Written by Nick Carraway.

In my current job I work with a lot of numbers. It could be kids’ test scores on STAAR, IQ tests, or achievement tests. I look at grades so often i usually get dizzy. So, you’ll forgive me if I like to look at numbers away from work as well.

I certainly have found it interesting that the last two votes in the Senate (on the constitutionality of impeaching the ex-president) had the exact same results as this CBS poll. So, the Senate voted 56-44 and the people currently support impeachment 56-44.

You rarely see that kind of alignment. Most of us don’t see the Senate voting differently when this whole shindig is over. What might change is that number from the overall population. We noticed it last time when the people heard the evidence from the first impeachment trial. It won’t be a ton of movement, but no one really expects it to be.

In terms of data and statistics, a swing of even a few points is a huge deal. It could be the difference between breaking even in House races in 2022 and gaining maybe ten seats. Think of the difference between a four point Biden win and a seven point Biden win. It’s a huge difference even if it looks small in the moment. If you can shift that 56 number to 60 then you’ve made some serious headway. That’s true even if the Senate turns in the same 56-44 vote they have the last two times.”

Nick