On Saturday evening at 6:11 pm local time, the 2024 campaign effectively ended.  When a 20 year old gunman took potshots (literally) at TFG which grazed him, wounded two others, and killed another, the ground shifted under our feet, swinging the election in his direction.  Since that moment, TFG has pivoted to a laughable “unity” message and has uncharacteristically embargoed all communication coming from the campaign to tightly control that message.  He’s fund raising on the assassination attempt and claims he’s rewriting his speech to emphasized “unity”.  His talking heads are blaming political rhetoric from Biden and Democrats for the violence, completely ignoring the open sewer of hate speech and incitement to violence that has spewed out of TFG’s mouth for well over a decade.

To add to his strength in the polls, his handpicked judge in the Mar a Lago documents case DISMISSED the entire case a few hours ago, ruling that special prosecutor Jack Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional.  Once again, her ruling flies in the face of decades of judicial precedence, clearly and openly violating her oath of office to defend the Constitution and the rule of law in order to protect her benefactor. This final ruling by Cannon is certainly a nice flourish to complete her audition as TFG’s next SCOTUS nominee.

I have to say that Failed Assassination Attempt at an Outdoor Rally was not on my 2024 election year Bingo card.  TFG is the luckiest son of a bitch on the planet.  While he has amassed a tsunami of evil transgressions including fraudulent business practices, racists policies, sexual assault, self aggrandizement, violations of state and federal election laws, insurrection, incitement to violence, extortion, and bribery, nothing has ever really stuck to him.  Now he’s survived an assassination attempt, and even Aileen Cannon timed her dismissal of the felony charges for stealing classified documents to coincide with the opening of the Republican Convention Coronation in Milwaukee today.

I say all this as background for my conclusion that this election is over.  Biden was, and still is, in serious trouble.  His negatives are terrible and he’s trailing TFG in all of the battleground states.  Like it our not, he’s been boxed in, and every measure is going TFG’s way.   I know that I’ve pissed off a lot of Salon customers in the last week calling for Biden to step aside, but now I believe that even doing that won’t help.  All of the momentum is in TFG’s direction, and this election now feels a lot like 2004 and 2016.  In 2004 GWB/Cheney started a war to get re-elected after 9/11 sinking Kerry’s bid.  In 2016 TFG fabricated a dark dystopian image of a crime-ridden country in decline being overrun by dark-skinned terrorists pouring over the border.  He’s banged on the this drum for almost 10 years now, and the assassination attempt has played right into his mythology to great effect.  Those not paying attention to the facts will be swept up in his new assassination attempt “unification” message and fall for it, not realizing the fact that TFG and his screaming heads are the ones who created this mythology that has been tearing the country apart for over a decade.  The false “both sides do it” argument has become embedded in our political DNA now for years.

I believe the 2024 election result will not be good.  Not only do we stand to lose the White House, which is terrifying, but we also stand to lose both the House and the Senate.  With the SCOTUS already lost, we’re entering into a dark future that threatens the very fabric of our country.  With no guardrails or rule of law to stop him, I predict TFG’s  “unification” message will go down the shitter right after the election when the convicted felon and his goons will take over.

This is not good.

There are dramas that are playing out in the backwaters of MAGAdom whose effects are still being felt by people no one has ever heard of. Big names in the MAGA Empire are scooping up all the cash resources, and that leaves little lucre for the locals.

Think of it. There is a finite amount of donor cash out there, and Republican donation recipients (aka donees) who are not first or second in line at the buffet table are going to have to squabble with each other for the table scraps.

Take, for example, the Texas Sheep and Goat Raisers PAC. I know. They are not on anyone’s campaign cash watch list, and that is doubly so now.

They are broke.

They are more than broke. Last week, Alfredo at the Dairy Queen hipped me to the news that the Federal Election Commission, sent the PAC a letter asking about their nonzero ending balance on their most recent filing:

Your report discloses a negative ending cash balance of  $3,791.44. This suggests that you have overdrawn your account, made a mathematical error, or incurred a debt. If your committee has incurred a debt or obligation, please itemize this debt on Schedule D, show a zero balance on Line 8 of the Summary Page and include the amount on Line 10. Please file an amendment to your report to accurately disclose your financial activities. (52 U.S.C. §30104(b)(8) and 11 CFR § 104.3(d)).

That’s right. Broke. Busted. Insolvent. Wiped out. Poor as church mice.

In 2022, the last year they had money to give, the PAC donated $6,000 to federal campaigns: $1,000 to Texas Rep Henry Cuellar (D TX-28) and $5,000 to four Republicans. Of these four, half, or $2,500, went to August Pfluger (R TX-11). And yes, Pfluger is a lineal descendent of the founder of Pflugerville, Texas.

These people, and more, will not be receiving any campaign cash from the Texas Sheep and Goat Raisers PAC this year. I guess they are going to have to look to some other goat rodeo to get their lucre.
When the MAGA Money Machine starts making sucking sounds, you know your peanuts PAC is in trouble.

I hesitate to write this, but I figure a pseudonym and friendly environment provides the best cover. I also think that when my mind immediately went to this it shows not that I or anyone else that thought this are horrible people but that the state of our politics are this bad. However, the very first thought that came to mind when I heard about the news about the Trump “assassination attempt” was that it was a false flag.

Considering there are two people dead that makes the thought that much more detestable. There are three scenarios running through my head and I’ll let the peanut gallery vote for the most likely. I suppose we should add the possibility that all of this is on the level, but I’ll lay that aside for two important reasons. First, the secret service cleared all of those in attendance. So, they either royally fucked this up or something nefarious is at play. Secondly, this just lines up too perfectly. He is essentially unharmed, he gets to play victim, he gets to be in the news cycle, and they get to pin this on either left wing lawless zealots, people of color, immigrants, or they can go for the exacta. Details to come.

Scenario 1

All of the parties were knowingly involved. That means the purps are actually right wing operatives that knew they would be sacrificed. In this scenario the secret service were not involved in the plot. The planners simply knew that those two gentlemen would be taken out. I’m calling this one the least likely because I don’t see people willingly giving up their life for this ass clown, but I could be wrong there.

Scenario 2

The two men killed were not involved at all. It was a false flag that did not involve them. However, it would involve some in the secret service because it would involve them identifying two specific victims that fit the profile that would serve their narrative best. Admittedly, this is the scariest of the three scenarios because it makes the Secret Service complicit and it also means they specifically targeted two innocent people.

Scenario 3

It was a false flag that the Secret Service and those two were not involved in. The Secret Service honestly thought that they were involved and an active threat, so the Secret Service took them out. Honestly, this one is the most likely to me. Obviously, the identify of the two men shot hasn’t been released as of this writing. If they fit a particular narrative too easily then this scenario becomes less likely.

Okay, you place your vote.

This past Thursday, Tesla stock took a hit that no one was expecting. Here’s a plot of the stock’s performance over the past five days.

At one point on Thursday, Tesla had lost $105 billion in value.

Was there a bad news statement on production problems? None reported. An auto safety issue? No. Was there a bad quarterly report? Not even close. Did CNBC business reporter Jim Cramer recommend a strong “Buy” for Tesla stock?

Bingo.

This is known in business news circles as “The Cramer Effect” or more to the point, “The Inverse Cramer”.

Who urged a strong buy of Bear-Stearnes just before the 2008 mortgage crisis? Jim Cramer.

Who promoted FTX just before its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested for fraud? That was Cramer.

Who touted the dot com companies just before that bubble burst? Jim.

There is even an Inverse Cramer Index that tracks his recommendations.

Now, can we get Jim Cramer to recommend a strong “Buy” for TFG?

Bingo. 

“If you think that Trump’s more likely to be president, the overall tone of the stock market will improve if only because the man can’t bear to see it go down, as the major averages are the barometer he uses to measure his own job approval,” Cramer said. “You may think that’s insane, but it’s the reality, and if nothing else — hate him or like him – he’s good for your portfolio.”

I like that. Vote for the serial rapist and convicted felon, so your stock portfolio goes up because TFG will be so mad if it doesn’t.

Inverse Cramer predicts a strong Biden victory.

Booyah!

The wailing and gnashing of teeth over calls for Biden to end his candidacy is 2016 all over again.  I know many Salon customers hate it when I say it, but it’s true.  Hillary was a terrible candidate.  And, just like in 2016, I didn’t say unqualified, I said terrible candidate.  She didn’t listen to local party operatives, walled herself off from everyone who disagreed with her, and ignored calls for her to emphasize battleground states like Michigan believing that she had the election sewed up.  And we all know what happened.  Did Comey and Russian meddling hurt?  Absolutely, but it shouldn’t have been that close for that to have a material effect.  Those are facts that we all knew before the election, yet Hillary and party leaders ignored all the flashing red lights and handed the White House to TFG.

The same goddam thing is happening again with Biden loyalists and the base.  “Stay the course!” “Don’t change horses!” “The voters have spoken!” “If we change candidates, we’re going to lose like Humphrey!” “The Republicans will sue to keep a new candidate off the ballots!”  So on and so forth.  Here are the facts – THE ELECTION IS ALREADY LOST.  Only a miracle, or a thoughtful change, can save it.  Here are the battleground numbers as of TODAY:

TFG has a solid lead in every single battleground state and that’s unlikely to change.  During his press conference a couple of nights ago, Biden said no poll shows he’s losing.  They’re ALL showing he’s losing. Biden either lied, or, more likely, hasn’t been shown these polls.  It’s just math.

Yes, yes, we all know that TFG is a lying gasbag, shitbag, convicted felon, rapist, and every other pejorative adjective you can summon.  But that doesn’t mean a goddam thing to his voters.  In fact, they LOVE that he’s a lying gasbag and convicted felon as it plays into his Earth II narrative that he’s none of those things, but rather a victim of persecution by the “deep state”.  We’re not dealing with facts here folks, we dealing with people who don’t have a grip on reality.  THAT is reality.

While we’re at it, let’s talk about all the handwringing over Republicans suing to keep the Dems from “changing candidates on state ballots”.   First, there are no goddam ballots to change.  Biden, and TFG, for that matter are not the nominees for president.  There ARE no ballots, at least yet.  That doesn’t happen until AFTER the conventions.  Even then, there are mechanisms to change candidates, but that’s not what we’re talking about.  We’re talking about replacing Biden before or during the convention.  Suing to keep a new candidate off state ballots is a Republican talking point started by the Heritage Foundation (yes, that Heritage Foundation).  Like everything else coming out of the Heritage Foundation, it’s bullshit, so stop repeating it, please.  Here’s why.

Lastly, those of us calling for Biden to step aside are not “dividing the party” or “serving Republicans”.  Republicans, including TFG are terrified that the Dems use their heads and change candidates to a dynamic new candidate.  They LOVE running against Biden because they’re looking at the same numbers I am.  The numbers with any other major candidate are worse for TFG.

In short, every number points to a loss if Biden stays on the ticket.  Also, it increases greatly the chances of losing both the House and the Senate at the same time.  Those are inconvenient facts.  Ignoring those facts will lead to another TFG term in the White House and we should all be terrified of that.

Like everyone else, I was not happy at President Biden’s weak performance at the June 29th debate. But the pre-debate hype didn’t help. SOTU Joe didn’t show up as the media talking heads all promised us he would. Some other guy did. Excuses were made (head cold, jet lag, over-prepped) but in the end, all it earned the man was a swift kick in the pants by former supporters, and pleasantly surprised jeers from the MAGA crowd.

As I poke this text into my phone, the tides of opinion are still rising and falling. Each day brings us another county heard from.

In a previous post, and in making a different point, I suggested that any Democrat could beat a serial rapist with 34 felony convictions. The point was that TFG is more beatable now than he ever was before. As I wrote after the debate: “No one who isn’t a captive of The Former Guy’s demagogery is saying I really want this guy to be president again.”

That, at least, hasn’t changed. Except now, we have talk of open conventions (from which no emerging candidate has ever been elected in modern times) or a new “real primary” (as opposed to the one I voted in).

This situation echoes one that I experienced in 2006. Tom DeLay (R TX-22) was my congressman then. He had a bad primary with three opponents trying to oust him, and he got “only” 62% of the vote. That was bad news for Tom, and fearing defeat, he decided not to run in the General Election. The Republican Party of Texas got busy looking for someone to replace him on the ballot in November.

Then, lawyers for the Texas Democratic Party, calling a halt to that utter nonsense, got that whole thing thrown out in federal court with the brilliant notion that nothing in the Constitution prevented DeLay from being the nominee.

As is the case now.

Do you think that for one minute the Republican lawyers, the Heritage Foundation, or both, will sit on their hands watching as we Democrats try and fix things by looking for a younger, better, “winning-er” presidential candidate?

Experience tells us that the answer is “what the H-E-double hockey-sticks made you think that?” Have we learned nothing?

Sorry. For just this one reason alone, a torrent of litigation, we have to leave this dance with the one who brung us. To top it off, we have a perfectly good, some say great, Vice-President to assure the continuity of an administration that has had huge legislative success thanks in no small part to Biden’s senatorial mojo.

But hey, if it turns out that, for one reason or another, we have a President Harris before 2029, we can reassure all who still have reservations about him, that a Vice President Newsom is as unlikely a possibility as a Vice President Rubio.