Let’s Play Our Game: Iowa Edition
Hey, kids! It’s time once again to play everybody’s favorite quadrennial salon game: Guess Who’s Going to Win Iowa!
The rules are simple: predict the final outcomes including order of finish and percentage of vote for both the Democratic and Republican Iowa Presidential Caucuses. Whoever comes closest by FOX News debate invitation rules (ie I eyeball it and arbitrarily acclaim a winner) will win the admiration of your fellows and the right to add this to your resume.
Remember, folks, that while the GOP caucuses work in the staid traditional manner of a private ballot, the Democrats host raucus games of red rover, where you physically stand in an area designated for your team. If a candidate has less than 15% of any individual caucus group, (I’m looking at you, Martin!) then they have to leave or re-apportion among the other Democratic candidates.
Post ’em up!
~ Primo
I thought it was a drinking game. I guess I was wrong.
1Republicans: Ted Cruz, 54%, Donald Trump, 51% (How can that add up to more than 100% of the vote? Remember, these are Republicans counting the votes).
Democrats: Auntie Hillary: 51%, Uncle Bernie, 49% (The numbers add up all right, but remember it’s the Democratic National Committee that’s doing the counting).
The Public Interest? Loser, all the way around.
2Hey, Marge … we might hit the mark closer if we do throw down a few!! My preferred libation is Canadian bourbon & water over lots of ice! :o)
3The way this is going, I think it is going to be a close call for Hillary, Bernie will be a close second, and poor O’Malley won’t be able to find the back door!!
Percentages? Pish-posh … I never could do those doggone things, so this will have to do! LOL
It may be a drinking game after it’s over.
4Democratic Raw Scores:
Sanders 50
Clinton 47
O’Malley 3
Final: Sanders 51 Clinton 49
Republican Raw Scores:
Trump 35
Rubio 25
Cruz 20
Kasich 8
Carson 4
Christie 4
Paul 4
Post Food Fight: Trump 40 Rubio 34 Cruz 26
5Making no guesses about Iowa, but I am looking forward to Alaska’s raucous game of Red Rover in March. I hope these predictions about Hillary are wrong, because I’m so completely in the bag for Bernie. (Not in a drinking way.)
6Democratic scores:
Sanders 51
Clinton 49
O’Malley (Hasta la vista)
Republican scores:
Trump: 41
7Cruz: 35
Rubio: 24
It really doesn’t matter who wins the GOP primary, they will not win the general. These early primaries are indicative of nothing, so have at it, Marge, Marcia and Rhea. Drink up. Just remember the Santorum, Bachmann days. They both did well in early primaries and fell way back several months in. Thank god.
8maryelle, while it’s too early to uncork the champagne, it’s a given that HRC can beat anyone of the snacilbupeR from Rubio, Cruz, on down, but she doesn’t match up as well as Sen Sanders with the T-Rump. Our country is in a mood.
Some call it a populist mood. That’s a little over generalized. Bernie is a Democratic Socialist who appeals to progressives who understand that there’s still more work to be done after the 8 years of Dubya. We shifted so far right, that it will take more than incrementalism to get us back on course.
The pundit class likes to refer to T-Rump also as being part of a populist movement. They are so wrong. What he offers the rubes is an illusion “strong leadership.” What they miss was that it was already tried in Germany 75 years ago and the correct name is fascism. The snacilbupeR of today are aligned with the fin-de-siècle.
9I just read about tRump, the “short-finger ed vulgarian” on Gawker. It’s really funny.
10http://goo.gl/DxqerN
@Marcia. Though I am a Northerner (Minnesota), one of my favorite beverages is Bourbon. Some things are sacred, so I must correct you: there ain’t no such thing as Canadian Bourbon. No Tennessee bourbon either. Disclaimer: I am not a member of any alcohol distillers group or distributor.
11Oh, right, about the scores. I throw in with RepubAnon.
12Debbo, good thing Donnie’s bank account is huuuuuuuuge. Otherwise what they say about men with short fingers is the inverse of knowing a man by the caliber of his gun substitute.
13Democrats:
Clinton 52
Sanders 48
Stain on the Soul of America:
Trump 26
14Cruz 25
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Paul 4
Christie 3
Bush 3
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
I might go for one seven ounces beer, Corona, or a small glass of red wine–and a handful of Girl Scout cookies.
15I’d go for a mai tai on the beach. And the Girl Scout cookies. And an Eagle Scout.
16RHEA!!!! You hussy! (Evil grin. Wink.)
17Watch it, Rhea! My grandson is an Eagle scout and his younger brother is about to be. I’ve got my gimlet eye on you!
18While I’m not willing to get in the middle of a pee fight, I thought this whiskey site might help.
http://www.realmendrinkwhiskey.com/know-your-whiskey-the-difference-between-bourbon-and-scotch/
19Don’t put me in the competition but I like Nate Silver’s reference to Ann Selzer’s polling record at the Des Moines Register. Good reading.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/
BTW, my son now lives in the Quad Cities area and plans to participate in his first neighborhood Democratic caucus. He’ll share his personal impressions with me next week. If there’s anything notable or unusual, I’ll pass it along.
20Yay, Rhea! Stay clear of Gramiam.
21Cruz 55 percent, Trump 55 percent, nomination goes to Bush because that’s what the GOP wants.
Sanders 51 percent, Clinton 49 percent, nomination goes to Clinton because that’s what the DNC wants.
22Clinton by, oh, let’s say 53-47, at minimum.
Cruz over Trump 26-23 in the upset the talking heads will be babbling about, Rubio a close third with 20%.
23@Myrnatoo … oh, I know none of the so-called “Canadian” bourbons are not distilled in Canada but I prefer that bourbon to the other stuff. So … if it looks or sounds Canadian, I like it!! I’ve been working on a jug of Canadian Windsor … so that works for me!
24Sanders 54 / Clinton 46
25and
Trump 24 / Cruz 22 / Rubio 18 / Paul 14 / Bush 9 / Carson 7 / Christie 6 / Huckabee 4 / Kasich 3 / Santorum 2 / Fiorina 1.
Or less if the actual clown car they are all riding in in manages to pick up a few votes.
I think Hillary by a squeaker because there will probably be a lower turnout as a good chunk of Iowa is under blizzard warning Mon/Tues. For the Repugs, I think Trump for the same reason only more geo-specific.
The most rabid evangelicals are in the northwest part of the state, & that’s the area most likely to get slammed. Tend to be older folks, so you know they’re not going out in a blizzard since caucuses have to be in-person events. That’s more likely to affect the Cube-Nadian more than Trump.
26I swear (but very politely, mamma) that no matter who wins the R side of the caucuses, Trump will find a way to throw a hissy fit and run as an independent, most especially if at the convention the RNC goes with Bush #3. Someone else’s rules and regs have never fit El Donaldo, even in his cradle!
A sub-scenario that I find a tad doubtful right now: if Trump isn’t the one, he will slip-slide away to one of his many mansions without a fight where he can pretend not to hear the roar of appeals from his fans and whoever is the R choice will be trumped anyway by a dis-spirited turnout of Rs.
And no I do not drink! Not even anything alcoholic from Canada! I leave all of that to my many cousins. Cheers! Cousins! Enjoy!
27Dems: Clinton, 54; Sanders, 46
28Repubs: Cruz, 38; Trump, 35; Rubio, 26
Umpty – I read the splits on that poll with great interest and found a very interesting question very deep in it: do you think the system works for everyone or is rigged against all but the very rich and powerful.
Among likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers
Works 50%. Rigged 38%
Among likely Democratic Iowa caucus-goers
29Works 21%. Rigged 67%
i can tell you that the air waves in Iowa have been clogged with Ads for weeks now, Hillary and Bernie are very prevalent, but the most dominant adds have been anti Rubio and anti Cruz and they are sponsored by “Right To Rise” Jeb’s pack. It’s obvious that Rubio in particular, followed by Cruz have made an enemy of the Bush family! It remains to be seen what the long term fall out from this is.
My understanding of the caucus system is you have to have 10 percent of the vote to get a delegate so, you will have “undeclared voters who are actually O’Malley / Christie / etc voters who band together in the hopes of leveraging their vote for a player to be named later.
This is how it feels to me, with the additional observations that Daddy Was a Texan is correct about the evangelical vote, and the blizzard which his late Monday night and all day Tuesday.
Donald Trump 28 percent,
Ted Cruz 26 percent
Marco Rubio 15 percent.
Carson 10 percent
Rand Paul 5 percent.
Undeclared/undecided (Christie, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich and Santorum) 6 -10 percent
Hillary Clinton 46 percent
Sanders 44 percent,
Undeclared/O’Malley 10 percent
Plus or minus 3
Scotch always gets my vote! Isle of Jura if it is available.
30Just for fun, here’s a website that ranks presidential candidates by how useful they’d be in a bar fight. Last on the list, Ted Cruz of course:
“This isn’t just a warning about having Cruz on your side in a bar fight; don’t even enter the same bar as Cruz. That is because Ted Cruz is on nobody’s side in any fight but that of Ted Cruz.”
http://bitterempire.com/presidential-candidates-ranked-usefulness-bar-fight/
31Democrats have three choices, good, better and best. The snacilbupeR have many choices:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Oswzw3To8rw/Vq4TRs2Bb1I/AAAAAAAAQcE/LzK2rbmLKPI/s400/cartoon10-BenneC20160130_low.jpg
32PKM, the republican choices all have a noticeable similarity and it’s a howl!
33I’ll be attending my local caucus on Iowa City’s north side and standing for Bernie. . But in the best traditions of American politics if anyone wants to offer me a substantial bribe to switch in order to increase their chances of winning bragging rights in this JJTWMDBS contest, I’m all ears. ) : {>
34Sanders will beat Hillary by at least 5-10 points (O’Malley will make the final count).
Polls underestimate Sanders’ support because under-age-45 voters are not being polled in as large numbers as older voters (who have land lines, are retired, and LOVE to talk to total strangers on the phone for however long it takes to a answer 72-item questionnaire…)
Trump will beat Cruz by similar margin of 5-10 points, and no one else will be close.
Don’t worry, poll after poll demonstrates that Bernie can soundly trounce either one in the general election, by double-digits (and much greater margins that Hillary could).
The best quote about Trump or Cruz as the nominee comes from Lindsay Graham, who said if the choice is to be killed by poison or by gun, does it really matter which one you chose?
35CORRECTION to first sentence: O’Malley will NOT make the final count (due to caucus rules)
36Since it’s politics I’m going to cheat and just offer this via Nate Silver’s site:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/
I could have tried tossing a coin, but for the Repub side my poor coin would have soared, flipped, twisted, warped, melted and finally exploded in its escape to another dimension.
37@daChipster – Not sure I understand. Plenty of moneyed contenders in the past (who presumably have to wherewithal to rig things) have had their clocks cleaned in the Iowa primaries. Turnout will be everything, and the credit for that goes to the enthusiasm and effectiveness of candidates’ organizers at the local level in getting warm bodies to the caucuses.
As far as Democrats go, for the latest take on organizing at the grassroots level, check this out:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-may-win-iowa-after-all/
38First last and always, Wild Turkey.
In Iowa
Hillary 55 45 Bernie
tRump 68 30 Canadian Raphael, everyone else splits a statistical rounding error.
In New Hampster I see
Bernie 90+ <10 Hillary
tRump 80 there with everyone else splitting the rounding error.
The mass snacilbupeR candidate exodus should then begin.
By late summer, Hillary is the Dem nominee, tRump will be the final nominee of the snacilbupeR as we know them now.
Hillary will win in November, 2016. I cant yet reason who the Veep will be. I'd like to think Bernie would get the nod and accept.
39For the Repunks
Trump 38
Rubio 22
Ted 18 (yes, I’m naive, but hoping that disgusting threatening mailer of yesterday really hurts him)
Rest of the clown car: just divide 22% by however dang many of them are still in play.
Democrats:
40Hillary 49
Bernie 51
Micr, here’s a little Wild Turkey from my Granddad’s collection for you:
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=lacy+j+dalton+a+wild+turkey+youtube+video&ei=UTF-8&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-003
Been checking the Iowa weather and it’s just breaking my heart that Teddie’s Pervangelist corner might become snow bound.
41@pkm
Thanks! Yudaman!
42Clinton vs. Trump.
43Rick, I enjoyed the bar fight link, and agree with the #1 choice for the best fighter.
44The question of weather has to be considered, Have you checked the forecast for Iowa?? I’m holding off on making a
45guesstimate until I factor in the weather and the value of polling and getting a random sample with 40% of the landlines going the way of the buggy whip.
Not playing this game, but I’m hoping Bernie pulls off an upset.
46On the weather, it looks like the storm — no longer a blizzard — will hold off until after the caucuses.
47‘
As for predictions, the Democrats should give Bernie what will be his only win — or maybe he’ll win by less than 1% in NH — by 53-47 (ignoring Martin, who may not reach viability in any district). After Iowa, people are going to start getting serious and realize we can’t afford to support Bernie if it increases the chance of President Trump or Cruz — and it will.
‘
The key to the Republican vote is the fact that Iowa Republicans are some of the most extreme north of the Confederacy. Steve King, Steve Deace, Bob VanderPlaats, and the radio guy who came out for selling debtors into slavery ‘the Biblical way.’ So I expect that Trump and Cruz will split about 60% of the vote, with Trump probably coming out ahead by 33-27. (I also expect some sort of scandal involving the Trump campaign and either bussing unregistered voters or vote buying.)
‘
Bush will do better in Iowa than anywhere else, and will challenge Christie for third, with Rubio perhaps in the mix or just below them. The Carson bubble has pretty much collapsed, but Fiorina might do better than expected. The rest are insignificant — Kasich may get soe support, but not as much as expected and may be the next one to leave.
Democrats
Sanders 52%
Clinton 44%
O’Malley 4%
Republicans
Everybody Loses!
tRump 31.9%
48Cruz 25.5%
Rubio 16.4%
Carson 9%
Bush 5%
Paul 4%
Huckabee 2.5%
Christie 2.4%
Fiorina 2.3%
Santorum 1%
I believe that Hillary will have a better GOTV effort. The snow, which would have affected areas where I expected her to do better first, thus giving Bernie’s college towns more weight, will hold off. Martin will do well enough in a few caucuses to keep those votes, but I believe his folks in other areas will break about ¾ for Bernie. Clinton 51, Sanders 46, O’Malley 3
As for the snacilbupeR Clownmander in Chief, I think the snow holding off helps Trump and the Teavangelicals hold onto their votes. I think Carson and Bush are going to over perform at the expense of Cruz and Rubio.
Donny Trump 30%
49Doggie Dump (Cruz) 23%
Stabby Gump (Carson) 13%
Thirsty Stump (Rubio) 13%
Family Chump (Bush) 8%
Stoner Bump (Paul) 3%
Ginormous Rump (Christie) 2.5%
Frothy Sump (Santorum) 2.5%
Benign Lump (Kasich) 1.5%
Jesus Hump (Huckabee) 1%
Snarly Frump (Fiorina) – will owe votes back
Prup (aka Jim Benton), I look forward to drinking your liquor either tonight or tomorrow when daChipster hands out the prizes. Yes, your liquor because as we all know daChipster is a professional political operative, so it won’t be his booze.
In fact, I’m looking forward to drinks on you in NH, NV and SC, if daChipster is running the bar in those states, too.
I don’t know which pundits and polls you follow, but the negativity does not reflect the fact the Democrats have 3 quality candidates. Any of whom can and will beat anything the Klown Kar and Koch money can throw at them.
“Bush will do better in Iowa than anywhere else” …. does that mean you’re also throwing lunch and dinner into the mix? If, so, count me in!
50