Hold off on the popcorn
As everyone likely already knows, Matt Gaetz’s power play to get Kevin McCarthy ousted as speaker worked. McCarthy is no longer speaker. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina is the temporary speaker. What powers does he have? I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head. This has literally never happened before. A speaker of the house has never been ousted during a legislative session. Congratulations Kevin, I guess you’ve made history.
Some of my friends on the left are celebrating today. I can’t celebrate. Yes, the Republican party is a mess. Yes, this throws everything they are doing into chaos. Who the heck knows what happens to all of those sham investigations into Joe and Hunter Biden? Who knows how this might impact their oversight of things like the Justice Department and FBI? I literally cannot tell you if they are able to do anything at all.
When McCarthy went through all of those ballots to become speaker we were repeatedly told that no business could take place until a speaker was elected. Now, there is no speaker. So, do we go back to that state where we are waiting for a new speaker to be elected? Can McHenry conduct business until a new speaker is elected? How long is this all going to take?
These are questions I can’t answer. They are very basic questions. I was a political science major. I taught high school government for several years. These are the things my wife and daughter ask me when they don’t know the answer. These are the things I could tell them before. I can’t now. I honestly don’t know the answer. That by itself is frightening.
It might seem at first glance that the Republican party eating itself from the inside is a good moment for people on the left. I’d remind everyone that like that nothing ever happens in isolation. A dying animal lashes out all around them before they succumb to whatever is attacking them. It might be an actual law of physics or maybe Murphy’s Law, but these things are never completely isolated to themselves.
The House is done for the week. So, we won’t have a speaker until at least Monday. That means we have frittered more than a week away when the deal McCarthy brokered gave us 45 days. So far, we are talking pure mechanics and not even anything remotely political. I don’t have answers. Beyond the political ramifications, I can’t even address the basic ones. Sure, there are people that study this. There are people that probably know more than the folks actually doing it. It’s not like I am the Grand Pubha of all things political. It’s just disjarring not to know the answers.
Of course, the political ramifications are next level in terms of anxiety. Who will be the next speaker? Will it be someone more moderate or will the Freedom Caucus somehow take the entire chamber hostage? Are we looking at a speaker like Jim Jordan? These are things no one can answer right now. Even if we could we couldn’t tell you what it would all mean for everything happening over the next year and a half. This is why I’m not celebrating this. I literally do not know what’s happening next and no one else does either. Kevin McCarthy was a lying scumbag and he did not have a discernable backbone. Yet, I can’t even begin to guess on whether the next guy (assuming it is a man and not Marjorie Taylor Greene) will be better or worse. Put the popcorn away folks. This is no time to celebrate.