I scarcely have spent any time opining on Afghanistan. I certainly feel awful for the soldiers that have lost their lives in a quagmire that we all should have known was coming. What’s always peculiar is that we decry the ones most recently lost. Those are somehow more tragic. I suppose when you can see the finish line it is that much more bitter to come up short.

There is a clip from George W. Bush that has been making the rounds. It came from 2002 where he was describing past efforts in Afghanistan. He mentioned initial success followed by ultimate failure. It was hard to tell whether he was simply be ironic or if he had powers of clairvoyance.

This is a basic pattern of history that also goes along with a law of human behavior. For lack of a better term, I call it the law of sunken costs. I could be a jackass and simply say I made it up, but unlike certain ex-presidents, I’m almost certain someone before me has stumbled onto this concept. I’m certainly not taking credit for it either way.

Imagine you’ve bought a car. It’s a vintage car, but it hasn’t run in years. You think to yourself that with a little hard work and a little investment you could get the car running again. So, you pour hundreds of dollars into parts, but nothing seems to be working. Hundreds turn into thousands, but there’s no change in the prognosis.

We all know eventually we will run out of money. We all know eventually we will run out of time. We all know eventually we will run out of patience. We know all of these things and yet we continue to throw good money after bad. We do this because we are all thinking the same thing. We are thinking that we’ve invested far too much to give up now.

We do this in relationships. We do this with our time. We might do this at work with an employee that just doesn’t seem to get the job done. The psychological mechanisms at work are portable across the spectrum. It’s happened before in Vietnam and Korea. It’s happened before in Afghanistan itself with the Russians. In fact, we are a product of it here in the United States. The English fell prey to the same sunken cost syndrome.

This is a historical law. Occupying countries eventually leave. It is only a question of when and under what circumstances. I’m sure the Bush administration knew this day would come. They simply hoped for the best and hoped you wouldn’t remember that it was them that got us into this mess in the first place.

The current situation has millions of Americans blaming Joe Biden. There have been mistakes and hiccups to be sure, but I’m not sure how this thing was supposed to go. If Trump were still president it would be the same deal. Sure, we could say he shouldn’t have freed the prisoners. Sure, we can say Biden should expedite the red tape and get out more refugees. We can say a lot of things. This was always how this thing was going to go down.

Afghanistan is devolving into a world where religious extremists (that represent a minority of the people) have a stranglehold on the country at large. I have no idea what that’s like. That statement couldn’t possibly describe any other situation right under our nose. Let’s ignore that and just keep whistling past the graveyard.

We can continue to finger point at different administrations over the past 20 years. All of them deserve blame in this moment. All of them perpetuated this mess. All of them contributed to the sunken cost. No one is happy when more Americans lose their lives. There’s more than enough blame to go around.

The rightwing noise machine, along with the circular firing squad of Team Progressive, are united in criticizing Biden for withdrawing from Afghanistan and sticking to the plan as the government collapses, Afghan politicians flee the country, and the Taliban return to the violent and brutal regime they controlled when we ran them to the mountains in 2002.  As I write this, insurgents are entering Kabul and closing in on the airport where diplomatic personnel and military are trying to evacuate.  It’s without a doubt a total shitshow.

But, it’s not a surprise.  Whether the US withdrew from Afghanistan in 2003, 2013, or 2023, THE RESULT WAS GOING TO BE THE SAME.  Like everything else W and Cheney fucked up, they most certainly fucked up Afghanistan.  The noble chase of Bin Laden and Al Qaeda into the mountains to kill him was botched, and rather than chase him into Pakistan, Bush/Cheney thought it was a really good idea to convert a culture born before the Dark Ages to a liberal democracy.  It was stupid, and anyone who can read a history book knew it.  Afghanistan is a 1st century culture in a 21st century world that has repelled invasions for centuries. At the time of Bush/Cheney’s decision to occupy Afghanistan, some of us predicted exactly what is happening today.  Oh, we were shushed by those who “knew better”, but it didn’t take a diplomatic genius to understand that the US was never going to succeed where the Russians, the Brits, the Greeks, the Mongols, and other empires attempted, and ultimately failed, to accomplish over that last 2,000 years.

Don’t get me wrong; I abhor every death and injury that occurred during the attempted occupation of Afghanistan over the last 20 years, but I said it then and will say it again now that the US incursion into and occupation of Afghanistan was almost as big a blunder as the invasion of Iraq which destabilized the region handing control over to Iran.  As bad a guy as Saddam was, he was better than handing more Middle East power to Iran and Russia.  NOW, not only is Iran dominant in the region, Afghanistan is again in chaos. Add that to chaos in Iraq and Yemen, and that is most certainly a major league shitshow.

This is not Biden’s fault.  This is the fault of over 100 years of terrible Middle East policy compounded by Bush/Cheney’s empire building and Trump’s idiocy.  That is where the blame lay.  Biden’s trying to clean it up.