Trump’s Historic Record-Breakingly Weak Lead
As crazy as the snacilbupeR race is, it’s not, really. If you replaced all their names with letters – candidate A, candidate B etc – any rational observer would say that, based on the trends and the polls, candidate A with 316 delegates is well on his way to becoming the party nominee for President.
Except, nobody in the Party LIKES candidate A. Also, nobody likes candidate B very much, the only other guy who has won a few. Candidate C, who won Minnesota in the middle of last night, everyone likes simply by virtue of that fact that’s he’s not B, and most emphatically not A. He’s also not the most adroit politician to ever execute an aqualunge, but candidates D and E are less adroit still.
So what this leaves us is Trump, with one quarter of the votes needed to win the nomination, being treated as a pariah by the very party for whom he is their standard bearer. As party leaders try to find an alley door to shove him out of, all his voters just keep voting for him. BUT: they rarely raise him above 40% in a race, and he racked up all those Super Tuesday wins while still failing to achieve a majority in a single race. No Republican has, yet, in 2016, and that’s a record.
Never in the history of Republican Primaries have we gone through Super Tuesday without several – sometimes many – state races won with a majority of votes. They number in the dozens going back through 1984, when Super Tuesday was invented, and continue back through early primaries in the 1970s, when the modern primary system came to be. Two candidates, 3 candidates, 4 candidates, even 5 valid candidates gaining votes early on in races such as this, have always produced winners – sometimes several – who broke the 50% mark.
Here are the number of Republican contested primaries (or caucuses) won with >50% of the vote, by year, thru Super Tuesday of each contest:
|
Year |
Primaries |
Year |
Primaries |
|
|
1988 |
17 |
2008 |
11 |
|
|
1996 |
11 |
2012 |
5 |
|
|
2000 |
19 |
2016 |
0 |
Note: 1984 and 2004 were left out because they were virtually uncontested incumbents.
So while, on the one hand, it may appear that Republicans are denying Trump true front-runner status, on the other hand, there’s never been a front-runner who deserved it less.
~Primo
When ‘second’ or ‘third’ is a win and Ayatollah Ted takes Alaska is the new snacilbupeR math. Although, that Alaska “win” was more a swipe at $carah Palin for endorsing Donnie Drumpf.
While candidate Drumpf is a horrific thought, Loathsome Ted and RU-BO are worse in many aspects. As for ALEC Ksuchasheis, hope Ohio doesn’t buy that new calm and moderate facade of his.
1While Trump — er, Candidate A — may not be getting a flat majority in the primary states he wins, it’s not going to matter much after mid-March when the GOP primaries switch from apportioned delegates to winner-take-all. Getting 37% of the vote is sufficient to rake in all the chips, if your opponents are polling in the 10s and 20s.
And it’s naive to think that people who are voting for Candidates B, C, D, and E now are going to all unify behind one of those four in an effort to beat Candidate A. Some will jump on the Candidate A train, and others will just stay home.
2This is like watching a bullfight. I know how it will end, but I want to see some blood before it is over.
3Give the liberal media credit. Somehow,someway,back in 1920 they figured out Donald Trump would run for Potus in 2016, so they took it upon themselves to find a person with Trump’s dad’s name and home address arrested at a kkk rally so they could use that info to harass Trump as he runs from his white supremacist buddies in 2016 presidential election.
Woodie Guthrie remarked about old manTrump’s love of blacks in denying them housing. http://theconversation.com/woody-guthrie-old-man-trump-and-a-real-estate-empires-racist-foundations-53026
4Primo, your analysis gives me hope that, although The Orange One is sweeping up the Republican detritus, that does not translate into an ability to succeed in the general election among (hopefully) rational voters.
5Going way back but not too far, now, zackly WHY is Cruz called a Texan? He sprung fully growed into the forehead of the Koch bros. Where’d they find him? Okay, for some reason he lives, or at least his wife and little girls live, in Houston or thereabouts. I musta known that at one point. I mean we all know he was born to a lady in Canada. Did she move to Texas or just leave him in a basket at the gas station? I’m not exactly getting into the birther argument. I’m just tryin’ to remember. Oh! I shoulda asked Trump. He’d know….
6Marge Wood with the Pallas Athene shout out! It was one of those odd coincidences I was thinking of her a few minutes ago. E.A.Poe’s Raven sat “on the pallid bust of Pallas perched above my chamber door” because I saw the new hashtag #NEVERTRUMP. he he he
7Too bad Trump didn’t have this guy helping him:http://www.occupydemocrats.com/2016/03/02/here-are-the-craziest-nastiest-and-most-offensive-tweets-from-the-newest-texas-republican-ch
8There is some really funny stuff going around twitter and elsewhere about the Outlaw Jersey Whale standing behind Drumpf last night. I watched it and thought OJW looked odd, miserable, badly constipated. Wapo writer Alexandra Petri wrote an article that’s really funny about his “wordless scream”. It’s here:
https://goo.gl/ioqUJH
This hilarious observation was in the Comments.
“A hot air balloon hasn’t crashed and burned this badly in New Jersey since 1937 …”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!! OMG, it’s hysterical!!!
9I’m hearing rumors that several polling places had Rubio votes substituted for Trump and Trump votes substituted for Rubio on the voting machines. This really wouldn’t surprise me since the only way the repubes can win is to cheat.
10epo, that is an excellent link to the uber-slimy Drumpf cabal. Ugh. Nasty sociopaths.
Kate, repubes? I like it.
11The GOP has done a great job teaching their base to hate, hate, hate government.
Now Trump, a born-rich business man, is trouncing both Senator Cruz and Senator Rubio, Repubs who work in government. (Well, Rubio may work when he bothers to show up.)
To date the GOP ‘leadership’ has failed to get the connection.
12Much as I cannot stand Trump, I feel queasy every time Cruz
13comes on my TV, he has really exceeded all others in
how much hate he can manufacture in me.
I think he lies every time he opens his mouth, and that
horrible voice drives me insane.
I’m praying he will go back to Canada or Cuba with his crazy daddy and be for ever forgotten.
Ralph Wiggam-you asked for a bullfight and now you got one. Graphic photo (sorry no blood). Maybe this is the way to shut Trump up. 🙂 My humblest apologies to the bull for invoking Trump’s name.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1280469/Spanish-bullfighter-gored-Matador-Julio-Aparicio-narrowly-escapes-death.html
14That Wapo writer took the long way around Christie’s barn to say that Trump had beans for dinner and Christie was the recipient of a natural gas attack delivered with great gusto. New Jersey beans sure work up a blow,Debbo.
15Debbo,
Re-pubic-ans, because most of the issues they’re concerned about are below the waist. This probably should include guns as well.
16Okay. Here’s a theory. Trump gets most delegates but no win for the nomination. RNC gets a brokered convention. Rubio or Cruz gets picked. Trump goes off in a huff as independent splitting the R vote. Trump becomes Prez because Dem voters are TOO DAMNED LAZY TO GET OFF THEIR BUTTS AND VOTE!!! Or something like that.
17True Kate. I always wonder about people so obsessed with sex. They scare me a little.
18