Schumer and Jeffries have had hard conversations with Biden in the last few days, using data that Biden is behind TFG and falling farther behind.  They’ve also told him that the money is drying up and that major donors are now withholding funding.  Adam Schiff, who is now running for Senate in California, also publicly called for Biden to step aside warning that the Dems could lose the Senate if he doesn’t.  Pelosi is also said to be working behind the scenes to let Biden down easy.  Other Dems have also talked to him and have described as delusional his belief that he’s either tied or leading TFG in the polls.  We’re starting to see cracks in his resolve, though, it’s now being reported that Biden said he’d drop out if a doctor told him he had a medical condition that would prevent him from doing his job.  At least that’s a start.

As a reality check for those who are still laboring under the illusion that Biden can win this, here’s Nate Silver’s latest analysis from earlier today:

Time to face facts; Biden’s candidacy is over, and the longer he waits to step aside, the more humiliating it will be for him.  The pressure is ratcheting up on a daily basis and there’s no sign it will weaken.  Today Schumer got the DNC to postpone a virtual nomination vote, which was an attempt to cram Biden down the delegates’ throats before they convened.   That vote won’t happen now until the first week of August, though it’s still scheduled before the convention.

We’re coming down to it.  I’ll be surprised if this tragic episode lasts much longer than sometime next week.  We’re long past time that this change should have been made.  The time is NOW.

There’s a lot of reporting that Biden is being shielded by his wife, Jill, and his close staff from the reality of polling numbers which, besides personal pride, is one of the reasons he is stubbornly hanging on.  To counter the effort to get him to step down, it’s now coming out that he’s going to propose an overhaul of the Supreme Court including an actual ethics policy and term limits.  It’s also being reported that he’s going to propose a Constitutional amendment to restate that the President is not immune from prosecution for criminal acts.

There’s not a chance in hell of any of these proposals seeing the light of day, especially with Fascist control of the House and many of the states.  BUT, it’s the right subject.  Biden is way too late, but THIS is a key issue, and a Hail Mary is about all he’s got left.  The SCOTUS is now bought and paid for by billionaires lead by Leonard Leo and it’s got to be fixed.  However, with today’s politics there is no quick fix, especially with the juggernaut created by Leo and his Federalist Society.  To make real change here, the People will have to overcome the do-nothing inertia that paralyzes the Congress.  I’m not hopeful, at least at this point.

Maybe this effort by Biden will save his candidacy.  I don’t think it’s enough to overcome his negatives, but it’s something, especially if this proposal gains real traction that gives people some hope.

In other news, the DNC gave up on its attempt to ram through Biden’s nomination during July even before the convention rules committee meets.  Postponing this vote tells me that there are serious discussion going on behind closed about what to do about Biden.  This has got to be decided sooner rather than later.

On Saturday evening at 6:11 pm local time, the 2024 campaign effectively ended.  When a 20 year old gunman took potshots (literally) at TFG which grazed him, wounded two others, and killed another, the ground shifted under our feet, swinging the election in his direction.  Since that moment, TFG has pivoted to a laughable “unity” message and has uncharacteristically embargoed all communication coming from the campaign to tightly control that message.  He’s fund raising on the assassination attempt and claims he’s rewriting his speech to emphasized “unity”.  His talking heads are blaming political rhetoric from Biden and Democrats for the violence, completely ignoring the open sewer of hate speech and incitement to violence that has spewed out of TFG’s mouth for well over a decade.

To add to his strength in the polls, his handpicked judge in the Mar a Lago documents case DISMISSED the entire case a few hours ago, ruling that special prosecutor Jack Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional.  Once again, her ruling flies in the face of decades of judicial precedence, clearly and openly violating her oath of office to defend the Constitution and the rule of law in order to protect her benefactor. This final ruling by Cannon is certainly a nice flourish to complete her audition as TFG’s next SCOTUS nominee.

I have to say that Failed Assassination Attempt at an Outdoor Rally was not on my 2024 election year Bingo card.  TFG is the luckiest son of a bitch on the planet.  While he has amassed a tsunami of evil transgressions including fraudulent business practices, racists policies, sexual assault, self aggrandizement, violations of state and federal election laws, insurrection, incitement to violence, extortion, and bribery, nothing has ever really stuck to him.  Now he’s survived an assassination attempt, and even Aileen Cannon timed her dismissal of the felony charges for stealing classified documents to coincide with the opening of the Republican Convention Coronation in Milwaukee today.

I say all this as background for my conclusion that this election is over.  Biden was, and still is, in serious trouble.  His negatives are terrible and he’s trailing TFG in all of the battleground states.  Like it our not, he’s been boxed in, and every measure is going TFG’s way.   I know that I’ve pissed off a lot of Salon customers in the last week calling for Biden to step aside, but now I believe that even doing that won’t help.  All of the momentum is in TFG’s direction, and this election now feels a lot like 2004 and 2016.  In 2004 GWB/Cheney started a war to get re-elected after 9/11 sinking Kerry’s bid.  In 2016 TFG fabricated a dark dystopian image of a crime-ridden country in decline being overrun by dark-skinned terrorists pouring over the border.  He’s banged on the this drum for almost 10 years now, and the assassination attempt has played right into his mythology to great effect.  Those not paying attention to the facts will be swept up in his new assassination attempt “unification” message and fall for it, not realizing the fact that TFG and his screaming heads are the ones who created this mythology that has been tearing the country apart for over a decade.  The false “both sides do it” argument has become embedded in our political DNA now for years.

I believe the 2024 election result will not be good.  Not only do we stand to lose the White House, which is terrifying, but we also stand to lose both the House and the Senate.  With the SCOTUS already lost, we’re entering into a dark future that threatens the very fabric of our country.  With no guardrails or rule of law to stop him, I predict TFG’s  “unification” message will go down the shitter right after the election when the convicted felon and his goons will take over.

This is not good.

Like George Clooney, I love me some Joe Biden.  With decades of experience in the Senate, then as Obama’s VP, and then as President who pulled us back from the TFG and Covid abyss in 2020, Biden has been in the right place at the right time for years.  I supported him strongly in 2016 when Hillary boxed him out and handed the White House to TFG the first time.  I backed Biden in 2020 because he was the only Dem candidate running who had a chance of unseating TFG.  He succeeded magnificently and has done a great job shoveling out the manure that TFG piled into the White House the previous 4 years.  However, the Biden of 2024 is clearly not the Biden of 2008, 2016, or 2020.  Like many others whose opinions count for a lot more than mine, I agree that Biden cannot beat TFG, period.  Clooney says that, three weeks ago when he was with Biden in NY for a huge fundraiser, Biden was the same Biden we all saw on national television who totally and completely fumbled THE debate.  The orchestra is playing, and it’s time to gracefully exit the stage.

I know this is not a popular opinion among many of the party faithful and a lot of customers of the Salon, but the numbers support my opinion.  Though Biden is statistically tied with TFG in national polls, he’s LOSING EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE by an average of over 5 points.  At this point in the cycle, that almost guarantees, barring a miracle, a Biden loss.  To believe Biden can win the electoral college in 2024 requires complete suspension of disbelief and blindness to facts.  In a word, if Biden doesn’t drop out, and I mean RIGHT NOW, we’re all fucked in 2024, because we’ll not only lose the White House, but likely the House and Senate.  That means, especially with a packed and corrupted SCOTUS, that there will be no guard rails to stop the goons who will be running the entire federal government and most of the states.  That, my dear readers, is unacceptable risk.

Like LBJ, Biden must graciously withdraw and then actively support a plan to replace him as a candidate.  Carville published a great plan a couple of days ago that outlined a short, transparent primary process moderated by 42 and 44 to select a new candidate.  This opinion will also piss off some of our customers, but I disagree that Biden should just endow Harris with the nomination.  Her numbers are almost as bad as his and won’t garner the support of undecideds like an open process.  This needs to be thrown open to other very strong candidates like Witmer, Newsom, Buttigieg, Moore, AND Harris in a process that is public, transparent, and fair.

I don’t want to hear the bullshit argument that the “primary voters have already spoken”.  That’s nonsense.  There was no real primary process; no debates, no real alternatives (including Dean Philips), and no active process, so the voters have NOT spoken.  There must be another alternative and that needs to happen NOW.

Americans should have one goal, and one goal only for 2024: soundly thrashing TFG at the polls.  We have to kill the cancer of MAGA and the cult of personality and that needs to happen now.  The DOJ has failed us; the federal and state courts have failed us; the SCOTUS has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that the majority is profoundly corrupt and ruling for their actual constituents (the billionaires and extremists) and not for the rule of law.  None of our guardrails are working.  To save the US and our almost 250 year old form of government, we have to save ourselves.  And we, as voters, need someone to coalesce around, and that ain’t Joe Biden.

So there.

Last night, CNN stupidly handed TFG 70 minutes on the national stage to spew his bullshit and play his greatest hits of lies, big lies, gigantic lies, and intergalactic lies.  His “town hall” quickly became a TFG rally complete with mocking of the moderator and continued defamation of every perceived enemy from Biden to E. Jean Carroll.  What idiot at CNN thought it would be a good idea to fill a room with TFG supporters and unleash them on national television?  TFG began his stream of lies within one minute of taking the stage, and it continued for over an hour, completely running over moderator Kaitlan Collins, who’s effort to fact check TFG was an exercise in futility.

If there was any good that came from last night’s shameful display, it’s that TFG did a superb  job of burying himself in confessions of crimes and continued defamation of his enemies, especially E. Jean Carroll, to whom he already owes $5 million.  He openly celebrated the January 6th insurrection, calling it a “beautiful day”, and repeated his promise to pardon insurrectionists.  He admitted to taking classified documents and hiding them at Mar a Lago.  You can bet that Jack Smith and other federal and state prosecutors were listening very carefully and taking copious notes.  I have to admit one thing about TFG – he clearly understands his plight and has pushed all of his chips to the center of the table.  He knows that if he’s not successful at winning the presidency and taking down the US government, he’s facing the rest of his life either in jail or fighting desperately to stay out.  Without a win, his fate is sealed.

We may as well brace for almost two years of this rolling shitshow as it’s clear that TFG controls the former Republican party and no one will come close to taking him down in the primaries.  EVERY voter needs to understand the stakes here; you can bet that TFG does.

As the January 6th Committee focuses all its attention on TFG, the evidence presented makes it indisputable that not only is he a Giant ShitBag, he’s a criminal guilty of seditious conspiracy and other crimes.  Life for TFG is going to radically change in coming months with dozens of lawsuits and even criminal charges in his future.  Recent polls are showing his death grip on the GOP is weakening, and many Republican voters are beginning to look elsewhere for 2024.

While I welcome Trump finally facing the music, taking him out politically presents a conundrum – besides Biden, the Dems have no candidate groomed or positioned to run for president in 2024.  With Trump out of the way, the next choice for the GOP is Ron DeSantis who I would describe as TFG, only smart.  DeSantis understands what issues drive his base to the polls and he is relentless.  He’s been trying to get to the right of every other possible candidate in the last 2 years especially Abbott in their race to the Crazy Train 2024.  After TFG, DeSantis is polling stronger by multiples than everyone else on the train.  For the Dems, that’s not good.

I love me some Joe Biden, but he’s going to be 82 in 2024.  That’s simply too old, especially up against a much younger loudmouthed opponent like DeSantis.  That match up simply won’t turn out well.  The big problem for the Dems is that there is no other obvious choice; Kamala polls around 37% approval, and currently polls about even with DeSantis and her name recognition is much higher than his, at least for now.  That’s not great.  Behind her are, Schiff? Newsom? Warren? Sanders? (God, please no). Booker? Roy Cooper? (gov of NC). Klobuchar? AOC? Buttigieg? Sherrod Brown?  Of all these possibilities, Brown seems the strongest choice as he’s done well for years in Ohio which is more conservative than it is liberal.  Buttigieg is a possible, especially now that he’s a cabinet secretary, but I’m not convinced he’ll have a enough broad appeal, especially with low information voters.  The rest are either not ready (AOC) or unelectable, like Warren and Sanders.

In the end, the Dems face a tough choice.  I would vote for any Dem over DeSantis, but I’m not your typical voter, and this is the problem for 2024.  Typical voters don’t pay close attention until it’s almost too late, and tend to follow the herd.  That’s how TFG eked out a win in 2016; DeSantis has the advantage for 2024 of a strong base and coming from probably THE key battleground state giving him a huge leg up on everyone else.

Such is the problem with the Dems; unlike the GOP, the Dems do almost no grass roots growing, and that makes the party weaker.  One illustration of the difference between the two parties is that of the pyramid.  Repubs build a broad base, running for school boards, precinct chairs, and town councils. On this base is built a large population of up and coming politicians, and those who rise to the top become the leading candidates with president on the top of the pyramid.  The Dems do the opposite; there’s very little broad grass roots work so presidential candidates are on their own to get enough attention to get nominated (Obama was the textbook example of that).  Once the candidate is selected, the entire party then piles onto that candidate forming an upside down pyramid that is 100% dependent on the candidate; if he/she fails, the entire party collapses and then has to rebuild.  Relentless grass roots development is how the GOP has come to dominate in most states, and the Dems haven’t figured it out yet.

That brings us to 2024.  The January 6th Committee stands a really good chance of taking out TFG either by actual criminal charges from the DOJ or at least damaging him enough to kill his 2024 chances.  That brings DeSantis, who’s a much stronger candidate.  The Dems don’t have an answer for that.  It ain’t pretty, and I’m not hopeful.