Tight As A Tick
Here on the Left Coast there is a storm brewing in several congressional districts that threatens to turn the congressional red-blue balance on its ear.
As a denizen of CD-41, one of these races is of high interest to me. A longtime member of Congress, Ken Calvert has comfortably weathered fifteen challenges from Democratic opponents. But in 2022, Calvert came so close to defeat that he could hear the bullet whizz past his ear.
Too soon?
This was because of the 2021 redistricting which put Calvert in a newly redrawn CD-41 which now includes what has been called (but not by me, no way) “the gayest city in California“.
In 2022, Calvert edged his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Attorney Will Rollins by a mere 11,100 votes. That’s fewer votes than TFG needed from Georgia Governor Kemp in 2020.
But now I am learning that, with the switcheroo that replaced Joe Biden with Kamala Harris at the top of the ballot, Rollins, who is repeating his run at replacing Calvert in this year’s contest, has an even better chance to knock over the MAGA-prone Republican.
With Harris now at the top of the ballot, new polls are showing a trend that 7 Republican congressmen in California are now eying: Harris polls 8 points higher against TFG than Biden did among California Hispanic voters.
Should this continue down ballot, Calvert will experience (excuse me for being born in a less cultivated era) a veritible Mexican Standoff.
By the numbers, CD-41 had 237,000 voting participants in 2022, and the U.S. Census reports that residents of CD-41 are 38% Hispanic. If voting percentages are in the same futbol stadium, this means that there were 90,000 Hispanics that voted in the mid term election. Assuming an 8% shift in their voting, this means that about 7,500 more Hispanic votes will be cast for Rollins this year.
That cuts Calvert’s 2022 edge down to 3,600 votes.
I don’t expect an increase in the LGBTQIA+ vote for Rollins (who is openly gay) this year because they all hate Calvert with the same passion that Calvert believes they are all pedophiles. So, no help from Palm Springs.
This election is still going to be “tight as a tick” as they say, but with the 8% Hispanic bump, plus the additional voters awakened by decisions by a criminally unethical Supreme Court, plus the gravitas of a Presidential (as opposed to a mid-term) election, Congressman Calvert should probably be honing his retirement plans.
He needs a nice (hopefully) long rest.
Half Empty, I’ve never heard “tight as a tick” used to mean close, as in “the election will be close.” In my experience, it means either drunk or miserly. Others may like to weigh in on that.
1Thanks, informative. C
2At least you have a competitive district. My old district was represented by Devin Nunes then Kevin McCarthy. Both resigned early forcing special elections and I’m now represented by a guy from McCarthy’s home town I’ve never heard of and lives nowhere near me. Since redistricting in 2021 my new district, CD-20, looks like a gerrymandered mess and is the most conservative district in California with a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of R+16. Democrats don’t even run candidates here anymore. Five minutes away on the other side of the freeway lies CD-21 with Democratic reps since the 90s and a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of D+9. The voter enacted California Citizens Redistricting Commission was supposed to create more competitive districts but it looks more like the parties gave each other safe seats.
3Don’t think I’ve got “tight as a tick” in my lexicon, but my “full as a tick” has always meant “near bustin’ “, so I could use “tight as a tick” this way w/o blinking.
4Not to go off on a tangent, has anyone heard “Tighter than Dick’s hatband”?
5