been stressing over this and feeling like I fell into the same wishful thinking trap I was in during the 2016 hrc loss. I remember in 2016 there was at least 1 out of W. WA that went rogue, and there’d be more this year.
45I expect Trumpf will try everything because he figures his legal troubles after the election will be too big for even his “top notch” lawyers (Giuliani??) to overcome.
My county in Texas turned blue in this race. Interesting fact: 40 years ago, when we moved here, this county WAS blue. Reliably blue. Democrats ran the county (county judge, county DA, county sheriff, etc, etc.) Some were of course more conservative Dems than I am, but they were Dems. This town was solidly FDR/LBJ blue, especially among the older inhabitants (40 years ago we, in our mid-30s, were the youngsters. How time flies…)
Then it grew rapidly, mostly with upper middle class white folks moving to new suburbs. Texas economic growth, esp in the tech stuff, led to many (MANY) imports from New York (IBM) and California, and a lot of those were Libertarians voting Republican or actual Republicans fleeing California’s “liberal” policies. We wuzz swamped. County offices went to Republicans. City offices in Round Rock and Georgetown went to Republicans. Sun City Georgetown was solidly Republican…except that Sun City retained an interest in “elder rights,” and eventually became less solid. Somewhat. I was told I couldn’t vote *twice* for errors made to my records by the GOP county offices.
So I’m celebrating our turn to blue and the people who worked to bring it, and *have been* working for years. Some of those people are now 40 years older and have seen the whole story.
It makes me mad when the media displays Texas as “traditionally GOP”…Not when I was a kid, it wasn’t. I was there when the Southern Strategy sucked up most of the conservative Dems and rebranded them, when the GOP ran their liberals and moderates out of GOPland on rails, and then the Dems *failed to welcome them* leaving themselves stranded until some more young’uns could grow up with more sense. I was there, as a young veteran coming out of the military, when the Dems eyed veterans with hostility or at least suspicion.
46