It’s Just Math…
The wailing and gnashing of teeth over calls for Biden to end his candidacy is 2016 all over again. I know many Salon customers hate it when I say it, but it’s true. Hillary was a terrible candidate. And, just like in 2016, I didn’t say unqualified, I said terrible candidate. She didn’t listen to local party operatives, walled herself off from everyone who disagreed with her, and ignored calls for her to emphasize battleground states like Michigan believing that she had the election sewed up. And we all know what happened. Did Comey and Russian meddling hurt? Absolutely, but it shouldn’t have been that close for that to have a material effect. Those are facts that we all knew before the election, yet Hillary and party leaders ignored all the flashing red lights and handed the White House to TFG.
The same goddam thing is happening again with Biden loyalists and the base. “Stay the course!” “Don’t change horses!” “The voters have spoken!” “If we change candidates, we’re going to lose like Humphrey!” “The Republicans will sue to keep a new candidate off the ballots!” So on and so forth. Here are the facts – THE ELECTION IS ALREADY LOST. Only a miracle, or a thoughtful change, can save it. Here are the battleground numbers as of TODAY:
TFG has a solid lead in every single battleground state and that’s unlikely to change. During his press conference a couple of nights ago, Biden said no poll shows he’s losing. They’re ALL showing he’s losing. Biden either lied, or, more likely, hasn’t been shown these polls. It’s just math.
Yes, yes, we all know that TFG is a lying gasbag, shitbag, convicted felon, rapist, and every other pejorative adjective you can summon. But that doesn’t mean a goddam thing to his voters. In fact, they LOVE that he’s a lying gasbag and convicted felon as it plays into his Earth II narrative that he’s none of those things, but rather a victim of persecution by the “deep state”. We’re not dealing with facts here folks, we dealing with people who don’t have a grip on reality. THAT is reality.
While we’re at it, let’s talk about all the handwringing over Republicans suing to keep the Dems from “changing candidates on state ballots”. First, there are no goddam ballots to change. Biden, and TFG, for that matter are not the nominees for president. There ARE no ballots, at least yet. That doesn’t happen until AFTER the conventions. Even then, there are mechanisms to change candidates, but that’s not what we’re talking about. We’re talking about replacing Biden before or during the convention. Suing to keep a new candidate off state ballots is a Republican talking point started by the Heritage Foundation (yes, that Heritage Foundation). Like everything else coming out of the Heritage Foundation, it’s bullshit, so stop repeating it, please. Here’s why.
Lastly, those of us calling for Biden to step aside are not “dividing the party” or “serving Republicans”. Republicans, including TFG are terrified that the Dems use their heads and change candidates to a dynamic new candidate. They LOVE running against Biden because they’re looking at the same numbers I am. The numbers with any other major candidate are worse for TFG.
In short, every number points to a loss if Biden stays on the ticket. Also, it increases greatly the chances of losing both the House and the Senate at the same time. Those are inconvenient facts. Ignoring those facts will lead to another TFG term in the White House and we should all be terrified of that.
All wrong. The election you should be studying is not 2016. It’s 1912.
1I love how everyone says we should switch to a “dynamic new candidate”, but no one puts a name to that. Or everyone puts a different name to that. Changing candidates now will just cause chaos and drive voters to a party that looks more stable. We have no unity, and that’s what will make us lose.
Stop doing the opposition’s work for them. All they have to do is point at people like you and say, “See? Even his own party thinks he’s bad.” You think that doesn’t affect polling, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
(Dunno why I bother typing in comments here. They never seem to come out of moderation)
2Harry@1 – IMO, if we are playing the political game using almost a century old rule book, losing is guaranteed. Heck, even 10 years old rules do not apply today any more.
3Polling is a snapshot in time and not meant to be predictive. Plus, are we talking likely voters, possible voters, or another definition they came up with? 1912 is interesting but let’s return to 2016. What else did that race teach us? It taught us that relying on polling is foolish. We are talking about a variety of factors we can’t possibly know for certain. First, do people that answer these answer honestly? Second, where do the folks stand that refused to answer? The science of polling allows us to make educated guesses there but we can’t know for sure. Yet it is the third factor that weighs most heavily.
What happens between now and November? Will Trump go to jail? I doubt it as the justice system appears to be breaking apart at the seams before our very eyes. Will there be an airing of more dirty laundry to the public on Epstein, 1/6, the Georgia case, or documents case that doesn’t provide a conviction but gets much needed info to swing voters? While that doesn’t impact his base (or 40 percent) it will impact the race on the margins.
I said my piece on Biden earlier this week. My stance has not fundamentally changed. What I am saying is that polling is an inexact science that people rely on too heavily for its predictive powers. It tells us definitively who would win if THOSE polled voted TODAY. That’s it. Anything more than that represents a guess. They can be educated guesses. They can inform strategy but even in this stratified race, there is way too much time on the clock to make pronouncements. It’s July for crying out loud. In most of Europe their election cycles would not even have begun yet.
4The Republicans are masters at voter suppression. And the national media loves the hits they get every time TFG opens his mouth.
It does not matter who the Ds run. Democrats do not care enough to vote.
What was the turnout in the Houston mayoral race and runoff? The developers are taking back Houston because Democrats do not vote.
And they won’t turnout for whatever candidate is on the ticket. But you can bet the rent money on the Rs voting.
Who was that Obama guy who was gonna get out the vote? Haven’t heard a word from his new money making scheme.
5What we need is a crystal ball. Because it’s a fact that some of us are right here in the Salon, some of us are wrong. The problem is, we do not know before November, who’s wrong, who’s right. (Well, of course there are more than 2 possible scenarios for November, but still.)
6I am seeing how right on the #1 Friday toon is even here in the salon. Even here, there will some “I told you so’s” come November and I’m just hoping we’re all not disappointed.
7Seems I’m in the minority here, but I think El Jefe is 100% right on this one. And I’d be thrilled if Kamala is made our candidate.
8Peon @ 2 – If you’ll read my post from a couple of days ago, you’ll find I listed 5 great dynamic candidates who could step into Biden’s shoes. My strong preference is either Witmer or Newsom. No one is doing “opposition’s work for them”. If you’ll look around, you’ll notice that the Repub’s strong preference to run against is Biden. There’s a reason for that.
9@ FrauFree & Nick – there is no crystal ball. Polls are all we have. This is not about divining the future. This is about risk management in a very short time frame, which is all we have. You use the tools available at the time you need to make a decision and the time for that decision is now.
10As I have stated elsewhere, I think the best and most “dynamic” candidate, with the least amount of baggage, would be Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigeig. As much as I love what Biden has done as President, he should resign now & let Kamala serve out the rest of his term. I think these are the only ways to save us from electoral defeat in November.
11If we were at the primary stage, the “replace Biden” arguments would have some merit. However, that’s not where we are – the primaries are over.
At this stage, the logistics of replacing Joe Biden with a different candidate simply aren’t feasible. For example:
1) The Biden Campaign’s money can’t be redirected to a different candidate (except maybe Kamala Harris). So, the new candidate would have no money and no field offices, with the election only a few months away.
2) The Republicans would file lawsuits seeking to bar the replacement candidate from appearing on the ballots – they’d likely demand that Joe Biden needed to stay on the ballot. Care to run a write-in campaign for the replacement candidate?
3) What are the odds that the Roberts Court would grant an emergency decree preventing any replacement candidate from appearing on the ballot?
12@ RepubAnon – To your points: 1) Irrelevant since the majority of money comes from PACs and Super PACs.
132) If you’ll read the post, I’ve already shot down your number 2.
3) Lawsuits: I answered that. READ THE POST.
file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/30/00/4052174A-28ED-4FDC-9DCE-E1B37B99F443/Attachment-1.png
14Never mind, it’s toon #1 I was trying to copy
15There is no alternate candidate. Gretchen Whitmer has already said no. No one likely has said yes, I doubt anyone else is up for a very likely losing campaign.
You may not like Biden, but the plane is way down the runway, at speed, past the point of no return.
16A Trump presidency means accelerating these RW groups. Whatever we do, we can’t afford another Trump presidency. Ya, I know someone will fill his void but…..read this scary shit-
https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-ziklag-secret-christian-charity-2024-election
17@El Jefe : I’ll admit that I didn’t click the link in your post. After doing so, I do not find the points made in that link persuasive.
I expect the Republicans would argue that the winner of the state primaries must be the one listed on the ballot. True, if the courts rule in accordance with the laws as written, it may be permissible for a different candidate to replace Joe Biden on the ballots.
However, I no longer believe the Supreme Court feels bound by the letter of the law where inventing something would help Trump’s campaign. I expect they’d find some way to issue an emergency stay until they could schedule a hearing – in, say, late October.
I also expect there’d be a sudden interest in actually enforcing the laws against SuperPACs coordinating with campaigns – for Democrats only, of course.
I’ll vote for the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate no matter who it is. I realize that the press is replaying their “anybody but Hillary” playbook against Biden. However, I remain firm in my belief that the costs of replacing Joe Biden at the top of
18(continued) However, I remain firm in my belief that the costs of replacing Joe Biden at the top of ballot far outweigh any potential benefits.
19Point taken El Jefe but that gate swings both ways. All of the polling suggesting all of those other candidates beating 45 also exist in a vacuum. They exist as a theoretical construct since the right wing noise machine hasn’t launched their noise against them. That was one of the points of my post. Give them a week or two and they’ll draft a new narrative. That narrative almost certainly will ding polling numbers. We can’t know by how much.
Democrats should have seen this coming. That was my main point. They blew an opportunity to groom a better candidate. I also would have preferred Newsom or Pete as they do a better job communicating outside our ecosystem. I certainly have no wisdom on how or if this should ge done at this point. I have no crystal ball and neither do the pollsters.
20Repubs on @ 17 – So you also didn’t read the article I linked to backing up my argument. Okay…
21Everybody here seems to have forgotten the spanner that the state of Ohio has thrown into the works. It requires the names of the nominees in order to be on the Ohio ballot by AUGUST 7, which is before the Dem convention takes place. There may well be a vote of the delegates beforehand, with a roll call vote for show later in the month.
22BarbinDC@22, the linked article in ElJefe’s post is talking about Ohio too. So no, Ohio is not forgotten.
23@ Barb – since you didn’t read the article refuting the very Heritage Foundation argument about Ohio you’re repeating , I’ll make it easy for you. Here’s the link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/no-state-laws-haven-t-locked-biden-onto-the-ballot/ar-BB1pNJdl
To wit: “When I ran Howell’s theory by election-law experts, they could not have dismissed it more emphatically. Biden isn’t the nominee until the Democratic National Committee officially nominates him, regardless of what he says, Rick Hasen, a law professor at UCLA, told me. Derek Muller, an election-law professor at the University of Notre Dame, said that a lawsuit based on Howell’s theory “would not go to discovery. It would get dismissed, and it might subject the lawyers to sanctions. I mean, that’s how frivolous I think a lawsuit would be.” Other election-law professors I spoke with called Heritage’s claims “an issue that doesn’t exist” and “nonsensical and completely inaccurate.” All agreed that there is no legal barrier to replacing Biden if he drops out of the race before the DNC officially nominates him.”
24I did read it and if my memory serves me, the DNC is thinking of moving up the nomination date to be well before the convention just in case. I believe it went as far as saying there may be as few as 10 days left to decide. I read it this morning so if I made this observation in error, I’m sure I’ll get corrected pretty quickly and emphatically. I did read some other stuff so maybe I’m confused.
25We have a real expert who says stay with Joe Biden, professor Allan Lichtman who has predicted the last 10 elections correctly, besides he has done a remarkable job. WTF, are we experiencing a Putin psyops wave or something? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a89KuOM3vVA&t=1s&ab_channel=AllanLichtman
26And now we have someone shot at trumpf and died for his stupidity. Watch the media go crazy over this for days. Conspiracy, conspiracy, conspiracy.
27Well… Trump or not, presidential candidates’ assassination attempt is pretty serious stuff. If I’m not mistaken, last time it happened, it was Reagan, 1981.
28The bad thing is, TFG is officially a martyr now. Whoever the shooter was, did definitely a huuuuge service to Trumps campaign.
I’m up late for unrelated reasons, but I’m still noodling all the news today including an assassination attempt on trumpf. I love this site because we all have the same goals. We may not agree but we respect each other’s opinions. Let’s always keep that in mind. Right now we need to elect Democrats in November more than ever!
29What FrauFree said. Ditto.
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