Pick Your Super Tuesday Winner Here
Five Thirty Eight has posted a Super Tuesday simulation so you can pick your scenario, and now that Buttigieg and Steyer have finally dropped out, the various scenarios are much clearer to see. Warren, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar supporters will hate this exercise since it won’t let you pick an individual primary simulation that has less than .5% chance of winning. I couldn’t come up with a scenario that shows a path to the nomination for Warren and Klobuchar, but if you pick Bloomberg even in states he’s trailing, the simulation gives a path for him to at least have a seat at the table during the convention. I played with the model for a bit, and was able to come up with wins for both Sanders and Biden. The model recalculates probabilities with each selection, so it’s interesting to play around with it. If you look at their primary forecast, “No One” is leading since there are still too many zero percent candidates diluting the votes of actual candidates. Bloomberg’s entry has also lowered the odds for everyone. Once Warren and Klobuchar finally drop out, the battle against Bloomberg will begin in earnest, and that will be a battle royal.
If you’re in a Super Tuesday state, be sure to vote tomorrow if you haven’t already.
I voted absentee a couple of weeks ago. Followed Maddow’s advice: voted with my heart in the primary and will vote with my head in the general.
1Pete dropped out at 11% (as he should have) but Tulsi is still in there at about 1%??? Someone sit her down and explain things to her (and Amy and Warren , but Tulsi is ridiculous).
2Polls. While 538 has cleaned up their algorithms and are somewhat more accurate than most of the other polls, it’s flawed by the who is contacted and what is asked of them factor. Or, no more relevant today than 4 years ago. The weather report for November 2020 predicting voter turnout is nearly as accurate.
Bernie, the grumpy old man yelling “get off my lawn” has managed to maintain and increase voter enthusiasm since the last election. So really how does one factor in that “but he’s OUR grumpy old man”?
Liz, loveable school marm. Joe, likeable gaffer. Both seem to be hindered by the sentiment of “but we needed you 4 years ago.” Try polling for sentiment, but you can hear it on the ground. What is that they say about “Democrats fall in love, Republicons fall in line” … it omits that love and voters can be fickle. ##
Magic Mike, enjoys a segment of support due to his philanthropic efforts within minority business communities. But his shelf date or political currency has the “what have you done for me lately” factor. Perhaps another reason no Democrat has been able to repeat the Obama coalition.
Amy, her supporters are enthusiastic but the least in terms of numbers. Liked both because she’s younger and a woman, not a likely factor to carry her across the finish line.
## Expect some hits from both Warren and Biden supporters to the tune of “but they are NOT alike as candidates.” Agreed. Merely suggesting they are in some way hampered by the same voter love dynamic.
Will there be a photo finish for second between Biden and Warren? Warren could pick up some of the Steyer vote in CA, or not; dayum early voting, but big numbers in terms of delegates. Pete’s voters maybe 60% or less to Biden with the other approximate 40% oddly split between Amy, Liz, and Magic Mike.
Unintentional. But for Super Tuesday today at the Track on the Grade the order of finish will be: Sanders, Biden, Warren, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar.
Weather forecast for November 2020. Be of good cheer Democrats. All of your candidates are better than Donnie*. Look what those crazy Republicons did in 2016 given 23 odious choices, they selected the most odious, Donnie*. We ARE better than that! 2020!!! Vote.
3How is this simulation supposed to work? I messed round with it for several minutes. They need some instructions.
4given my party’s establishment’s fear of Bernie, I’ll bet that Biden doesn’t do well on Super Tuesday and that they’ll bring Bloomberg to the fore to squeeze Bernie out. MB’s already bought two super delegates in California.
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