Matthew is a Jerk
Okay, folks in the path of Matthew, please check in.
Admission: one of my favorite places on earth is the coast and the barrier islands off the Carolina’s coast. From Tybee Island to Okrakoke to Kitty Hawk, I love those islands. I love seafood in Morehead City. I love taking the boat to Shackleford Island to see the horses and the amazing seashells. There’s a coffee shop on the square in New Bern in an old building that welcomes your body and your soul.
I have friends in Florida that I’m fretting about.
So, check in. Be safe and get the hell outta Dodge, my friends.
Next time you’re in Carolina, take time to come put your feet up in the mountains in the western part of the state. We’ve got a vibrant Democratic Party in our county and you’d feel right at home!
1Now’s the time for all that hot air in TX to be put to good use. Get Abbott, Paxton, and all the other R pols down to Galveston, face them east and get them talking. That should push Mathew out to sea.
Being less snarky, I’ve been through two hurricanes in FL. This is not fun. Put all your best and hopeful thoughts out there for those people. The aftermath is usually more terrible than the storm. The coming days will not be pretty.
2Oh, I have spent wondrous days in Bryson City, Opinionated Hussy. My Bubba loves him some Smokey Mountains.
3My youngest is a 911 dispatcher in Cumberland County, NC (Fayettenam). During the recent flooding in Fayetteville and Spring Lake things were more than hectic at the call center. Though they are not right on the coast he is expecting the hit from Matthew to be more of the same.
4Volusia County, Florida, 21 miles inland. Still here so far.
5East Orange County, Orlando area, Florida, but have packed the dogs and off to my daughter who lives much further inland. No joke this storm. Not interested in ‘riding it out’ in an area likely to be threatened. Stay safe everyone.
6Squalls begin 8:PM with tropical storm force winds of 60+mph, wind speeds of hurricane force arrive at 2:AM Friday through 8:PM Friday. The seniors on our block are all over 85, so we’re here to monitor. Relocating them – along with walkers, motorized chairs, clothes, food and meds – was impractical, so we are here with them. We aren’t in an evac zone, but are on the current line of the eye. Big wind, the outer edges & rain will begin about 2:PM [Eastern]. It’s a great job we have to do.
7JAKvirginia, snacilbupeR politicians also suck and ‘strategic planning’ is certainly their area of expertise. So, how about placing them in a leaky dinghy 200 miles off the coast to suck away the storm? Maybe they’ll send us a selfie of their success: “here it comes. Oh ____!”
8Hurricane Matthew is a MONSTER. It is going to ripsaw clear up most of the Florida coast and beyond.
And thhennn (see below**).
Matthew will likely remain a Cat 4 or even a Cat 5 as it traverses much of Florida.
Matthew’s path will track in such a manner, parallel to the coast, that just a slight wobbling of the path can result in exponential changes in the storm effects on people and property!
That wobble can also affect the strength of this huge storm as it pulls heat energy, it’s fuel source, from the quite (overly?) warm waters under it.
Remember, a hurricane generates more power than dozens of nuclear reactors or bombs! Even a small storm. Matthew is a GIANT among cyclones!
** Matthew may then do a loop-de-loop and return from the Atlantic to cut Florida in half. It may then enter the (very warm water) Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify. What Matthew does then is anyone’s guess, but you can be pretty damn certain it won’t be good.
Matthew has the potential to be one of (or the most) destructive cyclones to ever hit the US. I strongly think it may be the most expen$ive in any case.
Disclaimer: I’m a weathernut (even with my own reporting weather station), I (and many others) have been following Matthew closely since it left the coast of Africa over a week ago. We knew it was going to be a very BFD even then.
Those of you in Matthew’s short to mid-term path had better be damned ready for the worst. Long term, Matthew could even wreak destruction on whatever is left of Florida, then AL, MS, LA, and Texas, or even Mexico or parts of the Caribbean next week.
Repeat: Matthew is in all likelihood going to be beyond almost anything before it. Sandy was big and wet, Andrew, Allen, et al., were strong, huge, or just bad asses.
Matthew is just ___****___ (no words…)
Good luck to all.
9Well, Matthew is indeed a storm, but back in 1989 I was living on James Island, on the road that ran along the bay that goes into the Ashley River. That was an epic hurricane. Took us 3 days before they could chain-saw any roads so we could get back to our house and we lived without power for over a month. Our house was untouched but 2 houses across the street were gone down to the concrete slabs. I’ve been in text touch with good friends of mine since yesterday who live on the water just behind Folly Beach. They were in Canada at their other house and they beat it back down to Charleston because her new car was sitting in the driveway down there. She got it parked in got it stored in a garage and they’ll wait out the storm at their house. It’s 15′ off the ground (it’s mandatory on all houses since Hugo), and they have hurricane shutters. Matthew will be bad, but I’ve lived through worse. Just have a lot of candles, batterues or oil lamps.
10My husband just helped a friend of ours move from Maryland to a house on the northern coastal side of Charleston SC. That was Sunday. On Tuesday she got the evacuation order. She says they’re going to help her because she’s legally blind and has a guide dog, another dog, and a cat. And can’t drive, of course.
An older friend lives south of Orlando. On the expected-wind map it’s in the second 0 of the “60-80 mph.”
Best of luck to both of them, and to everyone else’s friends and family.
11These links all lead to many more (and another layer are even more detailed, such as the Monterey Navy Met Lab, Fleet WX, etc).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/061656.shtml
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=enh&inv=0&t=l12®ion=se
This has VG info, some comments about what things you need and should do):
12http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/6/1578489/-Matthew-Re-Intensifies-to-Cat-4-140mph-Heading-To-Florida-s-Space-Coast-9-Foot-Storm-Surge-Possible#comment_63745901
Jonathon Hubbert: GOOD ON YOU, MAN! Being helpful is a god-send. Stay safe and dry. My best to you and all who you are helping. Bless you all.
13Tybee is one of my favorite places on earth, with Savannah nearby, it’s the perfect spot. The road out to Tybee floods even on a sunny day. I worry so much!
14I’m on the left coast of Florida. St. Pete, to be exact. If anyone on the east coast still has access to a computer and would prefer to stay in a real house rather than a shelter or hotel — the latch string is out here. Come on across — if you can.
And be safe.
15P.S. Btw, email is twocrows1023@gmail.com. Just in case someone IS in a position to take on the trip at this late time.
16@ Sanborne Addison: If you’re interested in a cross country trip with a soft landing, come on across to St. Pete.
17Holleee mofo’in jeebus, mari an’ joe, another confirmation that Matthew is one honkin’ badazz SUMUVABEECH:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/06/in-focus-the-unprecedented-hurricane-disaster-facing-the-east-coast-of-florida/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_cwg-matthew-215pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1578489/63746391#comment_63746391
Y’all do the best you can to stay safe over there…
18two crows,
Keep in mind that Matthew may possibly make a return visit to Florida next week. Yes, rly.
It stands a chance of rejuvenating in the Atlantic when it makes the forecast loop around.Then it may attack Florida perpendicularly, cutting clear across the state from east to west, and then enter the Gulf of Mexico. Or it could continue down into the Caribbean.
If it then gets into the Gulf (or Carib), it could have yet another devastating career of destruction (obviously there are many factors involved, both for and against this scenario).
Matthew is one anomalous SOB, look out y’all.
19.
(some of my kids served as Coasties at the St.Pete CGS & CGAS, they liked the area a lot)
Most recent official Matthew update. A full update will be out in 20 minutes or so.
Note that FL sites are feeling more effects.
Note especially the falling barometric pressure (IIRC, M’s lowest yet), the main indicator of intensity and trendline.
Matthew’s deepening pressure is a very bad sign of intensification. And the hurricane is now transiting the even warmer Gulf Stream Current (which M will ride up the FL east coast), trillions of kilo-joules of free energy and power for the taking.
Woowee, I’m even scarin’ myself…
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/061958.shtml
000
WTNT64 KNHC 061958
TCUAT4
HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
400 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
…4 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE…
A NOAA station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama recently reported
a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph
(89 km/h). A National Ocean Service station at Lake Worth Pier,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and
a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT…2000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…26.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…70 KM SE OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…938 MB…27.70 INCHES
$$
20Forecaster Brennan
Per the NHC forecast storm track, ~midnight next Wednesday (seven days hence) Matthew will be RIGHT BACK where it is now!!
NosuchthangasclimatechangeNosuchthangasclimatechangeNosuchthangasclimatechange…
FYI:
21http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154742.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Even the bottlenose dolphins that live in the Atlantic off the South Florida coast are heading for the hills…
22I think I have one cousin left in Florida. I do pray that she is safe! I recall a hurricane that just about leveled Homestead AFB some years ago. It was slated for decommissioning anyway but after the storm some folks insisted that it be rebuilt. As for my cousin, Kimberly, if Atlanta is already booked up try for Huntsville across the state line. That should do ya!
23Thanks Sandridge. Yeah, I saw that on the spaghetti map. Oops.
Still, I’m putting my faith in Tampa Bay’s luck.
There’s an ancient native burial ground here-abouts. Some folks credit it with the fact that, generally speaking, big storms tend to veer away from here.
My theory is a bit different: I think the people took note of the fact that storms that are heading this way tend to go out of their ways to avoid the area and said, “Hey, our ancestors will feel safe here.” So the cemetery is here due to the historic lack of storms rather than it being a lucky charm against them.
Still — either way works for me.
About a year and a half after I arrived, Faye had us in her sights. Then she took one look, said “OMG, It’s Tampa!” and made a hard right turn.
Now, if Matthew makes a U-ey, may I be proved right.
Better yet, Matthew — just head on out to sea and leave us land-critters alone. There’s a good boy.
24Good luck to y’all. Be careful and safe.
25Let me state that (for the record) I have gone through well over a dozen and closer to 20 hurricanes since my first storm (which was Hilda in 1964). Since then, I’ve seen Betsy (1965), Camille (1969), Edith and Fern (1971), Carmen (1974), Babe (1977), Bob (1979), Danny, Elena and Juan (1985), Beryl and Florence (1988), Andrew (1992), Erin and Opal (1995), Danny (1997), Earl, Georges and Hermine (1998), Allison (2001), Isadore and Lili (2002), Ivan and Matthew (2004), Gustav (2008), Ida (2009), and finally Isaac (2012).
That’s 28 named storms of one kind or another, from a weak Babe to a group of major storms (Bersy, Camille, Andrew,Opal, and Georges). Needless to say, I’ve seen minor storms and major storms… with a few severe storms.
26This is just sickening. Drudge, Limpballs and white supremacists are saying Matthew won’t be that bad, that the warnings are part of a liberal conspiracy and people need not leave. That’s simply horrific. Those socksuckers.
https://goo.gl/bTPAsD
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