Will 2016 Be a Hillary Blowout – Part Deux
The debates are over. The closing arguments for the 2016 general election campaign have begun. Barring a Hillary melt-down, she will be the President-elect of the United States in less than three weeks and does anyone think she’s capable of melting down within sight of the finish line? Trump’s capitulation notwithstanding, the world will wake up on November 9 heaving a collective sigh of relief. Will he concede? Probably in some mealy-mush-mouthed form that leaves just enough of an out for him and his bundists to reinterpret it for years to come, but that won’t matter.
So, WILL 2016 be a Hillary blowout?
The answer increasingly looks like “Hell, Yes!” Let’s revisit the things that had to have happened
[In 2012] Obama carried 51.1% of the popular vote; that victory was largely based on carrying the following demographics: Women 55-44; AfAm 93-6; Asian 73-26; Hispanic 71-27; LGBT 76-22. Do you see Hillary’s numbers going up or down in these growing constituencies against Trump? Then consider these opportunities for growth against Obama’s performance in 2012: He lost married women 53-46; he lost independents 50-45; he lost college graduates 51-47. Do you see Trump improving or worsening on Romney’s numbers in these areas?
Hillary HAS improved in all of these areas, BIGLY, and she now leads by among Men, and among the Non-college-educated. Full stop.
What else needed to happen? Here we listed what could comprise the Perfect Storm:
- “Let Trump be Trump”- Check!
- “Perception: The media “horserace” narrative must be overcome” – Check!
- “Depressed GOP turnout – especially among women, who will be subjected to months of Trump’s misogyny…Strong Dem turnout and some crossover GOP votes – especially among women and minorities.” – remains to be seen but looking like Check!
- “Vice Presidential nominees” – no effect.
- “Election strategy – Trump is the king of earned media and very little else…Hillary should be able to out-organize him everywhere.” – Check!
- “Will: CHALLENGE EVERYWHERE.” Half a Check – getting there
That last point bears examination. Hillary has foreclosed on the typical swing states and is moving into new areas. Kansas, Arkansas and Louisiana are not coming along as well as we’d hoped, and South Carolina is surprisingly close, but the Clinton campaign resisted branching out into new territory until they felt they had the old territory completely wrapped up. It was this cautious (but, importantly, winning!) strategy that has narrowed the map to the point where 500+ EV seem all but out of reach, but 400 is eminently do-able.
So where does that put us? Here is where I see the map as of today:
Toldja so!
I have a lot more in the blue column than most pundits are comfortable with right now because I am predicting that Hillary’s momentum will continue, and that GOP turn-out will be depressed. In addition, all other things being equal, a strong ground-game will net you 1-3 percentage points above predicted polls. With zero Trump ground game, and what exists of the GOP ground game torn between their local heroes and the toxic top of the ticket, the situation is dire for Republican turnout. For that reason, states that currently show mid-single-digit leads for Trump could actually end up being blue, and thus are now toss-ups.
What this map gives you is 375 Electoral Votes for Hillary, versus 86 for Trump, with 77 toss-ups. It is possible that Trump wins those 77, although I give Hillary and Evan McMullin a better chance to win Utah than Trump. But it would be strange if somehow the Trump campaign stumbled onto the formula for holding Florida or Ohio. If he wins those, it will be on the coat tails of the down-ballot races.
Rather than making it a closer race, I believe it is more possible that the entire scampaign will collapse under the featherweight at the top and a 10- to 14-point landslide could put us more in Perfect Storm range. At the very least, such a victory would flip both houses of Congress and provide a mandate for governance that would last a year. It’s more likely, however, that voter ennui and inertia will result in a solid victory for Hillary, a close but Blue Senate, and a close but Red House.
The takeaway: 270 is still a lock – always has been – but turnout and vote-splitting for a Party in such disarray as the GOP is entirely unpredictable even at this late stage. It could be a lonely landslide, or it could be a Big Blue Tsunami!
I’m voting – for the latter.
I think the business as usual republicans are now thinking – popcorn and leftover halloween candy are good for November 8th and will sit this one out.
As I bike around my neighborhood I have noticed nothing but Hillary signs and where there were Trump/Pence signs are now nothing but tie-backs blowing in the wind.
1My neighborhood is suddenly blooming in Hillary signs. One Trump sign, a cloth banner, hung so high up in some trees it is nowhere at eye level for motorists. Even pedestrians would have a hard time seeing it. Oh, and one Gary Johnson sign on the lawn of the guy who owns the neighborhood pit bull. Go Hillary!
2A 400-500+ EV HRC win would be damned nice. TRaunch and the Repukes would be Whigged into oblivion.
3My cousin, Jesus Hachecristo, had a Gary Johnson sign…
…but he smoked it.
4Let it be so, Primo. What we wouldn’t give for a blue White House and Senate. Be still, my heart, could there actually be a blue House? That would mean that my fellow Americans have seen the light, completely. Too much to hope for? This is our last best hope to clean out the outhouse it has become.
5I love your scenario Primo. While I believe it, worrying is one of the things I do best, so I’ll wait till 11/8 when Hillary’s count hits 270. Then I’ll probably cry, not only due to relief, but because I’ll get to experience Madame President.
Madame President. Doesn’t that just sound so sweet? Ahhhhhh. It thrills me down to my bones to know that young girls will grow up knowing that, “Of course a girl can be president!”
6Man, it would nice to turn the whole country blue at this point.
“Ladies and gentlemen, I want to make a major announcement today,” Trump told a rally in Delaware, Ohio. “I would like to promise and pledge to all of my voters and supporters and to all of the people of the United States that I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election — if I win.”
I think he’s really set on rewriting the definition of “jaw-dropping [glassbowl].”
7BTW, has anyone else noticed that this is the first time in American history that a woman has run for president? No? Because no one is really talking about that anymore. Donald Trump has done what no man has done before, he’s made voters look at the best PERSON for the job, not the best man for the job. In a strange, convoluted manner, Trump has created respect for women, their qualifications, and their ability to do any job in the country. Who knows where this could lead?
8Primo, another A+ article. As an aside, after 16 months of nonstop politics, how can there be undecided voters?
9I live on the Redneck Riviera. The Flora-Bama Bar is just down the road, famous for contests involving tossing mullet for distance across the state line.
I think there is one group that is probably under-counted in the polls: women who will never admit to their friends, surely not to their husbands, and not even to a pollster because that would be admitting out loud that they are voting against Trump.
Watch for surreptitious grins after the election.
10Primo, I’m thinking I’m asking again; it doesn’t appear that the 1% who I understand who are Ivory soap repubs in numbers; eg, heard there are about 500 billionaires in this country, have suffered any serious dents to their wealth. Do you envision them joining the kumbaya choir now? Are they going to have sufficient choir boys in gov’t? How long do you suppose the general public is going to recall what by the next election(s)? Do you really see any long-term reform of gov’t at most levels without controlling or neutering the power of the 1%?
11@Primo- Original Entry(OE)The dRUMPfistas are now saying the donald does not use BIGLY what he’s saying is supposedly big league. I take it as another sign they’re completely gone in a world of their own making which has no connection to reality. I love it when cons try to slander Hollywood.There is no segment of our economy that is more market-driven, and I hear cons say,all the time, let the market decide.In Hollywood the market determines which movies or TV shows get made,and the market determines which are successes in all terms,eyeballs and/or money.
12Rick, I appreciate your point, but just want to mention that women have run for President before. Victoria Woodhull did it in 1872, Shirley Chisholm in 1972, and Elizabeth Dole in 2000, among others. Of course Clinton is the first to be the nominee of a major party.
13@Rick,
Eggzacly.
I preferred HRC in’08, Sanders in this primary, but have always admired the Clintons (with some major caveats).
In last night’s debate, Hillary could not hardly have done better.
Her intelligence, skill, drive, etc., shone brightly; a supernova, compared to the ‘Apricot Dwarf Star’ next to her (and that sorry ass Fux Nooz toadie too).
She was brilliant.
The way she skinned and deboned that fetid, flaccid, rotting mullet was amazing.
I’ll be damned proud to vote next week for her.
14(and every other damned Democrat on the ballot, they’re getting scarce around here. I don’t even vote for reasonably ‘good’ Rep local candidates anymore, they want to stay in that massively corrupt, diseased party, fine; ain’t hepin’ ’em.)
What will it take to convince the First Lady that she should run to succeed President Hillary Clinton in 2024?
15BTW, it is entirely possible that the race could be called at 8 PM CST depressing turnout west of the Mississippi. So many damn permutations are possible that PoliSci AND CompSci candidates will be writing PhD theses on this for 20 years! Historians for the next 20!
16Just looking at your map . . . can contemplate a full east coast and west coast sweep for Hillary with other necessary states elsewhere!
17Primo –
Is there any precedent for calling the presidential race before 8 PM Pacific time (assuming Alaska & Hawaii won’t change the outcome of the election)? I don’t think there’s any hard and fast rule other than a gentleman’s agreement among networks to hold off until mainland polling stations close, to encourage citizens to continue voting for candidates in local races. Of course every news organization wants bragging rights to claim they were the first to call an election, but this year that won’t mean much as they’re probably safe to make the determination today.
From Hawaii: A lot earlier than the rest of you, in a state far, far away.
18van59: no, “boys?”, not long, no – their permission neither requested nor required – SCOTUS will be sufficient to the task. State level is where battles will be joined.
Rick – as I recall, it is a semi-polite semi-fiction – the networks are more circumspect after the 2000 debacle but only out of fear of being wrong. They cannot help but call the race of late only after California has voted. They won’t call a STATE until all poll closing times have passed, but once enough states are called to make 270, the race is called.
That’s why a strong ground game including loads of absentee and early GOTV is key.
19My daughter and I (early) voted today. We had to wait in line. I suspect many US voters are horrified at the idea that Trump could possibility attain the presidency.
20I and My just finished watching last night’s Daily Show, and they raise a worrisome topic: The Millenials that have been spoiled by having (only) Obama as their candidate. They just can’t deal with a candidate that is sub-prime Vs the-world-will-end.
21Hey Millenials: Remember Nader in 2000!
Don’t worry too much about the Millenials. I was phone banking for local candidate Stephanie Murphy (Florida) on Wednesday night. I was the oldest one in the room of 35 or so by at least 30 years 🙂 Smart, enthusiastic, organized and they work their butts off. Stephanie herself is young and has a five year old and a two year old. A small sampling for certain, but working for Darren Soto too and lots of young people in that campaign!
22Just remind everyone you know… the high-fives happen in the end zone. It ain’t over til it’s over.
23VOTE.
DON’T BELIEVE any of the polls!!! Make believe they are all wrong and VOTE!!! Or TRUMP could still win!!!
24Im voting Blue on Monday. A Blue Texas would be a marvelous sight!
25I think we’re seeing a big orange meltdown right now. It’s fascinating in a car wreck sort of way.
26Maggie, I noticed last time I drove into town that the one Trump sign along the road has disappeared. There are two others, yooge ones, in peoples’ yards. (The drive is about 40 miles.) Those property owners must be SO embarrassed by now. I just laugh and shake my head when I see them.
There was a unique one as well. It said Hillary 2016, but between the two words (on separate lines), it added “for jail”. I have considered going there in the dead of night and putting a wide strip of black tape across that part. Of course, I won’t, but it’s entertaining to contemplate the reaction.
27Primo, there’s a Big Blue Tsunami, then there’s the little wasp stings of grumpy snacilbupeR.
Obviously my main concern for 2016 is defeating Joe Heck in the NV Senate race. Others are stumping for Russ Feingold to trounce what’s his name.
But the cup of schadenfreude I’d really like to share is a total defeat of Lyin’ Ryan by Ryan Solen (D). Too much to hope for? Maybe. But remembering the thorough smack down of Eric Cantor, let this be the year.
28Can’t wait to vote. So fired up that we can have sweep
29Vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, vote. (Too late to register now.)
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