The secret to all demagogues is fear. That shouldn’t be a revelation. Fear is a powerful motivator. There are a number of people that are afraid of any number of things. It usually comes down to an us versus them situation. The them just changes depending on who you are talking to. It could be all of the immigrants pouring over the border with drugs, mayhem, and the ability to work for cheaper wages. It could be the LGTBQ+ community as it seems to grow by the minute. It could be racial or ethnic minorities that seem to want more and more things. It could be women and their desire for bodily autonomy and equal rights. It could be the so-called woke mob that seems to want to indoctrinate our kids with whatever nonsense they have. I could go on and on.

When we see terms like liberty and freedom being misappropriated we see this and exactly this going on. People are afraid THEIR freedom will go away because more of THEM are appearing in their lives. When you are being bombarded daily about invasions and mobs of woke people then you think your rights and your freedoms are being threatened. Therefore, it becomes paramount that you pass laws that protect your way of life by limiting those other ways of life.

This is how demagoguery works. Someone takes those fears and absorbs them like some kind of evil antibacterial cream they can rub into the body politic. They rail against those people. They hate those people. They promise to fight for you and your values. They promise that those other people (whoever they may be) will never succeed in changing your way of life.

So, we get to the part of constructive suggestions. I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. The lunatic fringe has 35-40 percent fairly entrenched and ready to vote based on their fear. Trying to convince them otherwise is a waste of time. It is important to understand where they are coming from if only to navigate our relationships with them. If you know the motivation then you can tiptoe through conversations and family gatherings without too much incident. That is of course unless you enjoy the fireworks.

The key group is not the right or the left. The key group are the people we might label as the “I don’t cares.” I’m not calling them undecided voters anymore. They rarely vote because they don’t see the relevance to them. They are unengaged by their own choice. They see this as a both sides are corrupt kind of deal. So, the key thing is making them see the distinct difference between what both sides view as freedom. How do we define freedom? What realistic limits do we set on freedom and why? Most importantly, how does it impact you?

The key is in identifying who these folks are and targeting them with repeated messaging. It is about bodily autonomy and not just abortion. It is about what they want to censure next and not just a few books in the library. It is about what will happen to you if THEY deem you as unfit. Are these fear tactics? Sure they are. We should be afraid and we need to make sure everyone sees what it at stake.

Every year, the Eurasia Group, a political risk management and consulting group, issues its report on the top ten global risks of international crisis.  This year’s report is profoundly disturbing, especially the largest risk it identifies.  Who is it? Is it Iran? Saudi Arabia? Russia?  Nope.  It’s the US and its broken political system.  Before we talk about this, let’s look at all ten:

1. Delegitimizing of our elections in US.
2. The decoupling of US and China technology cooperation.
3. US/China relations.
4. Multi-National Corporations in conflict with emerging nation/states.
5. Upheaval in India as social policies are causing economic downturns
6. Geopolitical influence of Europe as pushes back against the US and China.
7. Politics vs economics in climate change.
8. US policies toward Shia led nations.
9. Discontent in Latin America.
10. Turkey – pretty much everything.

These risks are all disturbing and obvious to geopolitical observers, but the first risk is scary in that it recognizes the shambles our own political system is in.  It talks about how Trump is greatly worsening the situation through his immoral and illegal behavior, but expresses great concern that he has already delegitimized the 2020 election by claiming that if he loses it’s because the election was “rigged”.  If he wins, the majority of Americans will believe it was rigged the other way (with the help of the Republicans and the Russians) and many won’t accept the result.  It is a lose-lose situation, and with Republicans enabling and protecting Trump, the crisis is unavoidable, especially since they’ll acquit him in the Senate trial emboldening him more if that’s even possible.  I mean, after all, he’s now announced that the only way he’s going to communicate with Congress is through Twitter.  Jesus.

None of this will end well, even in the remote chance that by some miracle he’s removed from office.

I believe most thoughtful Americans are more than a little concerned that, should Trump lose the election in 2020 he would refuse to concede and vacate office.  We’re getting a preview of that possibility right now in Israel as Netanyahu failed to get a majority of the votes last night in that country’s elections.  In his first speech after the election he refused to concede and blamed the media for biased coverage.  He went on to say that the Israeli government should be Zionist and not involve representatives of Arab heritage.  To be clear, 21% of the population of Israel are Arab muslims.

If you’re looking for a preview of 2020, here it is. Netanyahu just blamed his loss at the polls on the election.  Trump will do the same.  The only way Trump will ever leave office after an election defeat is to be be dragged out by his armpits.  Even his lawyer, Michael Cohen, said before Congress that if Trump loses the election next year that there will “never be a peaceful transition of power.”

It gives me cold chills thinking about it.