Your Huuuge DeathMatch ‘16 Viewer’s Guide
Before we get on to what to watch for tonight, there’s an interesting little experiment going on over at Slate with a group called VoteCastr, who are updating estimated status of the races INTRADAY!
Starting with the lists of people who cast votes early, VoteCastr is applying the microtargeting techniques used in modern political campaigns (well, not so much with der Drumpf, danke Gott) to estimate what the current state of the race is. Estimating the race in a state by party affiliation alone is kind of like estimating ethnicity based on hair and skin color – it works a lot in the middle of the bell curve, but not so much close to the edges.
We are very close to the edge of the bell curve, here, because of Trump’s historically bad campaign. As we saw, this makes betting on party affiliation as dispositive a fool’s errand. Furthermore, we cannot make any estimates based on non-affiliated voters. VoteCastr tries to predict the choice of any individual person who has voted.
Take VoteCastr with a very bigly grain of salt. I don’t know how well it’s going to work, but I’m going to be refreshing it all day. If accurate, it could change election day reporting. Maybe not for the better.
As for tonight, pay attention as polls close to what the characterizations are. Early calls in early voting states are significant of trends. “Too early to call” but characterized Clinton are good. “Too early to call” where we expect success are worrying, especially if they flip to “too close to call.” A lot of “too close to call” means a long night.
There are 3 states that will tell you early on how the night is going to go:
Florida: They had 50% early turnout in Florida, with only another 20-30% expected today. At 7 PM most of Florida’s polls will close and those early numbers will be posted. If Hillary is ahead bigly – as we suspect she may be – then it’s all over but the shouting. If Rubio is down bigly, it’s going to be a Huuuge Night for Dems. But Florida won’t be called until the panhandle closes.
North Carolina: NC could be called early, and if it is it will be for Clinton. A long-lasting “too close to call” here means that Comey’s letter had as deep an effect as could be feared, short of flipping the election. NC had a drop off in black early voting, which could be deemed a lack of enthusiasm but is probably more related to the voter suppression on early voting. How the AfAm vote turns out today everywhere is KEY up and down the ticket and NC would be a pre-cursor to Rust Belt races. An early Clinton call would be Huuuuge.
New Hampshire: After the craziness of the polls this past week, THIS is the place where we see what it all means. A quick Hillary-Maggie win there and it’s Katy-bar-the-Huuuge-door. A Trump win and it’s a looong night and maybe a loooonger 4 years with a GOP Congress. To me, all-white NH is the key indicator as to the turn-out power of the campaigns, the actual enthusiasm of the Trump voter, the power of the women’s vote and the coat tails of both campaigns among whites across the US.
Other states to watch to gauge trends:
Eastern Time Zone: MI, PA, GA for strength of minority GOTV. OH for ticket splitting.
Central Time Zone: When the polls close and early characterizations are made from MN to TX, we will know how Huuge a win Hillary will have. Watch Indiana and Iowa, states where Trump AND the GOP are anticipated to do well but may instead show the strength of the Democratic ticket. Senate wins in these states are not expected, but still possible. How the Heartland votes tonight will determine the course of the US, maybe for decades.
Mountain Time Zone: Should be over by the time we reach 10 PM, Real Standard Time, but if not, Arizona is the place to watch. Utah will really be fun, too, because thanks to the third party, the fourth party and the McMullin Party of One, this may be more of a Donner Party than a Donnie Party for Republicans.
Points West: No trends to watch here, just the final call if it’s been a slow night for Hillary to this point. Blue Pacific, Blue Hawaii and I may go to bed before we find out what Alaska does, but it will be interestingly anti-climactic, I’m sure.
Bottom line for tonight:
Don’t panic! It’s not a question of if she wins, it’s a question of if she wins HUUUUGE! Try to stay relaxed, rested and reasonably sober, and don’t forget to stretch before going into your victory dance.
With the rePUKEians putting trump in for prez, I have determined that it is a faint! Their real candidate is their secret rePUKEian …Hillary!!! She is a rePUKEian running as a demoncrat!!
1L.Long can understand that one might feel that way. I did once upon a time. But the numbers don’t support the thesis. If Hilz was their gal, she’d have better coattails on the down ballot races. That’s not happening. With all the spin about Bill and Hilz, found this Samantha Bee video particularly useful in sorting out the facts from the many fictions re Hilz. In the interest of full disclosure, I supported Bernie and am a Green/Progressive who voted for Hilz. Between his tax plan and readiness to launch the nukes, Donnie scared me. That he is a self serving insensitive buffoon sealed the deal.
*** Mama, please don’t open the link ***
http://crooksandliars.com/2016/11/samantha-bee-i-m-voting-hillary-goddamn
2Getting out the popper, pop corn, butter and movies. Will check on election between movies. That’s about all my headache will tolerate.
3PKM, good link. Hillary Rodham has put up with so much crap that it’s a wonder she’s still out there trying, but by god she’s a fighter. As that guy at the convention said, “She won’t stay throwed!”
I wish Arkansas voters hadn’t forced her to change her surname. I got sick of trying to keep Papa Bush and Baby Bush (remember the Duvaliers of Haiti?) straight, and it would be simpler if she’d be President Rodham. And cool as hell.
4Rhea, somehow I bet you’ll be able to distinguish between Madame President Clinton and Mr President Clinton with ease. Not to mention that they don’t share the same first name and praise the dogs neither of them is a Bush.
Remember what you remember? No. But I’ve read about them. 😀
5Primo, polls may be a little off this election cycle. While Donnie may claim he’s yuuuuge with Blacks and Hispanics, accept those figures of <2% for Blacks, while 20% with Hispanics may be a little on the high side. The most disparate numbers (on the low end) may be Hilz; women married to Donnie supporters probably are not being vocal about voting for Hilz. Probably a few guys too wimpy to admit they're voting for a woman, too.
Best line, think it was Seth Myers. Chaffetz couldn't support Donnie because of his daughter. Now he can support Donnie. "did he lose a daughter?"
6In regards to Iowa,
7I live in The Peoples Republic of Iowa City. We will lead the state in Democratic votes per capita and likely, the most votes for Jill Stein (I’m not happy about those) I am hoping that my fellow Iowans do the right thing and dump T-Rump but I’d put Patty Judge”s chance of beating Grassy among voters across the state at close to 0%.
Voting in my precinct today was easy peasy lemon squeezy! And that is a big and most welcome development. The venue had been entirely remodeled. It was light, bright and welcoming, a huge change from the previous ambience. Our elections officials at the tables were using the most amazing little computers held up on small pedestals so they would not get a crick in the old neck. Touch screens, too! Gone are the big fat ugly messy books for checking registration. Everyone seemed to be super cool. They tell me that when the doors opened this AM, there was one enormous mob of people on their way to work. By 1 PM things had definitely modified. By 3:30 there will be another mob coming in with people leaving work early to vote before the doors close. Have the feeling things will go Hillary’s way in my precinct!
8(I already posted this on the previous one, but it’s such a good story I want to make sure y’all appreciate this wonderful old lady. Then a little bit at the bottom.)
I voted this morning and the entire process took about 30 minutes. The site was a Lutheran retirement village gym so lots of old people and some young. The woman voting beside me had bad tremors so, per Minn law, an election judge filled in the ovals for her. She wanted to vote a straight Democratic ticket, but Minn ballots don’t have a D or R at the top. You have to vote for each individual race. So the election guy went down the ballot and she stuck with the Dems. My kind of woman, must have been 85 or older.
After voting I took a decompression drive through the countryside and it’s lovely out.
9Victory dance, Primo? I just wanna be somewhere where I can use one of my favorite lines, “Thank God THAT shit’s over with… I’d like a drink!
Maybe I’ll keep drinking til Drumpf concedes. You may never hear from me again.
10This one wasn’t the fault of the DFH’s. Too many people held their nose and pulled R rather than vote for a hardworking, brilliant, exceptional woman with a shite tonne of baggage, some manufactured, some real.
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