What’s at stake in Indiana tomorrow?

May 02, 2016 By: Primo Encarnación Category: Uncategorized

Absolutely nothing! On both the Democratic and the Republican sides, Indiana is the largest delegate haul between Pennsylvania last week and Jersey/California on June 7.  If either race were still a race, that would be kind of a big deal.  But on the Democratic side, Hillary has already pivoted to the general election, beginning with her victory speech last week.  On the Republican side, the Manafort coup was successful in that Trump has stopped hemorrhaging delegates to Cruz that he already thought he won, while the latest episode of John and Ted’s Excellent StopTrump Adventure didn’t even survive its first day, because everybody wants to stop Trump, but not as much as Everybody Hates Cruz, and Kasich is delusional.

Polls indicate that Bernie is close to Hillary in Indiana, but generally outside the margin of error. As we discussed last week, after Acela Tuesday, and after extrapolating the (still!) outstanding WA results, Hillary is indeed leading by about 300 pledged delegates.  Including super delegates, that lead expands to near 800, and Hillary is now within 200 delegates of the nomination.  She could lose each and every the remaining contest by 30 points, and still win the pledged delegate race.

Donald Trump could still, theoretically, be denied the nomination, but not before the convention. As he is the only candidate NOT mathematically eliminated, and leading in all the polls, I’m declaring this one “game over,” as well, until Cleveland.   Remembering that Everybody Hates Cruz, it’s doubtful that the GOP would like to further destroy their party by dumping the guy with the most voters and the most delegates in favor of ANYONE, but especially for God’s Cubanadian. Still, Cleveland will be must-see TV for politi-junkies like us; has major party convention ever needed a 7-second, bleep-able delay before?

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