Everything Changed on Saturday

July 15, 2024 By: El Jefe Category: 2024 Election

On Saturday evening at 6:11 pm local time, the 2024 campaign effectively ended.  When a 20 year old gunman took potshots (literally) at TFG which grazed him, wounded two others, and killed another, the ground shifted under our feet, swinging the election in his direction.  Since that moment, TFG has pivoted to a laughable “unity” message and has uncharacteristically embargoed all communication coming from the campaign to tightly control that message.  He’s fund raising on the assassination attempt and claims he’s rewriting his speech to emphasized “unity”.  His talking heads are blaming political rhetoric from Biden and Democrats for the violence, completely ignoring the open sewer of hate speech and incitement to violence that has spewed out of TFG’s mouth for well over a decade.

To add to his strength in the polls, his handpicked judge in the Mar a Lago documents case DISMISSED the entire case a few hours ago, ruling that special prosecutor Jack Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional.  Once again, her ruling flies in the face of decades of judicial precedence, clearly and openly violating her oath of office to defend the Constitution and the rule of law in order to protect her benefactor. This final ruling by Cannon is certainly a nice flourish to complete her audition as TFG’s next SCOTUS nominee.

I have to say that Failed Assassination Attempt at an Outdoor Rally was not on my 2024 election year Bingo card.  TFG is the luckiest son of a bitch on the planet.  While he has amassed a tsunami of evil transgressions including fraudulent business practices, racists policies, sexual assault, self aggrandizement, violations of state and federal election laws, insurrection, incitement to violence, extortion, and bribery, nothing has ever really stuck to him.  Now he’s survived an assassination attempt, and even Aileen Cannon timed her dismissal of the felony charges for stealing classified documents to coincide with the opening of the Republican Convention Coronation in Milwaukee today.

I say all this as background for my conclusion that this election is over.  Biden was, and still is, in serious trouble.  His negatives are terrible and he’s trailing TFG in all of the battleground states.  Like it our not, he’s been boxed in, and every measure is going TFG’s way.   I know that I’ve pissed off a lot of Salon customers in the last week calling for Biden to step aside, but now I believe that even doing that won’t help.  All of the momentum is in TFG’s direction, and this election now feels a lot like 2004 and 2016.  In 2004 GWB/Cheney started a war to get re-elected after 9/11 sinking Kerry’s bid.  In 2016 TFG fabricated a dark dystopian image of a crime-ridden country in decline being overrun by dark-skinned terrorists pouring over the border.  He’s banged on the this drum for almost 10 years now, and the assassination attempt has played right into his mythology to great effect.  Those not paying attention to the facts will be swept up in his new assassination attempt “unification” message and fall for it, not realizing the fact that TFG and his screaming heads are the ones who created this mythology that has been tearing the country apart for over a decade.  The false “both sides do it” argument has become embedded in our political DNA now for years.

I believe the 2024 election result will not be good.  Not only do we stand to lose the White House, which is terrifying, but we also stand to lose both the House and the Senate.  With the SCOTUS already lost, we’re entering into a dark future that threatens the very fabric of our country.  With no guardrails or rule of law to stop him, I predict TFG’s  “unification” message will go down the shitter right after the election when the convicted felon and his goons will take over.

This is not good.

 

It’s Just Math…

July 13, 2024 By: El Jefe Category: 2024 Election

The wailing and gnashing of teeth over calls for Biden to end his candidacy is 2016 all over again.  I know many Salon customers hate it when I say it, but it’s true.  Hillary was a terrible candidate.  And, just like in 2016, I didn’t say unqualified, I said terrible candidate.  She didn’t listen to local party operatives, walled herself off from everyone who disagreed with her, and ignored calls for her to emphasize battleground states like Michigan believing that she had the election sewed up.  And we all know what happened.  Did Comey and Russian meddling hurt?  Absolutely, but it shouldn’t have been that close for that to have a material effect.  Those are facts that we all knew before the election, yet Hillary and party leaders ignored all the flashing red lights and handed the White House to TFG.

The same goddam thing is happening again with Biden loyalists and the base.  “Stay the course!” “Don’t change horses!” “The voters have spoken!” “If we change candidates, we’re going to lose like Humphrey!” “The Republicans will sue to keep a new candidate off the ballots!”  So on and so forth.  Here are the facts – THE ELECTION IS ALREADY LOST.  Only a miracle, or a thoughtful change, can save it.  Here are the battleground numbers as of TODAY:

TFG has a solid lead in every single battleground state and that’s unlikely to change.  During his press conference a couple of nights ago, Biden said no poll shows he’s losing.  They’re ALL showing he’s losing. Biden either lied, or, more likely, hasn’t been shown these polls.  It’s just math.

Yes, yes, we all know that TFG is a lying gasbag, shitbag, convicted felon, rapist, and every other pejorative adjective you can summon.  But that doesn’t mean a goddam thing to his voters.  In fact, they LOVE that he’s a lying gasbag and convicted felon as it plays into his Earth II narrative that he’s none of those things, but rather a victim of persecution by the “deep state”.  We’re not dealing with facts here folks, we dealing with people who don’t have a grip on reality.  THAT is reality.

While we’re at it, let’s talk about all the handwringing over Republicans suing to keep the Dems from “changing candidates on state ballots”.   First, there are no goddam ballots to change.  Biden, and TFG, for that matter are not the nominees for president.  There ARE no ballots, at least yet.  That doesn’t happen until AFTER the conventions.  Even then, there are mechanisms to change candidates, but that’s not what we’re talking about.  We’re talking about replacing Biden before or during the convention.  Suing to keep a new candidate off state ballots is a Republican talking point started by the Heritage Foundation (yes, that Heritage Foundation).  Like everything else coming out of the Heritage Foundation, it’s bullshit, so stop repeating it, please.  Here’s why.

Lastly, those of us calling for Biden to step aside are not “dividing the party” or “serving Republicans”.  Republicans, including TFG are terrified that the Dems use their heads and change candidates to a dynamic new candidate.  They LOVE running against Biden because they’re looking at the same numbers I am.  The numbers with any other major candidate are worse for TFG.

In short, every number points to a loss if Biden stays on the ticket.  Also, it increases greatly the chances of losing both the House and the Senate at the same time.  Those are inconvenient facts.  Ignoring those facts will lead to another TFG term in the White House and we should all be terrified of that.

A referendum on the red hat

April 05, 2024 By: Nick Carraway Category: Uncategorized

I’ve done a couple of things I shouldn’t have. I decided to share a meme I saw on social media on my own Facebook wall. Instead of going into a long-winded explanation I thought I would just show you below. Consider it a bonus cartoon for the day.

Of course, my conservative friends and family were up in arms. The most hilarious exchange came when a former classmate uttered that you know who the bigots are based on who is sporting Biden gear. I naturally pointed out that we don’t buy Biden swag. We don’t buy swag for any politician because we aren’t a cult. Biden could sell bibles, tee-shirts, hats, action figures, shoes, fake degrees, steaks, Vodka, and any other assorted nonsense with his name on it. No one would buy it anyway because our allegiance is to the country and to ideas.

Be that as it may, I thought I would offer a few words on the red hat that our patrons could borrow when talking with their conservative friends, coworkers, and family members. When asking whether a red hat makes you a bigot or not you should consider the very basics. If you are suggesting that you want to “make America great again” then you are suggesting that America is no longer great. So, exactly when was it great? What were the precipitating steps and actions that caused it to no longer to be great? I’d imagine many of those folks would be stuck by some of the verbiage used there, so you might give them a few minutes to collect their thoughts or you might treat them as a hostile witness.

I imagine many of them (if they are older) are thinking of when they were young and everyone “knew their place.” If they are actually young then they are longing for the days their parents or grandparents described. Immediately, two things come to mind. First, memory is a tricky thing. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget. If we are unhappy now then we likely remember the past more fondly. This belies the truth because if we are unhappy now then we were likely unhappy then. Secondly, even if life were good for us we have to come to grips with the fact that it was worse for others. So, saying you want life to return to what it was then you are either choosing to ignore that little fact or you are actively bathing in it. My guess for most of those folks is the latter.

Simply put, it is a backwards looking sentiment. I don’t want to look backwards. For one, life quite literally sucked for large groups of people. Even if I could say it was good for me then I would have to acknowledge that conditions are different enough to where that life is impossible to replicate. Of course, there I go again with the big words. I finally went off on a different discussion with a so-called “thinking conservative”. He prattled on and on about how gun control wouldn’t work and so I literally shouted, “then make a suggestion!” That’s the point, They don’t have any. Their platform has literally become, “whatever THAT guy says” and THAT guy doesn’t have any ideas. He never did. We can make this a referendum about the man, but one of the ways to win is to simply point out that THEY have no answers for the problems they are highlighting. They just have grievance. They want to prevent US from successfully passing any of our own suggestions. So, I would say it is put up or shut up time. If you want that mythical great past you long for then it is high time to tell us exactly how we get back there. Spell it out for us. Give us a step by step blueprint. Of course, they don’t want to do that because they know the majority doesn’t think that way. It’s a lot easier just to complain.

It’s Time: Jail Trump

March 31, 2024 By: El Jefe Category: Criminal, Domestic Terrorists, Fascism, Sedition, Trump

Enough is enough.  TFG, who has done, and continues to do more to destroy our country than anyone in US history, should have his bail revoked and jailed until trial.  Not only has he made fascism and authoritarianism acceptable in polite society, he is intentionally stepping over the limits of the law by defaming and threatening judges, their staffs, prosecutors, and witnesses.  Worse, he regularly defames their families with intensely personal and childish attacks insulting everything from their looks to their politics, which are definitely off limits and none of his fucking business.

Last week, almost immediately after NY judge Juan Merchan, who’s presiding over TFG’s hush money case, imposed a limited gag order against him, he attacked the judge’s 30 something year old daughter, calling her a “Trump hater”, among other vile accusations.  Yesterday, he posted a video of a pickup truck festooned with Trump flags including a tailgate mural of Biden hogtied in the bed of the truck.  The post went viral instantly, blowing up the internet.  Contrary to normal conduct, his lawyers are actively enabling this behavior by filing a continuous stream of idiotic motions demanding that TFG be given special rights because being forced to not threaten others is required because doing so is “election interference” and a violation of his “First Amendment rights”.

TFG regularly and loudly complains that he’s being singled out while falsely claiming that Biden is behind all the prosecutions, including the state cases.  That’s all bullshit, of course, except for the being singled out part; but it’s not like he says.  He is definitely being singled out, allowed WHILE ON BAIL to freely travel, use social media to attack his perceived enemies, shoot off his mouth, spread vicious lies about witnesses, attorneys, judges, and their families, and generally be a 24 karat gold asshole.  No other indicted felon on bail would be allowed to do anything close to what he does on a daily basis.  Yesterday, former federal prosecutor Joyce Vance said that if anyone else had posted a picture of Biden being kidnapped the Secret Service would be knocking on that individual’s door within hours.  TFG gets a pass because he’s, well, TFG.  She also said this about TFG conduct:

“Actions have consequences. Judges have the ability to compel good behavior from defendants on bond pending trial in their court. They can go so far as taking away their guns once they’re indicted or prevent them from contacting and threatening witnesses and victims. They should tell him he can’t threaten the President of the United States. It’s time for the courts to stop bending over backward to protect Trump. He’s entitled to all the constitutional protections any other criminal defendant receives, but he’s not entitled to more.”

TFG is a threat to the nation, to individuals personally, and to the rule of law.  And we know why he’s doing what he’s doing – he’s trying to run out the clock to the election, AND is working hard to intimidate witnesses and the jury pool in 4 different jurisdictions.  It’s simply go to stop.  As Vance says, the courts are bending over backwards to accommodate his behavior.  Judge Cannon is actually in the bag for him as well as more than a few of SCOTUS justices.  It’s up to the state or federal judges to take action.

Take custody of this shitbag and confiscate his phone.  Let him sit in jail wearing an orange jumpsuit until his trials.  If they do that, I’ll guarantee his lawyers will then stop the delaying tactics.  Time to return to the rule of law.  Jail him. NOW.

Third Party Nonsense

March 18, 2024 By: Nick Carraway Category: Uncategorized

I start off hating this argument that I am about to make. You hear people say that this election is the most important in our nation’s history. Of course, that’s always true until the next one. Hyperbole doesn’t do anyone any good. It conjures up images of a Shepard boy clearing his throat about some wolf he may have seen.

However, it is impossible to ignore the rhetoric. The GOP nominee for president of the United States is predicting a bloodbath if he loses. We can try as hard as we can to normalize this. He is just a raving lunatic. He is just joking. He is speaking figuratively and nothing he says is to be taken seriously. He really didn’t say it and if he said he didn’t really mean it. Even if he did mean it who cares?

We’ve seen this all before and we saw January 6th. Whether or not he is really serious doesn’t even matter at this point. He’s activated hundreds if not thousands of people to not only believe the words he is saying, but also do something about it. This is nut crunching time folks. If we want to keep democracy around we have to defeat this man and defeat him soundly.

In the backdrop we have the burgeoning presidential runs or RFK Jr., Cornel West, and whatever No Labels wants to throw up there. We should talk for a minute about what third party candidates are there to do. Usually they are there because there is dissatisfaction with the two major parties. It can come down to the platforms or the candidates themselves.

In this case, you have two old men that weren’t particularly popular last time that are running again. Very few people wanted this matchup again. Yet, here we are. However, we need to be very clear about what third party candidates do. They don’t win. They’ve never won and they likely never will win. They do two things. They syphon votes from one or both of the major parties and they get at least one of the major parties to adopt some of their policy planks.

RFK is known for two things. He’s a Kennedy and he’s anti=vax. Maybe Trump adapts the second plank but RFK isn’t likely to siphon votes from Trump. Biden is not adopting an anti-vax stance anytime soon. West doesn’t have any major policy initiatives that we know of. His is more of a protest run based on dissatisfaction with the two major parties.

Under normal circumstances that would be fine. Yet, that is calling for us to normalize Trump. We can’t. We shouldn’t. The press has been carrying that water for over eight years probably because Trump is good for business. Outrage is good for business. It creates page views, likes, comments, and sells ad space. Yet, Trump has not been artful about where this is going. He is openly broadcasting it at this point.

Maybe he is playing ten dimensional chess. Maybe he has done a thorough analysis of the electorate and the press environment and determined that this is the best way to position himself to gain power. Maybe he is just a damn lucky fool that stumbled into this because no one wants to be the bad guy and tell him no. That dirty job goes to the American people.

We start with Kennedy, West, and No Labels. I don’t know what you think you are doing. Maybe you think you are representing a portion of the electorate that is dissatisfied with the choices they have. Maybe you think you are raising issues neither major party is raising. Maybe you are a bought and sold stooge for the Russians or Trump himself. Whether your motives be pure or sinister (or somewhere in between) it doesn’t matter. You need to bow out and you need to bow out now. Let that son of a bitch be dead and buried and then you can tilt at your windmills.

What can we learn from all of this?

March 16, 2024 By: Nick Carraway Category: Uncategorized

The GOP is dead. If you think that’s hyperbole or you think I am making that up we should heed the words of Donald Trump Jr. Obviously the name still exists. People will carry the title in the halls of Congress, state legislatures, school boards, and city councils. Still, make no mistake. It is very much dead.

Listen long enough to the kid’s thoughts you get the idea that they think this is a good thing. In addition to the takeover of the RNC, there have been whispers that he wants to drive all non-MAGA Republicans out of the party. I’m not sure what that makes the Republican party because the platform has become the man. I’m not exactly certain what that means because he doesn’t know what it means.

This is not really new ground, but should be the backdrop of where we should go from here. Yes, he absolutely needs to be defeated and possibly thrown in jail. I say possibly because I just don’t see it happening. Some people have the knack for avoiding responsibility. Maybe everything catches up with him if he loses in November.

The question is what to do after that. What have we learned? Can the GOP be rebuilt or will a new center-right party emerge in its ashes? Either way, all of us should reckon with how an evil and unfit man could advance that far in American politics. Sure, Democrats can call this a Republican problem but it is really an American one. If a similar charismatic leader that promised victory and power emerged on the left could the Democrats resist them if he or she were unfit?

We must contend with a few inconvenient facts. The main one is that the last eight or nine years has made us collectively worse. There can be no denying this. We have become a more hateful people. Whether we hate him or the people that he hates, we are a more hateful people. A large part of this is owning our own role in this cycle of hate.

I see it on social media as I offer my opinion on my public wall and see it devolve into a pissing match between liberals and conservatives. I am either wittingly or unwittingly egging this on by commenting in the first place. Even though my words haven’t been hateful, a small part of me responds in glee when I see my friends roast someone I don’t agree with.

Are they really horrible people or do we just have a difference of opinion? The answer is not so simple. I think the words, deeds, and aura of this man has brought the worst out in people. Those feelings were always there. Those opinions were always there. He just made it okay. People that do and say horrible things are at least on the road to being horrible . There is always redemption and there is always forgiveness, but we also have to be very honest about what we are dealing with.

Yet, there are also folks that are good and decent people that simply hold conservative viewpoints. There are good and decent people that hold liberal or progressive viewpoints. The way through the fog is identifying the difference. Can we identify decency in those we disagree with? In some cases that decency simply is not there. We cannot allow indecent people anywhere near leadership. It is not fair to say that conservative people are all indecent, but it seems like a majority of indecent people are conservative. It will take all of us to get this ship back in order. We have to realize that decency is more important than party.