Let’s Play Our Game: Iowa Edition
Hey, kids! It’s time once again to play everybody’s favorite quadrennial salon game: Guess Who’s Going to Win Iowa!
The rules are simple: predict the final outcomes including order of finish and percentage of vote for both the Democratic and Republican Iowa Presidential Caucuses. Whoever comes closest by FOX News debate invitation rules (ie I eyeball it and arbitrarily acclaim a winner) will win the admiration of your fellows and the right to add this to your resume.
Remember, folks, that while the GOP caucuses work in the staid traditional manner of a private ballot, the Democrats host raucus games of red rover, where you physically stand in an area designated for your team. If a candidate has less than 15% of any individual caucus group, (I’m looking at you, Martin!) then they have to leave or re-apportion among the other Democratic candidates.
Post ’em up!
~ Primo
Democratic caucus
Clinton 54
Sanders 44
O’Malley 2
GOP
1Trump 31
Cruz 24
Rubio 17
Carson 8
Bush 4
Paul 4
Huckabee 3
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
Christie 1
Santorum 1
Dems: Sanders 50, Clinton 46, MOM 4.
GOP: Cruz 27, Trump 27, Rubio 15, Carson 8, Bush 5, Paul 4, Kasich 3, pocket lint for the pocket lint.
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And, Prup is smoking crack if he thinks Sanders doesn’t win New Hampshire.
2I’m a little confused, but only at your comments about my ‘negativity.’ (If the drinks are on me, btw, the choices are Canadian Rye (but not the undrinkable Canadian Club — which is worse than even the cheapest Canadian Ltd.), calvados, reisling, or a passable Czech Beer (unless they revived Arrow 77 in Baltimore).)
3‘
We have two strong candidates in Hillary and O’Malley, and we have the oddity of Bernie. I will support him if he is nominated with every bit of strength in this shriveling body — but I REALLY hope he doesn’t get the nod. He’s too old (others are 73 or near it, have worked out all their lives, and look fit and strong for the hardest job. Then there are people like me who know more Jims than gyms, and who consider a work out to be walking up and down stairs. Ironically, the orange quacker is exactly two days older than I am,, but with the healthcare we’ve been able to afford, he looks ten years younger. Bernie is no gym rat either, and have you looked at Obama. He’s 55 and looks 66 after the eight years, and every President I have known has shown that aging), too much of an economic reductionist when I feel that our strongest arguments are on the social issues, which have brought people to our side, and I feel like he has tarnished what had been a great reputation — I’d put him in the Hall of Fame, more readily than the White House — by not criticizing the actions of some of his supporters, many of whom seem as fanatical — if on the good side — as Trump’s do on the bad side.
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I know, my syntax is worse than usual, have a doctor’s appointment and rushing this to get a needed shower. But PLEASE understand, compared to any of the Republicans, Bernie is a mountain next to the pile of leaves pasted together with second-hand dog food that the Republicans are offering. I’d have preferred a Gilliland, Warren, Klobuchar, Merkley or a few others to Hillary, on the age factor alone plus the undeserved baggage she has — and some deserved. But whever, we HAVE to not only elect them, but elect as many Congresspeople behind them as possible — and I”d put that number higher than most people.
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AND we have to work just as haard on the state legislative races that we have ignored these last six years. A Trump or Cruz and the Congress they would bring behind them, and the SCOTUS they would appoint, and the country wouldn’t survive — and I personally might not care if I did.
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“Will beat anything the Klown Kar…” (btw, if the nominee is Trump or Cruz, I do not expect the Koch Brothers will take that big a part. They aren’t refugees from a comic book, they d have an agenda, a bad one, but a consistent one, and neither is close to the Trump or Cruz agenda. They are MUCH more dangerous on the local levels.) I think the Klown Kar will lose to any of our three, but the key is Hillary has much the longer coattails. Her intelligence and experience has convinced heer she has to fight for the down ballot candidates — especially since she’s stuck with the feather-brained fool, DWS as head of the DNC.
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As for the Republicans, since I think the chice is between Trummp, Cruz, and who the Establishment picks as their designated loser. (I think they’d rather Lose With Cruz than with anyone else, so they c an avoid the drumbeat of “If we only had picked a REAL Conservative in 2020.) Therefore I am hoping for a big Cruz win, because Trump supporters are much more likely than Cruz ones to stay home if the other one is selected. As for the minor players, Rubio and Bush will cancel each other out — the Snyder comment kicks JEB! out of any serious consideration, and Rubio is proving to be the lightweight he looked like. I think there will be a push to Christie as the month goes along, as the face-saver for the RNC.
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All predictions subject to change without notice.
I know that most people are sure that Bernie will win NH and he may, but by a much closer margin. His likely win in Iowa is going to get the ground game from Hillary working, and NH is not the ;progressive dream house’ that parts of Vermont are.
4‘
And understand, I would have, and still do, put Bernie on my most admired list, just not n my Presidential list, for more than just age. Again, rushing, two more sentences, and then more after I am home. Hmm, one last thought on Bernie. One way of judging a candidate would be asking what position he’d get in the Administration if he dropped out. Hillary could fill any of several cabinet posts, or would make a good SCOTUS nominee. O’Malley might be my choice as VP, or for several cabinet slots like HUD, I could even see an Administration finding a use for one or two of the Republicans, Kasich or even Christie. But Bernie is and should be, most valuable as the gadfly of the Senate.
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Later, probably, and if I had the addresses, I’d already be lwrapping the packges of liquor bottles.