How many times have California Republicans tried to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom? Five? Then, six times must be the charm, or so must think the organizers of the latest effort to recall this popular governor.

The last time this happened, the recall effort made it to a special election. In an off year. In 2021. During a global pandemic.

By law, a recall effort is allowed 160 days to gather signatures on their petition after giving notification. In 2021, a judge allowed Republicans an additional 4 months to complete their task because not enough people were going shopping at big box stores where petition gatherers are usually encountered.

Because of COVID.

And COVID was ironically the main issue behind the recall. Newsom was first to lock down his state to avoid filling hospital ICUs with afflicted patients. He was quite good at that. He was, however, remiss in masking up at a widely reported dinner party in an exclusive French restaurant amid the lockdown. Hence, their moral outrage.

So it was paradoxical that the very beef they had with Newsom, COVID, allowed Republicans enough time to gather the required number of valid signatures to hold a special election after four previous tries.

This Politico article spells it all out, but there is a flaw in their reportage. Politico assumes that the recall is meant to take place in the November election.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

See, Californians like Newsom for the most part. They also like their Cannabis. At the time, it was no coincidence that Cannabis legalization proponents managed to schedule a vote to legalize recreational marijuana during the 2016 Presidential General election, which produced the 3rd highest voter turnout by percent since 1976.

The Cannabis legalization issue passed.

The last recall of Newsom was a special election on the recall alone. Special elections are notoriously low turnout ones here. Lower than midterm election turnouts. Not so in 2021. Despite the pandemic, that special election had a 58% participation; a full 8% higher than the 2022 midterm election.

Just imagine the turnout if Newsom’s recall were to occur as an issue on the same ballot that TFG appears on as a Presidential candidate.

In California.

It is safe to predict that 2024 would be a Republican rout up and down the ballot.

So no. Newsom’s recall is doomed if it is on the 2024 General Election, and Republicans know it.

On the other hand, Republicans know that 2028 will be Newsom’s first year to attempt a presidential run. Getting him recalled in a low-turnout special election in 2025 would be the obvious gambit to damage his image. Chris Christie had his George Washington Bridge affair to end his winning streak. They hope that this will end Newsom’s.

Their issue last time was flouting his own mask mandate in a restaurant. This time, it is the current state budget shortfall. My guess is that they missed on both issues.

Next time, they might consider trying to impeach President Newsom for using excess hair product.