Written by Elizabeth Moon
Many readers have probably read Barbara Tuchman’s superb history of the early days of World War I (if not, go find a used or library copy and read it.) Tensions mounted between great blocks of power in Europe–Germany, Austria, Russia, France, Britain, before August 1914, but many thought–and more hoped–that the “balance of power” would stay balanced.
As we all know, it didn’t. And Tuchman’s book, and others, have pointed out the many, many signs that it could not hold in the face of the pressures on it. Each power bloc had internal pressures pushing its stability to the limit already.
Long before January 6, 2021, there were ample signs–visible to many ordinary citizens–that the traditional balance of political power in this nation was failing, and by September 2020, it was clear that one of the two main political parties had stepped so far out of its internal balance that its titular leader, the sitting president, was refusing to say that the change in Administration would be peaceful, should he lose. Refused to say that he would concede if the count went against him.
Once again, many people thought tradition, more than two centuries of peaceful transfer of power between one Administration and another, would surely prevail. Many others worried, and hoped the sitting president was just trying to wring more votes out of those scared by the prospect of violence.
And once again, that balance of power sustained in our case for centuries…the tradition of healthy inertia, of habit, could not sustain this, and its fracture led to the attack on the Capitol, the sedition, the treason, the conspiracy that threatened the lives of Congress and staff, and resulted in deaths, injuries, damage. And the still unbroken will of those who broke the peace, who clearly intend to try again. Who are eager to try again.
The title Tuchman used, The Guns of August, is still, and peculiarly, appropriate to discuss the next insurrection/rebellion/treason/sedition planned by those who want to take our nation down. Because it is in August–next month–they plan to make another attempt to seize power and restore the former president to the White House, this time using the guns, bombs, and other weapons they did not use in January.
You may remember I said earlier that the January 6 attack could have been intended as the actual attempt to overthrow the government, using minimal violence (compared to war, the injuries and deaths, the damage to the building, etc were minimal) with the secondary aim of probing defenses and reconnoitering the physical plant which was not normally available to public view. The success of the attack, on this secondary goal, was complete.
They found which entrances were easiest to enter; they got through the tunnels into both House and Senate office buildings, identified blind spots, choke points, and other things attacking forces can use to do more harm with fewer troops. They activated at least some of their allies in our military, men and women already knowledgeable about urban combat and assessment of the defensibility of structures. They tested at least some of their equipment. And of course they terrorized those members of Congress who weren’t in on it, while assessing the reactions of those who were (and thus did not feel threatened because they believed they would not be harmed.)
In the aftermath of January 6th, the Republican Party has gone right ahead with inflammatory rhetoric, some of its members in Congress insisting that the attack wasn’t really an attack, and themselves claiming that it’s the Democrats’ fault: the election was stolen, the Democrats are the Nazis, the Democrats are Communists, the Democrats are “enemies of the people” and “enemies of the state.” (I wonder if they even realize those are Communist term, heavily used in the Stalinist USSR and all its satellites, as well as in China? These are not terms Americans typically used unless they had been subject to Leninist or Maoist dialectic. They were tossed around in the Sixties by the most far-Left campus orators when I was in college.) The former president has come back into politics with a firm intention to run again, and dog-whistles calling his attack troops to his side.
In among this are the trickles coming out of 4chan and 8chan, usually single posts tossed into Twitter revealing the clear intention to strike again and use the lethal weapons they already possess against our government and the American people who aren’t on their side…which they believe are a minority. “This time we bring the guns.”
Is there any chance a second attack could succeed where the first didn’t? Indeed yes. Because the first attack, designed to look spontaneous and (at first) harmless with that crowd of MAGA-hatted obvious civilians acting as cover under which the Proud Boys and other obviously military-trained troops moved until the final assault, did not have the firepower it could have had. The designers wanted time inside, photograph everything, measure everything, decide the best way to do more next time.
Next time will be highly lethal for the defenders if they are not prepared and in place. Next time the guns waiting nearby in a truck will be carried by the invaders. Next time it won’t be pepper spray and bear spray but CS and CN and maybe worse gases. It won’t be tasers, effective as they are one on one, but actual bullets, the kind mass-shooters use. Next time…well, here’s how Dunnigan and Nofi put it in their book on military failures, Shooting Blanks: “…your average coup only requires a few hundred infantry and some armored vehicles.”
