Was ANYBODY October Surprised?
Wow! It’s been a crazy couple of weeks. Trump has melted down in ways entirely predictable yet still awesome to witness. And he has done so on an international stage. No longer were his petulance, his childishness, his ignorance and his repugnant salaciousness merely the province of inside-baseball pundits and breathless online commenting update-mongers. Right there, in front of God and everyone, Donald J Trump showed his true colors.
Again, this is not a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. The surprise is in how many people haven’t been paying attention. But in the last two weeks from the first debate, the numbers have returned where they were in late August, and the race appears all but out of reach for the Trump campaign.
As we know, early voting has been underway in some states for the past several weeks, and more are being added to that total all the time. So votes are being banked in advance of Election Day for both candidates, but they are being banked while the SS Trumptanic is well down in the polls, and sinking fast.
GOTV stands for “Get Out the Vote,” the end-game for all elections. Every voter you’re reached out to, every regular voter for your party, anyone you’ve identified as a supporter is now your responsibility to get to vote. Every one you are able to convince to vote ahead of time is one less name you have to worry about on Election Day proper. All of this takes an outstanding data operation, and a dedicated and motivated group of volunteers to execute the plays that the data calls for.
Trump has neither of these things. He had depended on the rank and file of the Republican Party, starting at the top with the RNC, to carry out a function that he never thought was all that critical – the fabled “ground game.” In politics, voter identification, persuasion and GOTV are the ground game, while messaging, especially through media, is called the “air game.” Trump’s understanding of the mechanics of campaigning is limited to the air game and personal appearances, exactly the way he has conducted his whole life of adolescent attention-seeking cum adoration-mongering. Actual work is something you contract out and sometimes pay for.
And this is why he is done, because the actual work of winning a campaign occurs by getting people who are for you at home, to get dressed, get in the car, drive to someplace they only go to once every 4 years, if that, maybe stand in line, and finally vote. Or to fill out a bunch of forms to receive and return a mail-in ballot.
But Trump has outsourced that to the national, state, and county organizations of the Republican Party. Saturday, it was reported, the RNC suspended a huge mailing operation on behalf of Trump, the “Victory Project.” And precinct-level volunteers who were doing this long before he raised his orange coif and will be doing it long after it sinks back into tabloid oblivion will also sit on their hands rather than lift a finger to help him. In 2004, I witnessed suburban Republican women, the mainstay of their local Party, walk out of a speech by Obama’s Senate opponent, Alan Keyes, when he started in on his misogynistic abortion rant.
How fast do you think they are heading for the exits, now?
As the AP has just reported – Speaker Paul Ryan is basically telling them to do so. It’s everyone for himself; the lifeboats are on the davits, dangling: Senators and Congressfolk first, if you please.
In the end, this will make exact Electoral College vote totals difficult to predict. Hillary will win the states she’s expected to, as we discussed in May. Several toss-ups will end up in her column thanks to the disparity in GOTV. It’s hard to predict how regular GOP voters may split their vote between now and Election Day because, from what we hear, THERE ARE WORSE TAPES OUT THERE for Donald Trump.
Is there anyone left who would be surprised?
Can some one play Taps, for Drumpf.
1The only solution is for EVERY Democrat (and thinking Republican) to go to the polls and vote!
2No surprise here, Primo. Jane and I accepted Donnie’s opening metaphor, when he took that down escalator to announce his candidacy.
3The biggest threat at this point is that when Hillary is so far ahead in the polls that too many Democratic voters will not bother to go vote thinking it doesn’t matter.
In any just world Trump would not be able to win a single state.
But down-ballot votes are going to be even more important than they usually are so the focus should be on that now.
4As someone said online, most elections have an October surprise, but this one is a whole Advent calendar. (For those who don’t know, that’s a little surprise every day leading up to Christmas.)
5given all this, what do we say about the state of Texas, which Trump will almost certainly still win?
6OT: Can someone enlighten me about what was so horrid in Hillz speeches? The parts that talking heads bring up sound like her opinions or observations not her policies.
One item, “open borders” were a popular concept when she mentioned them and conceptually it’s a good idea, but thrown up against present realities they may not work. She would probably talk differently today.
So I’m not getting this big ado over a speech.
7Polite Kool Marxist,
T-team’s new campaign theme song (spontaneous combustion, baybee):
Ring of Fire:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_of_Fire_(song)
“I fell into a burning ring of fire
I went down, down, down, and the flames climbed higher
And it burned, burned, burned the ring of fire
The ring of fire”
Read more: Dwight Yoakam – Ring Of Fire Lyrics | MetroLyrics
Or:
8“It Ain’t (Trump) Babe”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_Ain%27t_Me_Babe
Worse Trump tapes out there? If we stay up late and watch cable TV I hope we’re offered:
Jacka$$ Trump
9Girls Gone Wild, On Trump (they’re feminists so not in the way you might think)
Bum Fights (Trump negotiating with colleagues and associates)
Rastybob,
10Play Taps for this traitorous sonuvabeech?
Another effen Chickenhawk who never served (or has supported), as his spawn haven’t either?
Bu-uullchit!
Rogue’s March for THIS guy.
11JAKvirginia, I can’t wait for the next shoe to drop off this millipede either. Allegedly, some of the rest of these revelations are videos!!!! I’m glad my grandkids aren’t watching him on TV. He’s porn!
12There’s a $5mill fee for breaking a non-disclosure aggrement with The Apprentice. David Brock has said he will pay it. I hope someone does, although I can be pretty sure I won’t willingly listen to it.
13Don’t have to.
I suggest “The Colonel Bogey March” from “Bridge on the River Kwai”. Chump’s a bogey if I ever saw one.
14With apologies to Mama and the original Col. Bogey lyricist:
Ryan has only got one ball,
Mike Pence has two but very small,
McConnell’s like the Donald,
And the Donald has no balls at all.
Not since Clinton kicked them up his butt.
15GOTV Check-In — Florida here:
Mail-in ballots were sent out last week [mine arrived Friday.]
It’s not too late to order one. So long as you’re registered, you’ve got till 5 PM on November 1st to ask for your very own.
And Floridians, please be sure and VOTE NO ON AMENDMENT 1!
16Anyone out there artistic? We need a cartoon of the ship of GOP crashing into an iceberg with an orange coif.
17Loved your lyrics, Rhea. They fit the tune so well.
18More Clinton/Kaine yard signs popping up in my neighborhood. It has traditionally been blue collar. There are some small developments of what we call McMansions and their lawns are signless! More and more the R’s are a house divided which means they can’t stand each other. Its amazing that a candidate came along who was able to do that! MSNBC had a few minutes of video on a Trump gathering in North Carolina. Only about a half dozen on the video but they absolutely refuse to understand that their hero would never allow them into one of his fancy golf courses or his hotels! The support for him is equivalent to “kick me in the kidneys again,sir, please it feels so good!”
19Oh, and to those of you who get mail-in ballots — let’s be careful out there:
I have WAY too many liberal-looking bumper stickers on my car [which I have to park out front] including the real giveaway: “Go Hillary ~ 2016!”
So, when I finish filling out my ballot, I plan to drive it to the nearest post box. MOST of the people around here are blue – but I’m not taking any chances that there aren’t some out there who think those stinkin’ Federal laws don’t apply to them.
After all, someone did steal my air-chair off my font porch that time. And my ballot is more important than any chair.
So be careful. Take that extra step. Post it from a public mailbox – or drive it in. Just a thought.
20You have to give it to Cruez for his bad timing, oh, if he only held out for another week!
21i got a call at crack of dawn: “Does Mama have to go to the tax office to register to vote?” Since I hadn’t had any coffee yet, I said let me call you in five minutes. Then I got another call: “Not to worry. Mama already went to the tax office.” Since I was stilling swilling coffee, I just said “That’s most direct.”
22Now I have a question. I know today is last day to vote. I know if I register someone with a yellow card, I have to hand-deliver a yellow card. Now, if they use a white mail in card, is it too late to register using a mail in card? (This is Texas.)
I also meant last day to register.
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