What is an Electoral College blowout?

I am defining an Electoral College blowout, somewhat arbitrarily, as 400 EV. Since the number of electoral votes first went above 500 in 1912, the winner has won by a blowout, surprisingly, 14 times! In fact, it’s extremely rare that a President wins with less than 300 EV; that’s only happened 4 times (twice with Dubya) compared to the 3 times in these last 26 elections that the winner has achieved 500 or more electoral votes, what I am calling the Perfect Storm.  So a winning electoral college map above 300 votes is actually the norm!

Doesn’t Trump shake up the map?

Not in a good way for Republicans, because the Trump path to winning the election is not new, it’s not revolutionary and it’s not going to work.

Politico has been doing some deep dives into some of the primary data and has discovered a few things: 1) The new voters that Trump is bringing into the process are really old voters who usually vote in November but rarely vote in primaries.  2) The percentage of Democrats crossing over to vote in the GOP primary is no bigger than the usual amount 3) The number of actual new GOP voters in this cycle is no larger than normal, either.

What this means is that Trump is not putting any blue states in play simply by being Trump, so from the GOP standpoint, this is going to turn into another long slog trying to defend former red states that demographics are turning increasingly purple, while trying to peel off recent purple states that are turning increasingly blue.

In reality, what this means is that the 300+ electoral votes that Obama won in each of the last two elections have actually conformed to the historical norm, and is likely to continue that way, for Hillary, especially as Trump and the GOP continue to weaken recent red strongholds.

Here’s how I see the current starting point, broken out by region.

 I’m serious, you guys!

East-Northeast: From Maryland north and east, including PA – all those states have been solidly in the Democratic column since 1992, except for NH in 2000 (thanks, Nader!) Nothing is going to change that.  Regional EV for Hillary: 112

Upper Midwest/Rust Belt: From Ohio west and north to Minnesota – we lost Ohio in 2000 and 2004 by 3 and 2 points, respectively.  We’ve won it by 5 and 3 points since.  Other than that, Indiana is the only state in this bunch consistently voting red, but not always.  Not counting IN, regional EV for Hillary: 80.  Toss-up: 11

Appalachia/Old South: From West Virginia south and west to the Mississippi – this has mostly been an area of red dominance with a few swing states thrown in.  Bill Clinton did okay here as Bubba.  Florida has been moving blue since 1996, with the GOP only winning there in 2004 (in 2000 they cheated).  Virginia has been breaking blue lately and NC has turned into a swing state.  It will remain in Hillary’s column, thanks in part to bathrooms.  The rest will remain red, for now, except Georgia, which is turning into a swing state.  Regional EV: Hillary 57, Trump: 48, Toss-up 16.

TransMississippi: From Kansas south and east to the river – this has been solidly red, of late and probably will remain so except for a couple of factors.  Kansas and Louisiana as GOP/ALEC laboratories of dumb are in really bad shape.  The recent elections in LA give us hope.  Arkansas, it’s hard to say: they like Bubba but Hill was never as popular there.  Still, it’s one of her “home” states.  Missouri has been threatening to be in play for awhile, and Texas, well, wtf you guys?  Will we ever mobilize the Hispanic vote?  Economic trends, bad GOP stewardship, changing demographics, as well as the possibility of a Texas VP pick for the Dems keep everything in this area as a toss-up (leaning red) in my estimation, except for OK.  Regional EV: Trump 7, Toss-up 68

The Northern Plains: From Nebraska north and west to Idaho – this has been red and will stay red, except for the odd vote-splitting in Nebraska, which will net Hillary 1 EV.  Throw Alaska in for good measure (although, ya know?  Alaska is weird sometimes) and this is the best part of the November 8 for Trump.  Regional EV: Hillary 1, Trump 23, Toss-up 0.

The Four Corners: CO, NM, AZ, UT and add in Nevada – this region has seen the most movement from red to blue, of late, as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada have trended that way for Obama, in part thanks to the growing Hispanic vote.  I believe AZ will also move blue this time, leaving Utah the lone red stalwart in the area – or is it?  Mitt Romney and the Mormons are SO anti-Trump, that I’ve moved this state into the Toss-up column.  Regional EV: Hillary 31, Toss-up 6.

The Left Coast – CA,WA, OR, HI – nothing to say other than Regional EV: Hillary 78.

Which brings us to Hillary 359, Trump 78, Toss-up 101

Will 2016 be a Hillary blowout?

Well, she’s well on her way to one. In order to get to this jumping off point, she has to defend the recent gains like OH, VA and FL, shore up WI and MI, and win new swings like AZ and NC.  Then she has to start creating new swing states like GA and Texas.

Picking up the 41 votes she needs to reach 400 will be difficult without Texas, but still do-able. She will challenge hard in TX, LA, GA and IN, and hope to get lucky in the remaining toss-ups by making Donald Trump play defense in areas where the GOP has lately been having to spend more time.  If she starts to get traction in KY and TN, look out!

But Texas is the key to a new liberal hegemony. If we flip Texas, it’s “Katy, bar the door” and we’re off to the races in search of 500, the Perfect Storm.

Next: The Perfect Storm (this post got too long)