Let’s Talk About Crime
Republican politics is just a more tightly wound ecosystem than anything on the left. There are a couple of things you can expect from Republicans during election season. They will complain about how extreme Democrats are on gun control. They will complain about how much Democrats spend with the added benefit of blaming inflation on them. However, one thing you can count on is the fact that high crime rates are the fault of the Democrats and being soft on crime.
So, let’s talk about crime. First, let’s take a look at national trends in crime. From 1990 to 2020, the crime rate went down and went down considerably. The two biggest dips in crime occurred during Bill Clinton and Barack Obama’s presidencies. Does this mean they were responsible? What we know is that crime remained fairly flat under George W. Bush overall and went up under Donald Trump.
If we focus on Texas we would see that Texas ranks 11th in the nation in terms of being dangerous on a per capita basis. Republicans have controlled both chambers in the Texas Legislature, the governor’s chair, and the lieutenant governor’s chair for nearly 20 years now. However, this hasn’t stopped them from blaming the Democrats for crime.
The big target in Texas are undocumented immigrants. Naturally, that might be something we would want to study. Sure enough, undocumented immigrants actually committed less crime than their native counterparts. In fact, it’s not particularly close. However, that just doesn’t feel like it’s true. The fact that red states are more dangerous than blue states doesn’t feel like it’s true. After all, isn’t New York, Portland, and Chicago a war zone? In actuality, when you look at crime rates (and not total crimes) the exact opposite is true.
Are Republicans to blame for crime? I’m not necessarily going there. I do think we need to start acknowledging some common sense facts about crime before we lose our collective heads. First, does anyone think real hardened criminals really think about sentencing before committing a crime? I was going to rob that store, but this Republican judge would give me 20 years instead of 10. Does anyone really believe that criminals actually think that way?
So, if harsher penalties don’t deter crime then what can we attribute an increase of crime to? Obviously, the first thing we need to do is acknowledge whether there is an increase in the first place and what that increase means in context with the data over a longer period of time. Is it statistically significant?
However, statistical significance and other high brow terms like that obviously confuses people. Their eyes glaze over. So, let’s set that aside and assume it is happening. Why? There are more Republican judges nationwide and in Texas than Democratic judges. It’s not sentencing. Our police departments have actually expanded during that time as well. Sure, we could double the police force, but I suspect that isn’t it either.
One thing conservatives seem to think is that allowing everyone unfettered access to guns will lower crime rates. Ask yourself this question: does that make any logical sense? However, I would suggest something else. People commit crimes when they are angry or anxious. They commit crimes when they think they need something they don’t have. They commit crimes because they are desperate. That points to the economy more than values, stiffer penalties, and even easy access to guns. Maybe that’s why crime goes down under Democrats. Maybe that’s why we saw a spike at the end of the last presidency. Of course, all of that doesn’t fit into a 30 second or 60 second television commercial. So, just be afraid. Very afraid.
Good topic Nick!
IMO a main reason for crime is the shrinking middle class with the wealth going more to the top. A strong middle class is beneficial for a health and civil society. Until then …
The correct penalties with the correct rehabilitation should help with crime. Some Democrats are too soft on crime and it’s destroyed many cities and towns in California and Oregon. My town is now a shithole with rampant drugs, crime and homelessness. Fact! …this is one reason WHY more people will vote Republican.
People need to be held accountable for their actions, otherwise it will keep being repeated and getting WORSE. Being a self centered human being, who has spent time in the gutter and on the shiny hill, I know this first hand.
We decriminalized way to many crimes and now crime is rampant. This IS the reality. You can now steal up to $950 and only get a ticket. Why stop? It’s now highly profitable to steal. This is way extreme, there is a better way with proper penalties and proper rehabilitation, but this ain’t it. And it’s been happening way before Covid.
“Prop 47, A ‘virtual get-out-of-jail-free card’
A new California law to reduce prison crowding keeps one addict out of jail, but not out of trouble”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/10/10/prop47/?utm_term=.8d5365742308
“California’s dangerous trifecta: AB109, Prop. 57 and Prop. 47”
1https://www.ocregister.com/2018/06/08/californias-dangerous-crime-trifecta/
The GOP pols who have run Texas have had at least 27 years to make this place a paradise, yet they love talking crime and immigration even though those are issues they’ve had plenty of opportunity to fix. I’ve already voted, and am about to leave on a trip. When I return I’ll know if I live in “crime ridden” Texas or one with plans for helping actual people.
2First, the repugnantican claims you mention above, Nick, are easy to make because their voters believe anything that comes out of their candidates’ mouths. That goes for both national and local R candidates. Around here, rampant crime is the lead headline in almost every one of their teevee commercials, followed by protecting second amendment rights to own any goddamn weapon. My mute button is almost worn out because I’m sick of hearing it.
3In this area of the NW, there are big shortages for filling vacancies in police departments. It’s not a function of funding. There are significant labor shortages in many other professions and industries as well, such as teachers, health workers, etc. Repugnantican candidates blame all that on democrats.
I keep stumbling across this TV add for Abbot about how a woman’s son was killed by a dangerous dude being released on bond that he violated multiple times.
The woman is complaining against Beto as in favor of such release on bond programs…and all I can think is, “but it happened under Governor Abbot. Why are you targeting Beto?”
4I think that perhaps crime goes up under Rethuglican governments because just like children, the populace at large is mimicking the behavior of their elected officials. I found a list on line last week as long of my arm listing State and Federal Rethug officials convictions of crimes from sexual assault to fraud. The only Dems listed were Al Franken and Weiner. I’ll come back later with the link once I track it down.
5Monkey see, Monkey do!
To TedinAustin @5, why was Al Franken in a list of officials convicted of sexual assault (or fraud)? I can’t find any evidence of a trial, let alone a conviction.
6“The Red State Murder Problem”
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red-state-murder-problem
7Conservatives have SHOWN at least twice that they are FOR crime and violence.
8Back a ways there was the useless, violent and criminal PROHIBITION. Then Nixon decided to start the War on Drugs for no good reason. It will not stop with so many making huge sums and slapping minorities. Conservatives are all about conserving hate, bigotry, violence (i.e. guns) and criminal profits.