Will 2016 be a Hillary blowout?
What is an Electoral College blowout?
I am defining an Electoral College blowout, somewhat arbitrarily, as 400 EV. Since the number of electoral votes first went above 500 in 1912, the winner has won by a blowout, surprisingly, 14 times! In fact, it’s extremely rare that a President wins with less than 300 EV; that’s only happened 4 times (twice with Dubya) compared to the 3 times in these last 26 elections that the winner has achieved 500 or more electoral votes, what I am calling the Perfect Storm. So a winning electoral college map above 300 votes is actually the norm!
Doesn’t Trump shake up the map?
Not in a good way for Republicans, because the Trump path to winning the election is not new, it’s not revolutionary and it’s not going to work.
Politico has been doing some deep dives into some of the primary data and has discovered a few things: 1) The new voters that Trump is bringing into the process are really old voters who usually vote in November but rarely vote in primaries. 2) The percentage of Democrats crossing over to vote in the GOP primary is no bigger than the usual amount 3) The number of actual new GOP voters in this cycle is no larger than normal, either.
What this means is that Trump is not putting any blue states in play simply by being Trump, so from the GOP standpoint, this is going to turn into another long slog trying to defend former red states that demographics are turning increasingly purple, while trying to peel off recent purple states that are turning increasingly blue.
In reality, what this means is that the 300+ electoral votes that Obama won in each of the last two elections have actually conformed to the historical norm, and is likely to continue that way, for Hillary, especially as Trump and the GOP continue to weaken recent red strongholds.
Here’s how I see the current starting point, broken out by region.
I’m serious, you guys!
East-Northeast: From Maryland north and east, including PA – all those states have been solidly in the Democratic column since 1992, except for NH in 2000 (thanks, Nader!) Nothing is going to change that. Regional EV for Hillary: 112
Upper Midwest/Rust Belt: From Ohio west and north to Minnesota – we lost Ohio in 2000 and 2004 by 3 and 2 points, respectively. We’ve won it by 5 and 3 points since. Other than that, Indiana is the only state in this bunch consistently voting red, but not always. Not counting IN, regional EV for Hillary: 80. Toss-up: 11
Appalachia/Old South: From West Virginia south and west to the Mississippi – this has mostly been an area of red dominance with a few swing states thrown in. Bill Clinton did okay here as Bubba. Florida has been moving blue since 1996, with the GOP only winning there in 2004 (in 2000 they cheated). Virginia has been breaking blue lately and NC has turned into a swing state. It will remain in Hillary’s column, thanks in part to bathrooms. The rest will remain red, for now, except Georgia, which is turning into a swing state. Regional EV: Hillary 57, Trump: 48, Toss-up 16.
TransMississippi: From Kansas south and east to the river – this has been solidly red, of late and probably will remain so except for a couple of factors. Kansas and Louisiana as GOP/ALEC laboratories of dumb are in really bad shape. The recent elections in LA give us hope. Arkansas, it’s hard to say: they like Bubba but Hill was never as popular there. Still, it’s one of her “home” states. Missouri has been threatening to be in play for awhile, and Texas, well, wtf you guys? Will we ever mobilize the Hispanic vote? Economic trends, bad GOP stewardship, changing demographics, as well as the possibility of a Texas VP pick for the Dems keep everything in this area as a toss-up (leaning red) in my estimation, except for OK. Regional EV: Trump 7, Toss-up 68
The Northern Plains: From Nebraska north and west to Idaho – this has been red and will stay red, except for the odd vote-splitting in Nebraska, which will net Hillary 1 EV. Throw Alaska in for good measure (although, ya know? Alaska is weird sometimes) and this is the best part of the November 8 for Trump. Regional EV: Hillary 1, Trump 23, Toss-up 0.
The Four Corners: CO, NM, AZ, UT and add in Nevada – this region has seen the most movement from red to blue, of late, as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada have trended that way for Obama, in part thanks to the growing Hispanic vote. I believe AZ will also move blue this time, leaving Utah the lone red stalwart in the area – or is it? Mitt Romney and the Mormons are SO anti-Trump, that I’ve moved this state into the Toss-up column. Regional EV: Hillary 31, Toss-up 6.
The Left Coast – CA,WA, OR, HI – nothing to say other than Regional EV: Hillary 78.
Which brings us to Hillary 359, Trump 78, Toss-up 101
Will 2016 be a Hillary blowout?
Well, she’s well on her way to one. In order to get to this jumping off point, she has to defend the recent gains like OH, VA and FL, shore up WI and MI, and win new swings like AZ and NC. Then she has to start creating new swing states like GA and Texas.
Picking up the 41 votes she needs to reach 400 will be difficult without Texas, but still do-able. She will challenge hard in TX, LA, GA and IN, and hope to get lucky in the remaining toss-ups by making Donald Trump play defense in areas where the GOP has lately been having to spend more time. If she starts to get traction in KY and TN, look out!
But Texas is the key to a new liberal hegemony. If we flip Texas, it’s “Katy, bar the door” and we’re off to the races in search of 500, the Perfect Storm.
Next: The Perfect Storm (this post got too long)
I certainly hope this election is a blow out,and that we Democrats take the W.H,as well as the House and Senate back into a majority of the side of progression. We have to vote this year,and in the off years as well. And by the by,the left coast is better known as the Best Coast,says this born and bred Cali native
1Nice work, Primo. You’ve been doing a lot of heavy lifting lately, but it’s a long time until November. For your own sake, hope you’ll pace yourself. No sense busting a gut before the home stretch.
2But, how many of those good Republican electronic voting machines — you know, the ones that don’t print an actual receipt showing how you voted — have been programmed to throw the ballots cast to a Republican majority? Are there any plans to test the accuracy of the vote count before or during the election? If you’re being forced to use one of those electronic machines, how will you know they’re accurate?
3I have been prognosticating an Obama like election for Hilary for sometime, Something in the 350 EV range. of course that swag is predicated on a viable GOP candidate. It is possible that Drumpf will do less well than either Granpa or rMoney, maybe as little as what Mondale did in 1984 wit but 13. Who nose!
4Primo, wish we could guarantee NV for you. But we’re being Koched and Shelled hard. Fighting for our lives to maintain Harry Reid’s seat with Catherine Cortez Masto.
Some incitement going on here, too. Shelly is too st00pid to have launched this particular stream of ratmucking. Could be those dreamers from Heritage stealing a little Rove love. They’re floating a nukular trial balloon: Hilz doesn’t get the D nod; Bernie is pushed aside for a Biden/Warren ticket. Crazy eh? It has not been fun trying to explain to the easily led that they are being messed with big time. And, we still have Michelle Fiore, Sharron Angle and Sue Lowden in the crazy mix. Long time until November and the games are already approaching insane.
Speaking of insane, there were no riots at the state Democratic Caucus. The media was really played on that one, led by Jon Ralston and a duped Rachel Maddow. Quick synopsis here:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/05/18/the-faux-fracas-in-nevada-how-a-reporters-pack-of-lies-ran-riot-in-the-fact-averse-media/
Thinking I need a SuperPac – Scotch for the Last Sane Man Standing
5No one ever lost a dime betting on how dumb the voters are.
6All Frump needs to win is a big fight on the left. I am glad that the party is being pulled to the left. But I will back the party choice. Who ever he or she is. Any one but the Short Fingered Vulgarian.!! Nader should rot in hell for giving us Bush.
@Rastybob
How did Ralph Nader giver us a Bush? Which Bush, 41 or 43?
7The Hispanic vote comes out where I live. But then, they are considered neighbors.
8@Micr says:
9He took enough votes away from the Dparty choice to put Dubba in.
I am concerned that if Sanders goes independent (which is in his past behavior pattern) he could enough votes from Clinton to be the Nader of 2016.
10The numbers from 2000 show that Gore lost to Bush because of Nader much along the lines of why both McCain and R$Money lost due to Jill Stein and the Green Party. (>.<)
Elizabeth Moon, although Bernie was an Independent before he was a Democrat, he won't launch an Independent campaign for all the same reasons that he is now running as a Democrat. Doubt that any of that has changed for Bernie.
As for Hilz v Drumpf, sales may be a problem. HRC is a lackluster campaigner; it does not come natural to her. Whereas Donnie has a lifetime of selling smoke and mirrors. If she can stay on message and reveal Donnie as "the Emperor with no clothes" she might penetrate the voting electorate, maybe even win in a landslide. But betting on the American electorate? Not even.
11PKM, that’s my new go-to name for Drumpf, The Emperor With No Clothes. That says it all. Thanks.
What about the awful phone/email threats to the Nevada State Democratic Chairwoman? I saw Roberta Lange on TV stating that she had received death threats to herself and her family.
12Something has gone awfully wrong with Bernie’s supporters out there.
We need to hang together. Get out the Vote. Any thing, and any one, to beat the Short fingered Vulgarian.
13OT-HRC’s bestest boyfriend from South Carolina-Trey Gowdy-admits today that there was nothing the military could do to save the Benghazi consulate. Having finally admitted what everyone not named wingnut has known for years, Gowdy says the witch hunt will continue. Wasting more taxpayer dollars in another partisan debacle. And I don’t like or trust HRC. Gowdy and friends I loathhe.
14maryelle, there has been a tremendous amount of ratmucking in NV. The barrage of Koch and Shelly money was to be expected, but the level of vile is beyond depraved. There was no ‘riot at the caucus’ and the source of Roberta Lange’s angst is highly suspect.
Jon Ralston got powned and to make matters worse, Rachel Maddow’s producers used clips from a fight at a sporting event; that wasn’t the NV caucus. Here’s what really happened: http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/05/18/the-faux-fracas-in-nevada-how-a-reporters-pack-of-lies-ran-riot-in-the-fact-averse-media/
15Well, I have a problem with this theory for a number of reasons:
First, it does not account fully for the effects of GOP vote rigging, which I fully expect will be far worse this year than in years past. And since the feckless DNC isn’t doing a damn thing about it, it’s gonna be bad. Really bad.
Second, it doesn’t account for the fact that Hillary’s numbers are going to continue to decline as more and more people come to understand that she is just George W. Bush Lite. In fact, she’s even more of an eager warmonger than he was, and the USAnian public is tired of war, war and more war. Not a surprise that people at the left hand end of the Democratic spectrum are starting to call her “Killary.”
Third, there’s the overall tiredness of the Democratic brand after 8 years of Obama. Can you name a Democratic president that was elected as another Democratic president was leaving office? No, not since Truman anyway (and he just barely pulled it off). The Republicans are nothing if not skillful at exploiting a tired Democratic brand and the Democrats are nothing if not feckless at countering that unique skill.
So I don’t really think that, for all these reasons, this election is going to be a blowout for Hillary in the Electoral College or on the popular vote numbers summaries. If Hillary inspires Democrats, especially progressives, to do anything this year, it will be to vote for Jill Stein. Get used to saying “president Trump.”
16George Bush isn’t in the same league as Secretary Clinton.
17He was an imbecile, like Trump, who didn’t know the meaning of the word diplomacy. She is not a warmonger!
Hillary, as Secretary of State, oversaw the New START Treaty with Russia, the nuclear arms reduction treaty; was the author of the toughest sanctions on Iran, bringing them to the table on Nuclear Weapons, negotiated normalization of relations with Cuba; founded the Children’s health Initiative; fought for full military health benefits for reservists and members of the National Guard; created the position of Ambassador At Large for global women’s issues; fought for the Lilly Ledbetter Equity Act, Global Food Security Program, and was just as progressively active as Senator from New York
securing billions for the rebuilding of the 9/11 site, lead investigations into the health issues of 9/11 first responders, created the Office Of Violence Against Women at the DOJ, sought to increase funding for prostate cancer and childhood asthma at the NIH.
Hillary Clinton is the best qualified candidate to lead this country, so don’t ever throw around careless criticism like “Bush-Lite”. It’s demeaning to her and to all American women who admire and support her. Where’s the Tylenol?
@Rasty
Is this one of those “We must, … all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately.” moments?
18Flipping Texas? Mmm…it’s a nice thought, but I don’t think so. This state has flipped its lid, for sure, but it’s not flipping to the Dem. side any time soon. In Central Texas where I live, everyone automatically assumes you’re a Republican. I’ve seen more “Hillary for Prison 2016” bumper stickers than I care to say. Our GOP incumbent state rep. is being challenged because he’s “too liberal.” We had a candidate for tax assessor (tax assessor!) claim she was pro-2nd amendment and pro-life in her campaign ads. As if that had anything to do with her job. No, we’ve got a long row to hoe before Texas gets flipped.
19I intend to see Hill the first female POTUS. Consequently, I want to know just how much the **** about Bill’s past (20 to 30 years ago) that the Rethugs are using in ads is going to add up and what can really be done about it. I saw the Trump/Hannity thing and I have never come so close to barfing over a political ad in my life! Ideas, anybody?
20@ WC [Pete]:
Here’s the solution. Sign up for an absentee ballot. Do it now.
Advantages:
211] A paper ballot. No machines – crooked or otherwise.
2] A more educated electorate. I used to show up at the polls only to find a referendum or a judge being re-upped that/who I’d never heard of. Now, I sit down with my ballot, the computer and a cuppa. I google EVERYONE and EVERY MEASURE before I set pen to paper. And it’s all done at my very own most convenient time.
3] There’s no more convenient polling place than your own mailbox. No schlepping to the poll. No lines. No muss. No fuss.