What if…?
I hesitate to write this, but I figure a pseudonym and friendly environment provides the best cover. I also think that when my mind immediately went to this it shows not that I or anyone else that thought this are horrible people but that the state of our politics are this bad. However, the very first thought that came to mind when I heard about the news about the Trump “assassination attempt” was that it was a false flag.
Considering there are two people dead that makes the thought that much more detestable. There are three scenarios running through my head and I’ll let the peanut gallery vote for the most likely. I suppose we should add the possibility that all of this is on the level, but I’ll lay that aside for two important reasons. First, the secret service cleared all of those in attendance. So, they either royally fucked this up or something nefarious is at play. Secondly, this just lines up too perfectly. He is essentially unharmed, he gets to play victim, he gets to be in the news cycle, and they get to pin this on either left wing lawless zealots, people of color, immigrants, or they can go for the exacta. Details to come.
Scenario 1
All of the parties were knowingly involved. That means the purps are actually right wing operatives that knew they would be sacrificed. In this scenario the secret service were not involved in the plot. The planners simply knew that those two gentlemen would be taken out. I’m calling this one the least likely because I don’t see people willingly giving up their life for this ass clown, but I could be wrong there.
Scenario 2
The two men killed were not involved at all. It was a false flag that did not involve them. However, it would involve some in the secret service because it would involve them identifying two specific victims that fit the profile that would serve their narrative best. Admittedly, this is the scariest of the three scenarios because it makes the Secret Service complicit and it also means they specifically targeted two innocent people.
Scenario 3
It was a false flag that the Secret Service and those two were not involved in. The Secret Service honestly thought that they were involved and an active threat, so the Secret Service took them out. Honestly, this one is the most likely to me. Obviously, the identify of the two men shot hasn’t been released as of this writing. If they fit a particular narrative too easily then this scenario becomes less likely.
Okay, you place your vote.
I’m not ready to vote yet, but how do you hit your target without the bullet penetrating? I suppose a bullet can slow down, lose velocity and power over distance, but by that time wouldn’t the bullet’s trajectory then also hit lower than aimed?
Or did the bullet hit something else first?
1Or does Trump have the hardest head, the thickest head ever seen in the medical world?
I doubt it. On another site i frequent, they were discussing a “Reichstag Fire” possibility. But, it seems to me, that false flags like that don’t endanger the person at the center of the plot. Those people live to moan about the losses and vow to find the perpetrator–or somebody, anyway.
That bullet missed taking half of Trump’s head off by a couple of inches. Trump is a coward. Would he countenance something that would kill him if it went wrong, and hurt like h*ll, even if it went right? I doubt it.
2Politico reported that the shooter was outside the venue in an elevated position using an AR-15 assault weapon. Reports are Trump was hit by flying glass on his ear.
3I don’t think it was any of the scenarios but it will insure Trump is a martyr and cult hero. This can only help him and his fundraising.
I appreciate your effort Nick 🙂 but I’m with thatotherjean and Steve. (Saw a report that the glass that hit TFGs ear was from the teleprompter.) That said, he of course will milk it forever and a day. Todays events will help his course immensely.
4And JD Vance is saying this is all Biden’s fault (of course he says that), and another repugnantican congress motormouth says Biden ordered the hit. The crazy stuff is just getting started.
5I do not claim to be an expert but I have done some shooting in my time.
The following is just about ballistics and not about ethical considerations.
If you approached me and asked me to nick the ear of a moving person from about 150 yards using an AR-15 style carbine, but not kill him, I would tell you you are nuts.
A carbine is not a real rifle. It has a shorter barrel than a real rifle. This means easier use in close quarters, but less accuracy at long range.
If you asked me instead of an AR-15 style carbine, to use a serious rifle (maybe a scoped Remington 700) I would tell you it is possible, but we would need the target to be still and at the right angle for several seconds before the shot.
I’ve seen the video. Trump was not still.
Quit spinning out unrealistic scenarios.
6It was another nut with an AR-15 scatter-shooting in which he killed at least one, hit 2 others critically (one may have died) and nicked Trump with teleprompter glass. Probably trying to kill Trump but instead made him a hero. That’s the scenario I believe.
7Fair enough Slipstream. I just think the result is far too convenient. It just lines up too well. Maybe he just got lucky but it’s hard for me to buy luck.
8As others have pointed out, a false flag isn’t plausible because the risk of actually killing Trump would have been too great. If you’re thinking there was some kind of fake or non-lethal ammunition used or that the ear injury was produced by some staged method rather than a bullet or flying glass from a bullet, remember that the bullets at the scene will be recovered and examined, Trump’s ear injury has been examined by doctors, etc. The number of people who would need to be in on the conspiracy to avoid it being revealed is implausibly large.
9Slipstream is right about carbines. I believe in the “Old West” cowards had their ears shot off as a badge of shame.
What took a true patriot so long to attempt to take out the trash? Pennsylvania voter records list the shooter as a magat.
10Does Cpl Bonespurs award hisself a Purple Heart to accompany the one given to him?
11I saw the shooter was identified by DNA and biometrics. At 20 years old, he would either have a criminal history or was in some branch of the military. If neither, how could he have been identified? My theory is he was hired by the Trump team, used to shoot a few rounds, and be sacrificed. As for Trump, he hears the first shot, ducks and grabs a red liquid substance and puts it on his ear, then stands up, fist pumps, and gets walked off the stage.
12We know magats won’t accept any sensible gun laws to protect children from assault weapons so don’t expect any miracles because their own ox has been gored.
13Well, if the round was a .223, then the bullet didn’t nick the ear. Flying glass makes sense.
Haven’t seen much information but rather than any political conspiracy, it looks like an Arthur Bremer.
14What? You don’t like my contribution? Fine, thank you, I won’t contribute anymore
15I doubt all of the false flag scenarios. It would take one hell of a shot to intentionally graze someone’s head. What is more likely is that if Trump had not switched from the right teleprompter to the left one at the critical moment, he’d have been hit in the face — probably between the eyes.
16Leave the conspiracy garbage for the MAGA crowd.
17The magat crowd is way ahead of you, RepubAnon….
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trumps-allies-quickly-respond-to-shooting-with-conspiracy-theories-attacks-on-political-enemies
18This lends credence to Nic k’s scenarios….
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/13/hill-republicans-trump-rally-shooting-00167995
19I’m sorry Nick. This is all too “Alex Jones-ish” for my taste.
20From Europe, today:
21https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13633139/ANDREW-NEIL-Donald-Trump-rise-occasion-hell-truly-unstoppable-danger-succumbs-anger.html
All fair points. The fact that there are nagging questions AND this benefits him does not equal conspiracy. That’s absolutely true. We do need those questions answered though.
22As an observer of the repeated footage of the “attack” my comment is that it was all staged.
23Because: A REAL “ASSASSIN” WOULD HAVE USED A SILENCER AND ONE BULLET; the “assassin” would not been seen by attendees prior to event; a wounded ear would HURT, not just look like stage blood applied by “victim”. The ear would bleed profusely; assassin would not fire warning shots prior to “missing” the target; and “victim” would be in pain and shock, not posing for camera and struggling with secret service to delay exit, so more photos with fist and bloody ear could be arranged!
Theatre!
I am curious as to why the FBI wants to build a profile of deceased shooter to determine any motives. Should be obvious the alleged shooter had easy access to weapon(s) designed to kill humans, the alleged targut is a lifelong criminal who deserved to be punished for crimes magats and the right wing ideologue heavy scotus refuse to hold him responsible. Both groups have coddled and protected him his entire life.
24Thoughts and prayers.
25Thoughts and prayers.
Mostly off topic, but since you mentioned it: I recognize the Gatsby reference but never twigged that Nick Carraway was a pseudonym. I guess it makes sense since you’re employed in education.
26On topic: My initial thoughts were worse but I agree with your point that it shows the level of our state of politics. I have to own my part but doubt Trump and the majority of the MAGAs ever will.
Thanks Nick! Also …
Scenario #4
tRump’s malignant narcissistic head got to big and he kept demanding, errr asking, Putin for more money. Putin didn’t like it and fired a shot across tRump’s bow to remind him who’s boss.
Scenario #5
God’s wrath for tRump cheating on his wives and not repenting. The Pat Robertson effect.
27Two points I would like to make:
1) How the hell did the shooter get onto the rooftop 150 yards away from Trump in the first place? I thought our vaunted Secret Service was better than that.
2) No matter the motive, Trump won the election with this “attempt”. Just be thankful it was a white nerdy boy instead of a Hispanic trans-woman. MAGA would have set fire to the nation.
28Harry Eagar 2 14
Gummint says 5.56 mm. Functionally a .223.
Very high velocity, designed to shock the victim. If one of those had hit trump’s ear, it would have mangled it.
29Bullets for M-16 were designed to ricocchet inside human body and destroy massive amounts of tissue/organs. Did not sound compatible with Geneva Convention rules for cobat.
30SS noted rooftop as a potential danger before rally and yet gunman still accessed area during speech.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-rally-shooting-secret-service-identified-rooftop-security-flaw-rcna161783
31Tots and pears..
I would have thought that the Secret Service would employ surveillance helicopters equipped with super optical and infrared imaging equipment to scan and examine every square millimeter around these high value venues.
32Some armed ahole on a rooftop would be very obvious.
Sandridge,
Or, hey, a $800 drone? My search and rescue team uses them; it can’t be too hard for the Secret Service.
33Slipstream@33,
34Eggsactly, you’d think that aerial surveillance would be just a given SOP in almost all of the SS protective ops.
Drones and helicopters, as suited for the tasks.
Some of the commenters hear seem to be saying taking out the trash with extreme prejudice is a bad thing.
Secret Service is blaming local police for failing to stop shooter as they were assigned that segment of the perimeter.
35There was a story yesterday that a local police person saw the gunman before the shooting and retreated ala Uvalde.
36e platypus onion @35, Like all things tRumpian, it washes out as a major clusterfuck..
I’m for TWEP all of ’em..
37Interesting Jeff Tiedrich article today-
https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/connecting-some-weird-dots-did-the?r=2di6n7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Hmmm?
38