Every year, the Eurasia Group, a political risk management and consulting group, issues its report on the top ten global risks of international crisis.  This year’s report is profoundly disturbing, especially the largest risk it identifies.  Who is it? Is it Iran? Saudi Arabia? Russia?  Nope.  It’s the US and its broken political system.  Before we talk about this, let’s look at all ten:

1. Delegitimizing of our elections in US.
2. The decoupling of US and China technology cooperation.
3. US/China relations.
4. Multi-National Corporations in conflict with emerging nation/states.
5. Upheaval in India as social policies are causing economic downturns
6. Geopolitical influence of Europe as pushes back against the US and China.
7. Politics vs economics in climate change.
8. US policies toward Shia led nations.
9. Discontent in Latin America.
10. Turkey – pretty much everything.

These risks are all disturbing and obvious to geopolitical observers, but the first risk is scary in that it recognizes the shambles our own political system is in.  It talks about how Trump is greatly worsening the situation through his immoral and illegal behavior, but expresses great concern that he has already delegitimized the 2020 election by claiming that if he loses it’s because the election was “rigged”.  If he wins, the majority of Americans will believe it was rigged the other way (with the help of the Republicans and the Russians) and many won’t accept the result.  It is a lose-lose situation, and with Republicans enabling and protecting Trump, the crisis is unavoidable, especially since they’ll acquit him in the Senate trial emboldening him more if that’s even possible.  I mean, after all, he’s now announced that the only way he’s going to communicate with Congress is through Twitter.  Jesus.

None of this will end well, even in the remote chance that by some miracle he’s removed from office.