Super Tuesday Outlook
The last week was good to front-runners, but I, Primo, hold to my view that The Day After SuperTomorrow we will be able to truly tell the character of both races, as actual, significant delegate totals are at stake. Here are some story lines to watch.
GOP – Right now, I have no idea what’s going to happen, because I have no idea if the tag team of the Cuban Canadian Creeper and the RU-B0 Snark ‘droid have actually put a dent in the Donald’s momentum. It is possible, but I think unlikely, because the type of voter supporting Trump isn’t the sort who keeps up with political trends. They’ve been conditioned by years of insouciant Republican mendacity to discount any negative utterance about their guy as itself a lie, perpetrated by 1) desperate opponents 2) the “lame stream” media or 3) Democrats.
In fact, the entire snacilbupeR ethos is built on a tottering tower of lies, which grows another floor every time they project America’s problems onto liberals. It’s gotten so tall, that it was not just apropos, but inevitable that Trump, a walking edifice complex, would slap his name on it. Thus, he seems to be maintaining his lead in tomorrow’s polls. We will see what happens beyond tomorrow.
Dems – this one is a little easier to parse, because there’s only two candidates, neither of them is nuts and their disagreements tend to be professional, rather than personal. Bernie won’t win the delegate apportionments tomorrow. The only measure of success we can hold him to is the one he laid out after Nevada, when he listed Vermont, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Minnesota and Colorado as the states they expect to do well in.
He has a little reason to hope that could happen. Colorado and Minnesota are caucus states, notoriously difficult to poll. Like Schrodinger’s Cat, Bernie could be alive in there, or not. Oklahoma, where independents can vote in the Democratic Primary for the first time, just showed a promising 5-point lead for Sanders, although two other February polls showed Hillary leads. Similarly, recent polls have given Clinton a slim lead on Bernie in Massachusetts, but that’s a close one, too. Vermont, of course, will be a Sanders win.
Four or five wins for Sanders, however slim, will allow pundits to declare him still viable, and give him a narrative to continue into the weekend contests with. But even before his Carolina pasting, it was likely he would find himself 200 delegates down after Tuesday. (Pending the 27 delegates in the American Samoa Caucus and Democrats Abroad Primary.)
~Primo
Primo (and your other identity) thank you so much for your hard work and clarity in decoding the pure madness that is snacilbupeR. I sincerely appreciate your efforts.
1Primo, set me up for a trifecta bet, please and let it ride until after the March 15th results. Trifecta for the snacilbupeR losses in Florida, Ohio and Texas deflating RU-B0, ALEC Ksuchasheis and Crooze.
Fort Bend County Democratic Party do yourselves BLUE and proud! Vote Mr. Don Bankston, Esq., as your County Democratic Party chair!!!
2Primo neglected to mention that, however unlikely, if Bernie manages to win any Confederate states, that would be a substantial change to the character of the race (duh). But also, if he overperforms and loses narrowly, even that would be messagable.
If I had to pick, I’d guess – guess! – that he’s most likely to overperform in TN and GA. Just a S.W.A.G.
3Remember–black VOTES matter.
4In the long run they matter a lot.
Primo and daChipster, any chance the recent endorsement by Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) will will swing some of the veteran and active duty vote to Sen Sanders? The confederate states are full of bases and retired military. If nothing else, hope her resignation from the DNC sends Debbie WTF Schultz a message.
5I’m pulling for Schrodinger’s Cat to be alive, whether Bernie or Hillary wins. I’m also hopeful that the super delegates aren’t the deciding factor at this stage so Bernie supporters don’t totally reject a Hillary win. We need everybody turning out for this one.
6I’m ok whether Schrodinger’s Cat lives or doesn’t. But I’d like to see a selection of nacilbupeR heads on platters after I sober up the evening after the election in November. And Grover Norquist can occupy one of the platters as well.
7maryelle, Jane and I are feeling the Bern. But we promise you, we will vote for the Democratic nominee in November. If we were looking at snacilbupeR super delegates, we’d be suspicious. However, we trust the Democrat Super Delegates to vote with the popular vote of their states. That’s the democratic and Democratic way.
Micr, we may need another case or two of the Irak playing cards to pin a card on all the richly deserving snacibupeR after the election.
Gotta leave! KJ is insisting we be good boys and walk Mommie’s dogs. He doesn’t think chores are chores, if he’s helping Mommie.
8PKM. I’ll see your Major and raise you a Lt. Col. – Tammy Duckworth, badass chopper pilot and the next by-gawd Senator from my Native State of Illinois!
Hillary supporter.
9From what I have read and heard, my state, MN, is just about a toss up. MN Dems tend to be quite liberal and like socialistic programs. (We are almost universally embarrassed about electing Jesse Ventura for governor in the 90s. That was a bridge too far.)
I’m looking forward to caucusing. It’s fun! And a little crazy. I’ll be supporting Marina Ramirez for state senate and whatever Democrat is trying to fill the US House seat John Kline is retiring from. (There’s a seat Dems can definitely pick up. It’s a purple district.) And I’ll caucus for Hilary.
10From on the ground here in CO, Bernie looks very strong going into tomorrow’s caucus. This is the first time I’ve ever had any candidate leave a door hanger at our home with info on how to caucus, and most importantly a sticker added to it telling us exactly where and when to do so. That’s the kind of ground game the Democratic party in general needs to get better at, ASAP, no matter who wins the nom.
11Excellent summary and analysis, Primo.
12Excellent, and thank you micr for offering Norquist on a platter, may I suggest an apple in his mouth for garnish. God I hate that guy. I fully intend to vote for Bernie today, my little contribution to keeping Schrodingers poor cat both alive and dead until the convention to make a statement. God I love that guy!
13In Guam at the moment, and I saw a Bernie bumper sticker yesterday.
14The snacilbupeR governor has endorsed Ted Cruz. Not surprising, since his last campaign slogan was “The Right Choice.”
What appears to be self defeating is that Hillary ( I prefer Bernie but it is a close run thing) may go a long way in locking up the D’s nomination by winning primary’s in states that will not be going to the D’s in the general no matter what sort of twit the R’s put up.
Perhaps a version of voting in the convention based upon historical voting patterns. Some mix of current D legislatures, state elected or Federal rep’s from that state. If alabama won’t vote blue their convention votes are discounted by 90%.
So she runs the risk of alienaiting good D’s in Blue or swing states by negating their voice with an overwhelming win in Red states such as alabama, texas, georgia etc. Thus ignoring Colorado, Wisconsin, and other winnable states.
15Primo’s “tottering tower of lies” is reminiscent of Jon Stewart’s “Bull$hit Mountain” and glad am I that we have DaChipster to break it down for us, but I do mourn for Stewart’s voice in this surreal political season.
16daChipster, good raise. Nicely played! Women are the future of the Democratic Party. Seriously. Whether LT Col/Sen Duckworth or Major/Rep Gabbard, we win. The ‘best’ the snacilbupeR can parade is Traitor Tom Cotton, who at best can be said to represent the moron wing of their party. Oh, and as a rising newcomer, they have MOH Dakota Meyer, who to date has as his biggest political accomplishment restoring the word cuckold to its old English meaning.
Debbo, StringOnAStick, and others, love your positive contributions. Where we go past Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy is very much contingent upon those strategies, both small and big, that work.
17@maryelle
Yes Jon Stewart left the show too soon. He could have mailed in this season’s humor. Especially with Herr Drumpf, it’s just “rip and read”!
18PKM – Unfortunately, the Rethugs have Joni Ernst as a U.S. Senator from Iowa. She retired from the Iowa National Guard last year as a lieutenant colonel. Remember her? The one who got in to office bragging how she used her .45 caliber Colt service automatic to shoot the balls off Iowa hogs?
19UmptyDump, I prefer that the snacilbupeR have Ivankuturnutzov. The crazy are more in tune with their ideology.
20@PKM
@UmptyDump
Remember your Poe when you think of Senator Joni “Kuturnutzov” Ernst:
“There is no exquisite beauty… without some strangeness in the proportion.”
Just sayin’.
21Micr, her ‘laugh’ is beyond anything Poe described. “Caw, caw” doesn’t do it justice.
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