The Great Migration

January 10, 2024 By: Nick Carraway

As most people know, our democracy really isn’t a pure democracy or even a pure representative democracy. There were weights and counterweights installed in order to protect the rights and interests of smaller states in comparison to larger states. When you look at the representation in Congress you will notice that it doesn’t completely represent the will of the people 100 percent accurately.

This is particularly true in the Senate where each state has equal representation. The states represented by Democrats in the Senate represent nearly 70 million more Americans than those represented by Republicans, This is in spite of the fact that the breakdown is officially only 51-49.

Notice the talking points on the right as it pertains to the last presidential election. People talk about the number of counties that voted for Trump. They look at the large swaths of land that voted for Trump. They even look at the fact that more people showed up to his rallies and bought his stuff. They look at everything except for total votes cast. They can’t really defend losing by seven million votes overall, so they gloss over it.

The concept of one person, one vote is foreign in this country as it pertains to the presidential election, gerrymandered districts, and even local elections. The idea that a majority should dictate what is going on is something the right generally wants to avoid. So, we have been subject to minority rule for the majority of my collective lifetime.

I voted for the first time in 1992. During that time period, Republicans have won the majority in a presidential election exactly once. George W. Bush handily beat John Kerry in 2004. That’s it. So, to say that the country is a center-right country is a myth. When you consider that Republicans have served three terms as president in that time and appointed more than half of the court demonstrates what has happened to our country.

My interest from a political science perspective is what happens when these overbearing laws on reproductive rights begin to crop out in red states. We saw a migration to the south at the beginning of the 20th century when jobs and air conditioning changed the population patterns in the country. Texas became a destination and is now the second biggest state in the country in terms of population.

That could reverse itself as at the very least you can expect a brain drain in the state. Medical professionals will not want to practice medicine in Texas, so they will move to bluer states. Women and young families will follow them. Younger people and educated professionals tend to be blue politically. They will move to areas in the country that will also be blue.

So, how does that impact our politics? I would argue that puts a ton of pressure on a system that does not reflect the will of the people overall. If bluer states are already amongst the most populous and that will be exacerbated if this migration occurs then you have a definite problem in the Senate. If the Senate continues to operate where you need a 60-40 majority to get things done, it will be nearly impossible for things to get through in a body that will likely fluctuate around 50-50 no matter how many more votes Democrats get nationwide.

When you consider the fact that blue states contribute more to the coffers than blue states and essentially subsidize red states you will see that get wider if this kind of migration comes to pass. How does this impact the body politic? How does this massive migration impact politics and elections in the next generation? It obviously changed politics in last century, so how will it impact politics in the next century? Time will tell.

The Human Problem

January 08, 2024 By: Nick Carraway

I predicted somewhere (I’m not sure if it was here) that the gambit of using the 14th amendment to bar Trump from appearing on the ballot was not going to work ultimately. For the time being we are going to ignore the obvious pollicization of the court and just look at the law before them. My fears were realized when the attorney general of Missouri pulled the stunt I had been waiting for all along.

For those that don’t want to go down the rabbit hole, the attorney general is threatening to hold Joe Biden’s name off of the ballot in Missouri. Has Biden participated in an insurrection or done anything illegal? Of course not. He all but admitted as such.  When the provision for the 14th amendment was written, it was written in such a way for a specific purpose. Belonging to the Confederacy was by itself proof that you had participated in an insurrection. So, the authors of that amendment left it up to the states and ultimately the attorneys general to make the call.

The problem is two-fold. First, what mechanism does that person use to determine whether someone can legally seek the office? Donald Trump has not been charged with insurrection and was officially found not guilty by the Senate. So, how does one reach that determination? Forget the fact that we all watched it unfold in front of our eyes on national television. Forget that the January 6th committee has already uncovered more than enough evidence to show that it happened and that he spearheaded it. Forget that the majority of the 91 counts that he has been charged with in three of the four jurisdictions are directly or indirectly related to it. Is there actual proof in a court of law? If not, who decides on the facts and what they mean?

While what Missouri (or one man in Missouri) is proposing is preposterous, it does highlight a problem. It is a human one. You can write all the laws you want and you can write them as carefully and clearly as you like. It still relies on someone or a group executing that law.

This fundamental failure is on two groups of people. The first guilty party is the Republican party. They could have stopped this nonsense at any point. They could have done it in 2015 when he decided to run. They could have done it any number of moments during his reign of terror. They could have done it immediately after he left office at the second impeachment trial. They could have simply said you aren’t running anymore. They could do it now. I’m not sure what the Democratic party would do under the same circumstances. I really can’t say because there has never been a Donald Trump before. It is a uniquely Republican problem at this point in history. The Democrats have tried to bail them out in multiple instances and they refuse to take the lifeline.

The second group of people are the voters themselves. This isn’t about liberal or conservative anymore. Values are values after all and he is a man that has none. I remember talking to a former colleague (that I have snoozed on Facebook) that argued that he was a honorable man with a ton of positive qualities. I dared him to name one. He couldn’t. He couldn’t because you can’t. It was never about him or the positive qualities he supposedly possesses.

The Supreme Court will likely strike down Colorado’s decision. They will do it for craven and political reasons, but they will also have legal and ethical ones. In a democracy can we allow one person to determine someone’s fitness for office? Wouldn’t that be antithetical to what we are at our core? I know people want to find some way to save us from ourselves. I get that completely. Unfortunately, there is no easy way out. We will have to vanquish this pit stain of a human being the old-fashioned way. The GOP certainly isn’t going to do it. Our courts might catch up to him one day, but ultimately it will have to be us. Buckle up folks. It will be a bumpy ride.

New Year’s Resolution

January 05, 2024 By: Nick Carraway

The secret to all demagogues is fear. That shouldn’t be a revelation. Fear is a powerful motivator. There are a number of people that are afraid of any number of things. It usually comes down to an us versus them situation. The them just changes depending on who you are talking to. It could be all of the immigrants pouring over the border with drugs, mayhem, and the ability to work for cheaper wages. It could be the LGTBQ+ community as it seems to grow by the minute. It could be racial or ethnic minorities that seem to want more and more things. It could be women and their desire for bodily autonomy and equal rights. It could be the so-called woke mob that seems to want to indoctrinate our kids with whatever nonsense they have. I could go on and on.

When we see terms like liberty and freedom being misappropriated we see this and exactly this going on. People are afraid THEIR freedom will go away because more of THEM are appearing in their lives. When you are being bombarded daily about invasions and mobs of woke people then you think your rights and your freedoms are being threatened. Therefore, it becomes paramount that you pass laws that protect your way of life by limiting those other ways of life.

This is how demagoguery works. Someone takes those fears and absorbs them like some kind of evil antibacterial cream they can rub into the body politic. They rail against those people. They hate those people. They promise to fight for you and your values. They promise that those other people (whoever they may be) will never succeed in changing your way of life.

So, we get to the part of constructive suggestions. I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. The lunatic fringe has 35-40 percent fairly entrenched and ready to vote based on their fear. Trying to convince them otherwise is a waste of time. It is important to understand where they are coming from if only to navigate our relationships with them. If you know the motivation then you can tiptoe through conversations and family gatherings without too much incident. That is of course unless you enjoy the fireworks.

The key group is not the right or the left. The key group are the people we might label as the “I don’t cares.” I’m not calling them undecided voters anymore. They rarely vote because they don’t see the relevance to them. They are unengaged by their own choice. They see this as a both sides are corrupt kind of deal. So, the key thing is making them see the distinct difference between what both sides view as freedom. How do we define freedom? What realistic limits do we set on freedom and why? Most importantly, how does it impact you?

The key is in identifying who these folks are and targeting them with repeated messaging. It is about bodily autonomy and not just abortion. It is about what they want to censure next and not just a few books in the library. It is about what will happen to you if THEY deem you as unfit. Are these fear tactics? Sure they are. We should be afraid and we need to make sure everyone sees what it at stake.

 

 

Fifth Circuit Blues

January 03, 2024 By: Fenway Fran

Honestly, I don’t know how long women of childbearing age can stay in Texas. I am grateful my daughters are settled in states where their health and lives are respected. Tuesday’s decision by the Fifth Circuit reaffirms how broken Texas is. I am using my A language here, because Momma’s watching from the great beyond, but what I really want to use is my F language.

And then there’s this. Too many people are suffering and dying from bad air. Bad air along industrial zones on the Gulf Coast is not news. Just ask Juanita Jean. Yet, the powers that be in these states (and the Supreme Court) don’t want government interference or the EPA telling them what to do, until they want to blame Joe Biden. You can’t have it both ways, guys. Voters, you need to hold your leaders accountable up and down the ballot. All Politics is Local, right?

This will sound harsh, and certainly doesn’t apply to Salon patrons who are doing all they can to turn things around, but no one in a clean air/water state is going to feel too sorry for you if you don’t help yourselves. I do know that some of us will be sending a little cash to candidates in foreign states who give a hoot, joining GOTV letter campaigns, and supporting our own legislators who understand how important a clean environment is for all of us. Especially with the impacts of climate change. After all, we are pro life no caps, have friends and family we care about, and are good American patriots in the purest sense of the word. Some of us are even fans of the NE Patriots, even when they have losing seasons (like they did when I was growing up). See how I lightened up this rant??? Tomorrow, I go back to drinking half-caf in the morning, I can’t keep this up.

If there isn’t landslide mail in, early and on site Election Day voting in 2024, I will be more disappointed than I was on election night 2016. Okay, maybe AS disappointed. That was a hell night I will never recover from, and an order of magnitude worse than election night 2000.  I’d better stock up the bar just in case. At this rate I won’t come close to Damp January, never mind Dry January. Who knows where things will be at by November. Hang on, it is going to be a wild ride.

A Half Empty Timeline For 2023

December 31, 2023 By: Half Empty

Fifteen votes to elect a Speaker,
But only one vote will undo it.
A Chinese spy balloon drifts above us,
But Air Force jets don’t pursue it.

Finland joins NATO,
And Russia is pissed,
Elon blows up big giant rockets,
But Tesla and X persist.

A former President gets indicted,
On ninety-one felonies he’s booked.
Ukraine’s counter-offense falters,
But Putin’s Chef’s goose is cooked.

WHO declares the pandemic is over,
When cases and deaths go down
Canada’s forests turn black,
As New York’s skies turn brown.

Hollywood writers and actors strike,
AI, they say, is unsound,
A hurricane lands in Los Angeles,
And Lahaina burns to the ground.

The Big 3 gets struck at all their plants,
And auto workers rejoice.
SCOTUS Justices exposed for grift
While Red States opt for Choice.

Murder in the Holy Land.

Arabs throw a climate change party,
To make oil production descend.
Mass shootings take 649 lives,
But AR sales won’t end.

This all happened in twenty twenty-three.
That’s not all of it, but it seems enough to me.
In “Hair” they promised an “Age of Aquarius”,
Where peace and harmony will rule,
I doubt that it will ever come,
But wouldn’t it be cool?

Happy Holidays

December 24, 2023 By: Juanita Jean Herownself


 

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